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future

Futures · Started Feb 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
331.9%
Max Drawdown
33.2%
Trades
437
Win Trades
49.7%
Profit Factor
6.30
Win Months
13.0%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2021-0.18.47.6-2.6-3.16.60.62.05.24.0-1.329.9
20223.3-0.1-17.3-0.4503.7-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0413.2
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/24/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$40,000
Age69 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades437
# Profitable217
% Profitable49.7%
Avg trade duration7.2 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown33.2%
drawdown periodMarch 17, 2022 - March 22, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)331.9%
Avg win$1,275
Avg loss$199

Ratios

W:L ratio6.32
Sharpe Ratio0.44
Sortino Ratio6.54
Calmar Ratio10.97

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life95.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)565.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)331.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)3.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)40.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss30.5%
Chance of 20% account loss6.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated97.5%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)511
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$199
Avg Win$1,275
# Winners217
Sum Trade PL (losers)$43,753
Sum Trade PL (winners)$276,616
Num Months Winners10
# Losers220
% Winners49.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table69

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)430.35
Avg Position Time (hrs)7.17
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago1591

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.90
Daily leverage (max)19.56

Regression

Alpha0.15
Beta0.22
Treynor Index0.73

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0.51
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.47
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats55.89
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats68.85
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.19
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.37
Hold-and-Hope Ratio1.96

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.21
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.88
df12
t0.97
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.79
Sortino ratio1.44
Upside Potential Ratio2.72
Upside part of mean0.39
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms4
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance-0.00
r-0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.24
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error11
t(b)-0.52
p(b)0.69
t(a)1.05
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.74
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.86
Jensen alpha (a)0.24
Mean0.18
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.76
df12
t0.84
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.66
Sortino ratio1.18
Upside Potential Ratio2.44
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms4
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.01
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error11
t(b)-0.55
p(b)0.70
t(a)0.93
p(a)0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.72
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.71
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.19
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.93
df304
t1.00
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.74
Sortino ratio1.17
Upside Potential Ratio4.88
Upside part of mean0.79
Downside part of mean-0.60
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms125
N negative terms180
N of observations305
Mean of predictor0.00
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)3.59
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error303
t(b)0.62
p(b)0.27
t(a)1.00
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Treynor index (mean / b)4.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
Mean0.17
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.80
df304
t0.87
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.62
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.62
Sortino ratio0.99
Upside Potential Ratio4.60
Upside part of mean0.78
Downside part of mean-0.61
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms125
N negative terms180
N of observations305
Mean of predictor-0.01
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error303
t(b)0.53
p(b)0.30
t(a)0.87
p(a)0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Treynor index (mean / b)4.34
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.17
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.65
df130
t-0.47
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.12
Sortino ratio-0.76
Upside Potential Ratio2.49
Upside part of mean0.57
Downside part of mean-0.74
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms92
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.26
Mean of criterion-0.17
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.16
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error129
t(b)0.49
p(b)0.47
t(a)-0.42
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.11
Jensen alpha (a)-0.16
Mean-0.21
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.76
df130
t-0.54
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.54
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.01
Sortino ratio-0.87
Upside Potential Ratio2.32
Upside part of mean0.56
Downside part of mean-0.77
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms92
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.28
Mean of criterion-0.21
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.20
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error129
t(b)0.41
p(b)0.48
t(a)-0.50
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.57
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.41
Jensen alpha (a)-0.20
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations13
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11.00
Median1.03
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.86
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.85
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations305
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low35
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high47
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low18
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high19
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.01
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.60
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.05
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations24
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.35
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-307891872
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)5
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.24
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.23
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.65
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.65
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.09
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.77
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.42
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.80
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.16
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-4.76

Trading record

Placed 271 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QCL J2short2Mar 18, 2022Jun 10, 2022$211,374
QCL J2short1Mar 17, 2022Mar 17, 2022$622
@MYM H2long8Mar 17, 2022Mar 17, 2022$532
@MYM H2short8Mar 17, 2022Mar 17, 2022$64
@MYM H2short8Mar 16, 2022Mar 16, 2022$512
@MYM H2long8Mar 14, 2022Mar 15, 2022$768
@MYM H2short8Mar 14, 2022Mar 14, 2022($24)
@MYM H2short14Mar 10, 2022Mar 10, 2022($815)
@MYM H2long8Mar 9, 2022Mar 9, 2022$252
@MYM H2long8Mar 9, 2022Mar 9, 2022$276
QCL J2short1Mar 9, 2022Mar 9, 2022$1,612
@MYM H2short24Mar 8, 2022Mar 8, 2022$1,741
@MYM H2short8Mar 8, 2022Mar 8, 2022$52
@MYM H2short16Mar 8, 2022Mar 8, 2022$117
DXM H2long2Mar 7, 2022Mar 7, 2022($516)
@MYM H2short16Mar 7, 2022Mar 7, 2022$1,505
@MYM H2short27Mar 7, 2022Mar 7, 2022($3,051)
DXM H2long2Mar 7, 2022Mar 7, 2022$1,012
QCL J2short1Mar 7, 2022Mar 7, 2022$2,122
QCL J2short1Mar 7, 2022Mar 7, 2022($278)
QCL J2short1Mar 7, 2022Mar 7, 2022($453)
@MYM H2short5Mar 7, 2022Mar 7, 2022($128)
QCL J2short1Mar 7, 2022Mar 7, 2022($288)
QCL J2short1Mar 6, 2022Mar 6, 2022($513)
QCL J2short1Mar 6, 2022Mar 6, 2022($68)
QCL J2short1Mar 6, 2022Mar 6, 2022($613)
@MYM H2short5Mar 6, 2022Mar 6, 2022$219
@MYM H2short5Mar 4, 2022Mar 4, 2022($271)
@MYM H2short3Mar 4, 2022Mar 4, 2022($18)
@MYM H2short3Mar 4, 2022Mar 4, 2022$377

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.