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Strategy 09

Futures · Futures · Started Sep 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-18.6%
Max Drawdown
72.8%
Trades
117
Win Trades
61.5%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
1.4%

Momentum Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-5.3-15.05.7-26.3-37.3
2021-38.9-26.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-54.8
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/9/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age74 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades117
# Profitable72
% Profitable61.5%
Avg trade duration19.1 minutes
Max peak-to-valley drawdown72.8%
drawdown periodDec 08, 2020 - Feb 10, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)-18.6%
Avg win$130
Avg loss$278

Ratios

W:L ratio0.75
Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Sortino Ratio-0.70
Calmar Ratio-0.56

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life124.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-197.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-18.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-6.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity268.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$278
Avg Win$130
# Winners72
Sum Trade PL (losers)$12,512
Sum Trade PL (winners)$9,385
Num Months Winners1
# Losers45
% Winners61.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table74

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)19.13
Avg Position Time (hrs)0.32
Avg Trade Length0
Last Trade Ago2074

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)42.96
Daily leverage (max)181.35

Regression

Alpha-0.05
Beta0
Treynor Index-15.39

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-2.76
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.54
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.12
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.08
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.36

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.28
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.27
df15
t-1.55
p0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.49
Sortino ratio-1.32
Upside Potential Ratio0.19
Upside part of mean0.04
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms14
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.62
Mean of criterion-0.28
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.01
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.35
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error14
t(b)0.49
p(b)0.43
t(a)-1.50
p(a)0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.56
Jensen alpha (a)-0.35
Mean-0.31
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.35
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.28
df15
t-1.56
p0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.48
Sortino ratio-1.32
Upside Potential Ratio0.17
Upside part of mean0.04
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms14
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion-0.31
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.01
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.38
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error14
t(b)0.46
p(b)0.44
t(a)-1.49
p(a)0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.59
Jensen alpha (a)-0.38
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
Mean-0.26
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.83
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.83
df351
t-0.97
p0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.86
Sortino ratio-0.96
Upside Potential Ratio1.60
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.68
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms29
N negative terms323
N of observations352
Mean of predictor0.62
Mean of criterion-0.26
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.27
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error350
t(b)0.33
p(b)0.37
t(a)-1.00
p(a)0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)-14.55
Jensen alpha (a)-0.27
Mean-0.31
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.94
df351
t-1.09
p0.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.75
Sortino ratio-1.06
Upside Potential Ratio1.43
Upside part of mean0.42
Downside part of mean-0.72
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms29
N negative terms323
N of observations352
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion-0.31
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.32
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error350
t(b)0.32
p(b)0.38
t(a)-1.12
p(a)0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)-17.08
Jensen alpha (a)-0.32
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.40
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.31
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6736709353996288
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.79911818785094e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations16
Minimum0.81
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.87
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.23
Number of observations352
Minimum0.78
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.13
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low18
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high29
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.31
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.46
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.32
Quartile 10.32
Median0.32
Quartile 30.32
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.09
Quartile 10.18
Median0.26
Quartile 30.35
Maximum0.43
Mean of quarter 10.09
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.43
Inter Quartile Range0.17
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-448595744
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)64
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.24
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.78
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.64
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.24
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.56
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.56
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.84
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 351 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@MNQ H1long9Feb 10, 2021Feb 10, 2021($553)
@MNQ H1long2Feb 10, 2021Feb 10, 2021$2
@MNQ H1short1Feb 5, 2021Feb 5, 2021$1
@MNQ H1short4Feb 5, 2021Feb 5, 2021$164
@MNQ H1short1Feb 5, 2021Feb 5, 2021$0
@MNQ H1short1Feb 5, 2021Feb 5, 2021($15)
@MNQ H1long5Feb 4, 2021Feb 4, 2021$8
@MNQ H1long4Feb 4, 2021Feb 4, 2021$18
@MNQ H1short2Feb 4, 2021Feb 4, 2021($59)
@MNQ H1short2Feb 4, 2021Feb 4, 2021($31)
@MNQ H1long4Feb 3, 2021Feb 3, 2021$22
@MNQ H1short1Feb 3, 2021Feb 3, 2021($20)
@MNQ H1short4Jan 29, 2021Jan 29, 2021$204
@MNQ H1short4Jan 29, 2021Jan 29, 2021($91)
@MNQ H1long2Jan 26, 2021Jan 26, 2021$139
@MNQ H1long1Jan 25, 2021Jan 25, 2021$192
@MNQ H1long1Jan 25, 2021Jan 25, 2021($21)
@MNQ H1long5Jan 25, 2021Jan 25, 2021($119)
@MNQ H1long5Jan 25, 2021Jan 25, 2021$12
@MNQ H1short2Jan 14, 2021Jan 14, 2021($45)
@MNQ H1long2Jan 14, 2021Jan 14, 2021$74
@MNQ H1long2Jan 14, 2021Jan 14, 2021$25
@MNQ H1long1Jan 14, 2021Jan 14, 2021$5
@MNQ H1short1Jan 14, 2021Jan 14, 2021$3
@MNQ H1short2Jan 14, 2021Jan 14, 2021$48
@MNQ H1short1Jan 14, 2021Jan 14, 2021$40
@MNQ H1long1Jan 14, 2021Jan 14, 2021$2
@MNQ H1long2Jan 13, 2021Jan 13, 2021$47
@MNQ H1long3Jan 13, 2021Jan 13, 2021$128
@MNQ H1long1Jan 13, 2021Jan 13, 2021$24

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.