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Alpha Surplus Fund

Equity · Stocks · Started Jun 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-0.2%
Max Drawdown
21.8%
Trades
248
Win Trades
67.7%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
4.7%

Sector Rotation Pairs Trading / Relative Value

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202110.49.45.1-21.80.00.00.0-0.8
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/4/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$250,000
Age65 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades248
# Profitable168
% Profitable67.7%
Avg trade duration11.0 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown21.8%
drawdown periodSept 02, 2021 - Sept 20, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)-0.2%
Avg win$1,107
Avg loss$2,269

Ratios

W:L ratio1.03
Sharpe Ratio-0.11
Sortino Ratio-0.17
Calmar Ratio0.11

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life82.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-84.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-0.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity27.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.1%
Percent Trades Options0.1%
Short Options - Percent Covered48.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.8%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss65.5%
Chance of 20% account loss31.5%
Chance of 30% account loss5.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,269
Avg Win$1,107
# Winners168
Sum Trade PL (losers)$181,514
Sum Trade PL (winners)$185,936
Num Months Winners3
# Losers80
% Winners67.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1020

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table65

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)657.28
Avg Position Time (hrs)10.95
Avg Trade Length0.50
Last Trade Ago1842

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)4.62
Daily leverage (max)27.29

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.74

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-24.80
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-3.32
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.85
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.55
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.03
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.11
df10
t0.11
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.16
Sortino ratio0.16
Upside Potential Ratio1.30
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms8
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error9
t(b)0.10
p(b)0.46
t(a)0.06
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.78
Treynor index (mean / b)1.33
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
Mean-0.00
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.01
df10
t-0.01
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.03
Sortino ratio-0.02
Upside Potential Ratio1.10
Upside part of mean0.25
Downside part of mean-0.25
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms8
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.01
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error9
t(b)0.15
p(b)0.44
t(a)-0.06
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.76
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
Mean0.03
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.11
df248
t0.10
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.12
Sortino ratio0.16
Upside Potential Ratio3.71
Upside part of mean0.63
Downside part of mean-0.61
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms46
N negative terms203
N of observations249
Mean of predictor0.68
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error247
t(b)0.68
p(b)0.25
t(a)0.02
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.53
Treynor index (mean / b)0.88
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
Mean-0.01
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.02
df248
t-0.02
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.99
Sortino ratio-0.03
Upside Potential Ratio3.48
Upside part of mean0.62
Downside part of mean-0.62
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms46
N negative terms203
N of observations249
Mean of predictor0.61
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error247
t(b)0.70
p(b)0.24
t(a)-0.09
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.49
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.16
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.19
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.08
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6793671894630400
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.77748595371696e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations11
Minimum0.81
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.81
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations249
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low25
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high46
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.30
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.19
Quartile 10.19
Median0.19
Quartile 30.19
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.05
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.23
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.42
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.35
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-400250656
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)18
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.12
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.15
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.16
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.72
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 869 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@ES Z1long10Sep 17, 2021Sep 20, 2021($24,268)
SPY long5000Sep 17, 2021Sep 20, 2021($9,978)
@RTY Z1long1Sep 17, 2021Sep 17, 2021$412
SPY2117I443 long114Sep 17, 2021Sep 17, 2021$1,910
SPY2124U442 short10Sep 17, 2021Sep 17, 2021($386)
SPY2117U442 short15Sep 17, 2021Sep 17, 2021($319)
SPY2130I447 short34Sep 16, 2021Sep 16, 2021($1,143)
SPY long3400Sep 16, 2021Sep 16, 2021$3,068
SPY2117I447 long240Sep 16, 2021Sep 16, 2021$5,327
IWM long500Sep 16, 2021Sep 16, 2021($713)
SPY2117U447 short20Sep 16, 2021Sep 16, 2021($4,453)
FB long1300Sep 15, 2021Sep 15, 2021$1,295
WYNN long3000Sep 15, 2021Sep 15, 2021$1,441
IWM long1000Sep 14, 2021Sep 14, 2021$268
QQQ long1000Sep 14, 2021Sep 14, 2021$377
SPY long900Sep 14, 2021Sep 14, 2021$271
SPY2117U446 short10Sep 14, 2021Sep 14, 2021$907
XLRE long1300Sep 10, 2021Sep 13, 2021$80
XLU long900Sep 10, 2021Sep 13, 2021$113
QQQ long1700Sep 10, 2021Sep 13, 2021$2,084
SPY long2300Sep 10, 2021Sep 13, 2021$4,123
IWM2110I226 long470Sep 8, 2021Sep 9, 2021($10,216)
@RTY U1long32Sep 7, 2021Sep 8, 2021($30,287)
IWM long2000Sep 8, 2021Sep 8, 2021($484)
IWM long1900Sep 7, 2021Sep 7, 2021($829)
IWM long1400Sep 7, 2021Sep 7, 2021$872
IWM long7000Sep 7, 2021Sep 7, 2021($2,898)
AAL long3000Sep 7, 2021Sep 7, 2021$95
CCL long3000Sep 7, 2021Sep 7, 2021$273
SPY long2500Sep 7, 2021Sep 7, 2021$313

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.