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TQQQCULT

Stocks · Started Oct 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
16.3%
Max Drawdown
47.6%
Trades
73
Win Trades
41.1%
Profit Factor
0.70
Win Months
47.5%

About this strategy



PROVEN TRACK RECORD AVERTING A BEAR MARKET AS DEMONSTRATED WITH MY OTHER SUCCESSFUL SYSTEM TQQQSQQQ WHICH HANDLED THE MAJOR DECLINE OF FEBRUARY 20 WITH EASE

STRATEGY HAS BEEN FURTHER OPTIMIZED SINCE STARTING TQQQSQQQ

YOU CAN TRADE WITH AS LITTLE AS 5,000

IRA FRIENDLY

Trading is risky, you may lose money doing so.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202130.217.9-11.336.2
2022-13.030.7-20.6-10.0-23.45.95.70.235.9-24.08.8-5.2-25.5
2023-7.011.619.6-20.27.67.1-19.8-17.3-15.90.716.311.4-16.9
2024-10.8-2.9-16.6-4.85.1-4.418.0-2.519.6-9.50.1-4.9-18.2
2025-13.515.45.214.4-3.4-12.5-12.07.03.33.22.64.99.6
2026-17.7-14.00.0-33.685.1-43.1-9.9-35.4-66.4162.1-90.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/4/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$18,750
Age62 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades73
# Profitable30
% Profitable41.1%
Avg trade duration26.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown47.6%
drawdown periodFeb 14, 2022 - April 18, 2022
Cumul. Return8.6%
Avg win$1,297
Avg loss$1,267

Ratios

W:L ratio0.71
Sharpe Ratio-0.09
Sortino Ratio-0.16
Calmar Ratio-0.89

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.08
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life75.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)6.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)16.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-29.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity2407.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss80.0%
Chance of 20% account loss65.0%
Chance of 30% account loss43.0%
Chance of 40% account loss23.5%
Chance of 50% account loss5.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)538
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,267
Avg Win$1,297
# Winners30
Sum Trade PL (losers)$54,492
Sum Trade PL (winners)$38,922
Num Months Winners29
# Losers43
% Winners41.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table62

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)38454.05
Avg Position Time (hrs)640.90
Avg Trade Length26.70
Last Trade Ago1700

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.73
Daily leverage (max)10.57

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta-0.45
Treynor Index0.07

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.48
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.09
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.79
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-2.57
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.11
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats66.52
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats89.63
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.28
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.21
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.57

