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QQQ Short Strangle NLT

Options · Options · Started Dec 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
3.7%
Max Drawdown
26.9%
Trades
100
Win Trades
80.0%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
18.3%

About this strategy

This strategy will be discontinued by the end of March 2022. Thank you everyone who has simulated and or subscribed to my strategy. This will be my insights on the strategy since they have changed over the past couple of years. With a standard margin account it is not worth selling strangles since they tie up a large amount of capital with putting a cap on the profits. In a portfolio margin account the capital requirements would be significantly cheaper and can make the strategy viable long term. With the leftover capital one could have offsetting trades to act as hedges for when the market moves quickly in either direction. When implied volatility is high (30+) selling and managing strangles is much smoother than low volatility (under 20). The belief and goal of this strategy was that one could place these trades routinely and manage through it. the past 6 months has proven that to be incorrect. Research has been done on SPY short strangles by Tastytrade. However I personally feel the short term capital losses are too great for any potential long term gains. This strategy can only be done in a taxable non retirement account so one would have to pay taxes on all net gains. In my opinion one would have to beat a buy and hold strategy by double to make this worth it. I am now going to focus on managing my other strategies on C2 that I feel have a long term viability. I have cut back on all of my social platform engagements so don't take it personal if I do not reply here on C2. I have found it to be too distracting from my real personal life. Good luck trading!

Premium Collecting

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20203.13.1
20210.94.46.41.23.80.71.82.21.81.5-7.93.821.7
2022-13.7-4.61.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-16.3
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/5/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age71 months
What it tradesOptions
# Trades100
# Profitable80
% Profitable80.0%
Avg trade duration12.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown26.9%
drawdown periodOct 15, 2021 - March 08, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)3.7%
Avg win$466
Avg loss$1,680

Ratios

W:L ratio1.11
Sharpe Ratio-0.05
Sortino Ratio-0.07
Calmar Ratio0.17

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.14
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life108.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-14.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)3.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity28.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options1.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss92.0%
Chance of 20% account loss76.0%
Chance of 30% account loss56.5%
Chance of 40% account loss41.0%
Chance of 50% account loss18.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)2.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)767
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)776
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)487

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,680
Avg Win$466
# Winners80
Sum Trade PL (losers)$33,603
Sum Trade PL (winners)$37,268
Num Months Winners13
# Losers20
% Winners80.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table71

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)18578.12
Avg Position Time (hrs)309.64
Avg Trade Length12.90
Last Trade Ago1666

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.48
Daily leverage (max)5.60

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.09
Treynor Index-0.02

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades59.38
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.94
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.41
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.04
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.24
df14
t0.28
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.99
Sortino ratio0.34
Upside Potential Ratio1.90
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms6
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.00
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error13
t(b)0.88
p(b)0.35
t(a)-0.08
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)0.10
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean0.03
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.16
df14
t0.19
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.92
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.91
Sortino ratio0.22
Upside Potential Ratio1.76
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms6
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.00
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error13
t(b)0.97
p(b)0.34
t(a)-0.19
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)0.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.04
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.25
df344
t0.28
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.95
Sortino ratio0.32
Upside Potential Ratio6.76
Upside part of mean0.77
Downside part of mean-0.74
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms187
N negative terms158
N of observations345
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.01
r0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error343
t(b)8.09
p(b)0
t(a)-0.09
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)0.09
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean0.03
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.17
df344
t0.20
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.54
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.88
Sortino ratio0.22
Upside Potential Ratio6.62
Upside part of mean0.77
Downside part of mean-0.74
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms187
N negative terms158
N of observations345
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.01
r0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error343
t(b)8.03
p(b)0
t(a)-0.14
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)0.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.43
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.23
df130
t-1.59
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.55
Sortino ratio-2.63
Upside Potential Ratio4.48
Upside part of mean0.73
Downside part of mean-1.15
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms81
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.02
Mean of criterion-0.43
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.39
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.43
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)4.76
p(b)0.26
t(a)-1.75
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.43
Mean-0.45
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.31
df130
t-1.64
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.48
Sortino ratio-2.70
Upside Potential Ratio4.37
Upside part of mean0.72
Downside part of mean-1.17
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms81
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.00
Mean of criterion-0.45
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.45
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)4.70
p(b)0.26
t(a)-1.77
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.11
Jensen alpha (a)-0.45
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations15
Minimum0.88
Quartile 10.99
Median1.01
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.72
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.18
Number of observations345
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low25
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high17
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.12
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.33
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.06
Median0.11
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.20
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations30
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.24
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.81
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.32
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.41
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.06
Median0.12
Quartile 30.18
Maximum0.24
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.24
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-320439136
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)144
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.29
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.29
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.62
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.23
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.98
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.90
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.34
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.40
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.40
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-13.23

Trading record

Placed 213 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QQQ2214D364 short4Mar 11, 2022Mar 16, 2022($192)
QQQ2214P302 short4Feb 28, 2022Mar 16, 2022$324
QQQ2214D374 short4Feb 28, 2022Mar 11, 2022$749
QQQ2231C364 short4Mar 4, 2022Mar 9, 2022$259
QQQ2231O309 short4Feb 14, 2022Mar 9, 2022($114)
QQQ2231C376 short4Feb 22, 2022Mar 4, 2022$267
QQQ2218C362 short4Feb 22, 2022Feb 24, 2022$640
QQQ2218O331 short4Feb 1, 2022Feb 24, 2022($4,532)
QQQ2218C369 short4Feb 18, 2022Feb 22, 2022$285
QQQ2231C382 short4Feb 14, 2022Feb 22, 2022$517
QQQ2218C402 short4Feb 1, 2022Feb 18, 2022$287
QQQ2204C412 short4Jan 18, 2022Jan 24, 2022$260
QQQ2204O348 short4Jan 18, 2022Jan 24, 2022($5,493)
QQQ2218B398 short4Jan 10, 2022Jan 21, 2022$601
QQQ2218N368 short4Jan 4, 2022Jan 21, 2022($4,669)
QQQ2218B418 short4Jan 6, 2022Jan 10, 2022$255
QQQ2218B425 short4Jan 4, 2022Jan 6, 2022$456
QQQ2228M378 short4Dec 27, 2021Dec 27, 2021$247
QQQ2228A417 short4Dec 21, 2021Dec 27, 2021($772)
QQQ2228M370 short4Dec 23, 2021Dec 27, 2021$360
QQQ2228M366 short4Dec 13, 2021Dec 23, 2021$845
QQQ2221A414 short4Dec 21, 2021Dec 23, 2021($233)
QQQ2221M366 short4Dec 7, 2021Dec 23, 2021$1,017
QQQ2228A428 short4Dec 13, 2021Dec 21, 2021$249
QQQ2221A428 short4Dec 7, 2021Dec 21, 2021$393
VIX2219M29 long6Nov 26, 2021Dec 9, 2021$652
QQQ2131L404 short4Dec 2, 2021Dec 6, 2021$758
QQQ2131X383 short4Nov 22, 2021Dec 6, 2021($3,030)
QQQ2117X396 short2Nov 22, 2021Nov 26, 2021($960)
QQQ2117X381 short4Nov 18, 2021Nov 22, 2021$358

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.