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Peak Crest Factor

Futures · Started Sep 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
19.6%
Max Drawdown
53.0%
Trades
313
Win Trades
98.4%
Profit Factor
2
Win Months
20.5%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20205.022.915.5-1.247.3
202110.3-10.234.713.1-11.619.311.27.3-0.414.07.25.5144.1
20227.55.27.1-8.8-3.1-22.90.00.00.00.00.00.0-17.5
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/24/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age74 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades313
# Profitable308
% Profitable98.4%
Avg trade duration1.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown53.0%
drawdown periodFeb 19, 2021 - March 04, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)19.6%
Avg win$732
Avg loss$22,154

Ratios

W:L ratio2.04
Sharpe Ratio0.60
Sortino Ratio0.88
Calmar Ratio1.76

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.25
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life134.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)60.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)19.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)21.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity51.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss68.5%
Chance of 20% account loss36.0%
Chance of 30% account loss19.0%
Chance of 40% account loss10.0%
Chance of 50% account loss3.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$22,154
Avg Win$732
# Winners308
Sum Trade PL (losers)$110,768
Sum Trade PL (winners)$225,427
Num Months Winners15
# Losers5
% Winners98.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table74

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1399.20
Avg Position Time (hrs)23.32
Avg Trade Length1
Last Trade Ago1593

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.35
Daily leverage (max)15.93

Regression

Alpha0.04
Beta0.44
Treynor Index0.12

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.44
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.40
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades6.80
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.76
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.44
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.49
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.15

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.63
SD0.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.28
df25
t1.94
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.65
Sortino ratio3.04
Upside Potential Ratio4.59
Upside part of mean0.96
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.46
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms12
N of observations26
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion0.63
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.48
Covariance0.02
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.52
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.47
Mean Square Error0.23
DF error24
t(b)1.16
p(b)0.13
t(a)1.33
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.20
Treynor index (mean / b)1.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.47
Mean0.52
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.12
df25
t1.70
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.49
Sortino ratio2.29
Upside Potential Ratio3.82
Upside part of mean0.87
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms12
N of observations26
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.52
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance0.03
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.60
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.34
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error24
t(b)1.43
p(b)0.08
t(a)1.06
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.01
Treynor index (mean / b)0.86
Jensen alpha (a)0.34
VaR(95%)0.16
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
Mean0.59
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.44
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.44
df581
t2.14
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.75
Sortino ratio2.10
Upside Potential Ratio6.71
Upside part of mean1.89
Downside part of mean-1.30
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms287
N negative terms295
N of observations582
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.59
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance0.03
r0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.42
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error580
t(b)6.77
p(b)0
t(a)1.57
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.94
Treynor index (mean / b)1.37
Jensen alpha (a)0.42
Mean0.51
SD0.42
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.22
df581
t1.82
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.53
Sortino ratio1.68
Upside Potential Ratio6.14
Upside part of mean1.85
Downside part of mean-1.34
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms287
N negative terms295
N of observations582
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.51
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.42
Covariance0.03
r0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.44
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.34
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error580
t(b)6.82
p(b)0
t(a)1.28
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.87
Treynor index (mean / b)1.15
Jensen alpha (a)0.34
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.50
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.40
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6724556207161344
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.37554984090861e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations26
Minimum0.80
Quartile 10.99
Median1.05
Quartile 31.11
Maximum1.45
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.08
Mean of quarter 41.23
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.80
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.45
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-10.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.63
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.20
Number of observations582
Minimum0.78
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low69
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high73
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.54
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.46
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.09
Median0.11
Quartile 30.15
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20.11
Mean of quarter 30.15
Mean of quarter 40.29
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.29
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations42
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.40
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.69
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.52
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-426514720
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)13
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.73
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.50
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.50
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.65
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.71
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.76
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.27
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal14.20
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 137 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@MNQ M2long30Apr 21, 2022Jun 13, 2022($75,225)
@MNQ M2long10Apr 20, 2022Apr 21, 2022$1,317
@MNQ M2long10Apr 14, 2022Apr 19, 2022$1,021
@MNQ M2long7Apr 8, 2022Apr 8, 2022$812
@MNQ M2long8Apr 7, 2022Apr 7, 2022$713
@MNQ M2long9Apr 6, 2022Apr 6, 2022$1,050
@MNQ M2long7Apr 5, 2022Apr 5, 2022$774
@MNQ M2long7Apr 4, 2022Apr 4, 2022$517
@MNQ M2long7Apr 1, 2022Apr 1, 2022$736
@MNQ M2long7Mar 31, 2022Mar 31, 2022$732
@MNQ M2long14Mar 30, 2022Mar 30, 2022$566
@MNQ M2long7Mar 29, 2022Mar 29, 2022$746
@MNQ M2long7Mar 28, 2022Mar 28, 2022$603
@MNQ M2long7Mar 25, 2022Mar 25, 2022$816
@MNQ M2long8Mar 23, 2022Mar 23, 2022$1,045
@MNQ M2long9Mar 22, 2022Mar 22, 2022$721
@MNQ M2long12Mar 21, 2022Mar 21, 2022$722
@MNQ M2long7Mar 18, 2022Mar 18, 2022$538
@MNQ M2long7Mar 17, 2022Mar 17, 2022$833
@MNQ H2long17Mar 11, 2022Mar 15, 2022$1,376
@MNQ H2long7Mar 10, 2022Mar 10, 2022$952
@MNQ H2long7Mar 9, 2022Mar 9, 2022$707
@MNQ H2long14Mar 7, 2022Mar 8, 2022$1,363
@MNQ H2long9Mar 4, 2022Mar 4, 2022$878
@MNQ H2long10Mar 3, 2022Mar 3, 2022$953
@MNQ H2long7Mar 2, 2022Mar 2, 2022$1,054
@MNQ H2long11Mar 1, 2022Mar 1, 2022$464
@MNQ H2long7Feb 28, 2022Feb 28, 2022$1,153
@MNQ H2long7Feb 25, 2022Feb 25, 2022$960
@MNQ H2long9Feb 24, 2022Feb 24, 2022$900

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.