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.54
SD0.64
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.72
df5
t0.60
p0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.52
Sortino ratio2.01
Upside Potential Ratio4.01
Upside part of mean1.08
Downside part of mean-0.54
Upside SD0.54
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms2
N of observations6
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion0.54
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.64
Covariance0.05
r0.39
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.43
Mean Square Error0.43
DF error4
t(b)0.84
p(b)0.22
t(a)0.46
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.03
Treynor index (mean / b)0.45
Jensen alpha (a)0.43
Mean0.38
SD0.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.55
df5
t0.46
p0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.34
Sortino ratio1.32
Upside Potential Ratio3.32
Upside part of mean0.96
Downside part of mean-0.58
Upside SD0.46
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms2
N of observations6
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.38
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.59
Covariance0.04
r0.34
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.38
DF error4
t(b)0.73
p(b)0.25
t(a)0.35
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.74
Treynor index (mean / b)0.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
VaR(95%)0.22
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.27
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
Mean0.53
SD0.92
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.58
df140
t0.43
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.25
Sortino ratio1.38
Upside Potential Ratio10.75
Upside part of mean4.16
Downside part of mean-3.62
Upside SD0.83
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms72
N negative terms69
N of observations141
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion0.53
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.92
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.46
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.60
Mean Square Error0.84
DF error139
t(b)1.04
p(b)0.44
t(a)0.42
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.00
Treynor index (mean / b)1.17
Jensen alpha (a)0.52
Mean0.19
SD0.80
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.23
df140
t0.17
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.90
Sortino ratio0.47
Upside Potential Ratio9.80
Upside part of mean3.89
Downside part of mean-3.70
Upside SD0.69
Downside SD0.40
N nonnegative terms72
N negative terms69
N of observations141
Mean of predictor0.01
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.80
Covariance0.02
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.48
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.64
DF error139
t(b)1.27
p(b)0.43
t(a)0.17
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.33
Treynor index (mean / b)0.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.26
SD0.95
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.27
df130
t0.19
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.04
Sortino ratio0.64
Upside Potential Ratio10.22
Upside part of mean4.08
Downside part of mean-3.83
Upside SD0.85
Downside SD0.40
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms67
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.05
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.95
Covariance0.01
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.90
DF error129
t(b)0.78
p(b)0.46
t(a)0.21
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.93
Treynor index (mean / b)0.71
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
Mean-0.11
SD0.82
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.13
df130
t-0.09
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.64
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.64
Sortino ratio-0.27
Upside Potential Ratio9.27
Upside part of mean3.80
Downside part of mean-3.91
Upside SD0.71
Downside SD0.41
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms67
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.07
Mean of criterion-0.11
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.82
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.68
DF error129
t(b)0.97
p(b)0.45
t(a)-0.07
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.40
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.22
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.28
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.86
Quartile 10.91
Median1.04
Quartile 31.10
Maximum1.36
Mean of quarter 10.87
Mean of quarter 21.03
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.24
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations141
Minimum0.91
Quartile 10.97
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.55
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.25
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum0.91
Quartile 10.97
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.55
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.25
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.64
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.16
Quartile 10.16
Median0.16
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.40
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.37
Inter Quartile Range0.20
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.05
Quartile 30.28
Maximum0.40
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.37
Inter Quartile Range0.27
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-300975744
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)63
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.46
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.51
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.16
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.87
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.24
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.60
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.64
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.49
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.20
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.21
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.79

Trading record

Placed 132 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
UCO short140Mar 10, 2022Mar 17, 2022($223)
UVXY long1250Mar 8, 2022Mar 9, 2022($2,230)
UVXY long1100Mar 7, 2022Mar 8, 2022$2,448
TQQQ long562Mar 4, 2022Mar 4, 2022($365)
UVXY long1250Mar 4, 2022Mar 4, 2022($93)
YINN long4600Mar 4, 2022Mar 4, 2022($51)
YINN long4424Mar 2, 2022Mar 4, 2022($4,164)
YINN long827Feb 14, 2022Mar 1, 2022($1,204)
GBTC long237Feb 14, 2022Mar 1, 2022$303
LABU long387Feb 14, 2022Mar 1, 2022($678)
UCO long56Feb 14, 2022Mar 1, 2022$1,014
GRN long975Feb 14, 2022Mar 1, 2022($1,934)
YANG2218B17 long250Feb 11, 2022Feb 14, 2022$12,150
SQQQ long500Feb 8, 2022Feb 9, 2022($1,373)
TQQQ long421Jan 24, 2022Feb 8, 2022($866)
USO long120Jan 19, 2022Feb 3, 2022$141
GRN long240Jan 19, 2022Feb 3, 2022$1,224
TQQQ long120Jan 20, 2022Jan 21, 2022($1,287)
TQQQ long360Jan 7, 2022Jan 19, 2022($1,921)
TNA long298Dec 23, 2021Jan 6, 2022($1,580)
TQQQ long55Dec 23, 2021Dec 23, 2021($10)
TMF long400Dec 22, 2021Dec 23, 2021($323)
JDST long1400Dec 22, 2021Dec 23, 2021($764)
EDC long180Dec 22, 2021Dec 22, 2021($6)
TMF long500Dec 21, 2021Dec 22, 2021$337
UVXY long970Dec 21, 2021Dec 22, 2021($32)
SQQQ long2000Dec 21, 2021Dec 21, 2021($65)
SVXY long80Dec 20, 2021Dec 21, 2021$126
USO long60Dec 20, 2021Dec 21, 2021$83
GRN long100Dec 20, 2021Dec 21, 2021($83)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.