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finantic XLI Strategy

Equity · Stocks · Started Jan 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-0.9%
Max Drawdown
13.7%
Trades
264
Win Trades
62.1%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
4.3%

About this strategy

The finantic XLI strategy trades the components of the S&P 1500 Index.
There are only market orders submitted a few hours before markets open.
Long positions for stocks only.
There is one ETF short position.
Hold time is at least two days.
Position sizes are variable but limited to 30% of available capital.
A single order size is limited to 15% of available capital.

<b>XLI</b> is an ETF: Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund
XLI tracks a market-cap-weighted index of industrial-sector stocks drawn from the S&P 500.

We use advanced indicators, advanced statistical methods and machine learning to identify high probability trades.

Driven by Quantacula (see www.quantacula.com)

Hedged Equity

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20210.7-5.60.51.7-2.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-5.4
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/2/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age71 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades264
# Profitable164
% Profitable62.1%
Avg trade duration5.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown13.7%
drawdown periodFeb 10, 2021 - March 09, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)-0.9%
Avg win$220
Avg loss$399

Ratios

W:L ratio0.91
Sharpe Ratio-0.68
Sortino Ratio-0.91
Calmar Ratio-0.28

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life103.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-110.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-0.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-0.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity10.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss33.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.4%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$399
Avg Win$220
# Winners164
Sum Trade PL (losers)$39,907
Sum Trade PL (winners)$36,135
Num Months Winners3
# Losers100
% Winners62.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct219

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table70

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)8186.93
Avg Position Time (hrs)136.45
Avg Trade Length5.70
Last Trade Ago1989

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.62
Daily leverage (max)2.05

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.53

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-8.97
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.48
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.55
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.13
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.11

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.06
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.42
df10
t-0.44
p0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.61
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.64
Sortino ratio-0.56
Upside Potential Ratio0.86
Upside part of mean0.09
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms9
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.64
Mean of criterion-0.06
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.01
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.09
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error9
t(b)0.41
p(b)0.34
t(a)-0.56
p(a)0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.21
Jensen alpha (a)-0.09
Mean-0.07
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.50
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.46
df10
t-0.48
p0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.59
Sortino ratio-0.61
Upside Potential Ratio0.79
Upside part of mean0.09
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms9
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.57
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.01
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error9
t(b)0.42
p(b)0.34
t(a)-0.60
p(a)0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.26
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean-0.06
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.74
df261
t-0.74
p0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.22
Sortino ratio-0.99
Upside Potential Ratio4.42
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.33
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms45
N negative terms217
N of observations262
Mean of predictor0.78
Mean of criterion-0.06
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error260
t(b)1.16
p(b)0.12
t(a)-0.88
p(a)0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.09
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.96
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
Mean-0.06
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.78
df261
t-0.78
p0.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.18
Sortino ratio-1.03
Upside Potential Ratio4.36
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.33
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms45
N negative terms217
N of observations262
Mean of predictor0.71
Mean of criterion-0.06
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error260
t(b)1.17
p(b)0.12
t(a)-0.91
p(a)0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.09
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.26
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.13
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6801353980510208
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.87027555593347e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations11
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.60
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations262
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low47
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high46
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.63
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.10
Quartile 10.10
Median0.10
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-516863296
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)27
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.40
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.47
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.28
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.28
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.32
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EMR long31May 6, 2021May 10, 2021$157
INTU long10May 6, 2021May 10, 2021$74
CTAS long9May 6, 2021May 10, 2021$99
MSI long40May 5, 2021May 10, 2021$652
GE long202May 5, 2021May 10, 2021$73
BA long22May 5, 2021May 10, 2021$138
ISRG long10May 5, 2021May 10, 2021$45
CCL long101May 5, 2021May 10, 2021($14)
EXPE long49May 4, 2021May 10, 2021$11
INTC long246May 3, 2021May 10, 2021($113)
DE long38Apr 30, 2021May 10, 2021$316
TFX long48Apr 30, 2021May 10, 2021($236)
TYL long49Apr 30, 2021May 10, 2021($520)
PKI long164Apr 30, 2021May 10, 2021$585
SNPS long146Apr 28, 2021May 10, 2021($605)
CDNS long320Apr 28, 2021May 10, 2021($537)
HOLX long993Apr 26, 2021May 10, 2021($2,431)
IR long178Apr 30, 2021May 6, 2021($100)
KSU long26May 3, 2021May 6, 2021$31
EMR long66May 3, 2021May 6, 2021($30)
WAB long35May 4, 2021May 6, 2021$18
AMGN long71Apr 29, 2021May 5, 2021$568
CDK long69May 3, 2021May 5, 2021$54
CTAS long10May 3, 2021May 5, 2021$43
CCL long122Apr 30, 2021May 4, 2021$57
BA long31Apr 29, 2021May 4, 2021($21)
GE long795Apr 28, 2021May 3, 2021($78)
CTAS long14Apr 29, 2021May 3, 2021$32
CHRW long62Apr 29, 2021May 3, 2021$196
CTSH long112Apr 26, 2021Apr 28, 2021$155

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.