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Just E mini SP500

Futures · Futures, Forex · Started Feb 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
22.5%
Max Drawdown
60.2%
Trades
430
Win Trades
52.6%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
18.8%

About this strategy

This strategy will not trade forex anymore, it will only trade Futures now: E mini SP 500.. by the way, this was a C2star strategy of Forex before, after it lost verification, it changed to trade Futures by new rules.

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2021-0.2-2.610.90.4-0.65.63.6-1.51.84.3-5.516.4
20225.8-0.9-4.418.1-4.072.417.08.16.52.20.00.0170.1
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/24/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$23,844
Age69 months
What it tradesFutures, Forex
# Trades430
# Profitable226
% Profitable52.6%
Avg trade duration18.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown60.2%
drawdown periodOct 13, 2022 - Oct 18, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)22.5%
Avg win$751
Avg loss$550

Ratios

W:L ratio1.51
Sharpe Ratio0.63
Sortino Ratio0.93
Calmar Ratio1.28

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life95.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)115.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)22.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)24.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity1.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.4%
Percent Trades Futures0.6%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss37.0%
Chance of 20% account loss31.5%
Chance of 30% account loss16.5%
Chance of 40% account loss5.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated56.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$550
Avg Win$751
# Winners226
Sum Trade PL (losers)$112,271
Sum Trade PL (winners)$169,620
Num Months Winners14
# Losers204
% Winners52.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table69

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1134
Avg Position Time (hrs)18.90
Avg Trade Length0.80
Last Trade Ago1449

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.89
Daily leverage (max)44.54

Regression

Alpha0.07
Beta0.04
Treynor Index1.55

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-8.96
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.35
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats54.41
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats52.63
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.59
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.16
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.11

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.59
SD0.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.20
df27
t1.88
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.55
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.52
Sortino ratio11.33
Upside Potential Ratio12.87
Upside part of mean0.67
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.50
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms15
N of observations28
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.59
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.48
Covariance-0.03
r-0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.69
Mean Square Error0.23
DF error26
t(b)-1.10
p(b)0.86
t(a)2.13
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.68
Jensen alpha (a)0.69
Mean0.50
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.28
df27
t2.01
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.60
Sortino ratio9.36
Upside Potential Ratio10.89
Upside part of mean0.58
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.39
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms15
N of observations28
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.50
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance-0.02
r-0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.58
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error26
t(b)-1.20
p(b)0.88
t(a)2.27
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.10
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.56
Jensen alpha (a)0.58
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.62
SD0.50
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.26
df614
t1.93
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.54
Sortino ratio2.01
Upside Potential Ratio4.20
Upside part of mean1.30
Downside part of mean-0.68
Upside SD0.39
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms191
N negative terms424
N of observations615
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.62
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.50
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.61
Mean Square Error0.25
DF error613
t(b)0.57
p(b)0.28
t(a)1.88
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.25
Treynor index (mean / b)13.95
Jensen alpha (a)0.61
Mean0.49
SD0.52
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.94
df614
t1.45
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.34
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.23
Sortino ratio1.26
Upside Potential Ratio3.17
Upside part of mean1.24
Downside part of mean-0.75
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms191
N negative terms424
N of observations615
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.49
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.52
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.48
Mean Square Error0.27
DF error613
t(b)0.69
p(b)0.25
t(a)1.40
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.15
Treynor index (mean / b)8.70
Jensen alpha (a)0.48
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.29
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.22
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6740647302135808
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.12801973442545e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations28
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.69
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.20
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.30
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.49
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations615
Minimum0.57
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.40
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low98
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high121
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.87
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.69
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations29
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.54
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.33
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.75
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.59
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-512218048
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)5
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.69
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)14.14
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs14.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.13
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.69
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.28
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.81
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.96
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 342 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@ES Z2long4Oct 25, 2022Oct 25, 2022$268
@ES Z2long10Oct 25, 2022Oct 25, 2022$3,983
@ES Z2short5Oct 25, 2022Oct 25, 2022$398
@ES Z2long10Oct 24, 2022Oct 24, 2022$6,858
@ES Z2long15Oct 24, 2022Oct 24, 2022$943
@ES Z2long10Oct 24, 2022Oct 24, 2022($2,143)
@ES Z2long10Oct 24, 2022Oct 24, 2022$1,733
@ES Z2short10Oct 24, 2022Oct 24, 2022($4,205)
@ES Z2short10Oct 24, 2022Oct 24, 2022$1,358
XG Z2short5Oct 24, 2022Oct 24, 2022$11,501
@ES Z2long2Oct 24, 2022Oct 24, 2022($466)
XG Z2short4Oct 21, 2022Oct 21, 2022$2,638
@ES Z2short2Oct 21, 2022Oct 21, 2022$934
XG Z2short4Oct 21, 2022Oct 21, 2022$6,338
XG Z2short5Oct 21, 2022Oct 21, 2022$762
@RTY Z2short2Oct 21, 2022Oct 21, 2022$344
XG Z2short4Oct 21, 2022Oct 21, 2022$9,174
@ES Z2short3Oct 20, 2022Oct 21, 2022$1,139
@ES Z2long3Oct 20, 2022Oct 20, 2022$1,014
@RTY Z2short5Oct 19, 2022Oct 19, 2022($1,690)
@RTY Z2short10Oct 19, 2022Oct 19, 2022($655)
@RTY Z2long10Oct 18, 2022Oct 18, 2022$3,120
@MES Z2long1Oct 17, 2022Oct 18, 2022$173
@ES Z2long5Oct 18, 2022Oct 18, 2022($140)
@ES Z2short8Oct 13, 2022Oct 13, 2022($44,478)
@ES Z2short1Oct 13, 2022Oct 13, 2022($8)
@ES Z2short3Oct 12, 2022Oct 13, 2022$7,954
@ES Z2long4Oct 12, 2022Oct 12, 2022$303
@ES Z2long4Oct 12, 2022Oct 12, 2022($676)
@ES Z2short2Oct 12, 2022Oct 12, 2022($1,213)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.