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MachineLearner 01

Equity · Stocks · Started Aug 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-3.0%
Max Drawdown
21.5%
Trades
150
Win Trades
40.0%
Profit Factor
0.70
Win Months
1.3%

About this strategy

The strategy buys the 10 highest expected return stocks and sells the 10 lowest expected return stocks in the cross-section using an artificial intelligence model.
The strategy exits all positions by the 4th Friday from the date of entry.
Results in backtests show that the strategy can be flat for as long as 6 months (losing weeks canceling winning weeks).
The largest drawdown in backtests was 30% and seeing as the biggest drawdown is in the future, we can expect drawdowns as large as 60% going forward.

The price starts at $0 in October 2020. The subscription price increases by $20 each month the strategy closes in the green and reduces by $20 each month it closes in the red.

Hedged Equity Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20203.8-14.8-5.7-0.90.0-17.3
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/19/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age75 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades150
# Profitable60
% Profitable40.0%
Avg trade duration9.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown21.5%
drawdown periodSept 01, 2020 - Nov 09, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)-3.0%
Avg win$122
Avg loss$121

Ratios

W:L ratio0.67
Sharpe Ratio-1.04
Sortino Ratio-1.08
Calmar Ratio-0.70

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life127.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-148.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-3.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-2.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity26.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated53.1%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$121
Avg Win$122
# Winners60
Sum Trade PL (losers)$10,881
Sum Trade PL (winners)$7,325
Num Months Winners1
# Losers90
% Winners40.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct-13

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table75

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)13975.28
Avg Position Time (hrs)232.92
Avg Trade Length9.70
Last Trade Ago2157

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.82
Daily leverage (max)2.04

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index2.07

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.43
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.86
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.38
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.49
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.29

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.16
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.43
df12
t-1.59
p0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.48
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.40
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.54
Sortino ratio-1.44
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms13
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.70
Mean of criterion-0.16
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.01
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.22
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error11
t(b)0.91
p(b)0.19
t(a)-1.82
p(a)0.95
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.90
Jensen alpha (a)-0.22
Mean-0.17
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.50
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.40
df12
t-1.56
p0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.56
Sortino ratio-1.42
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms13
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.64
Mean of criterion-0.17
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.01
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.23
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error11
t(b)0.85
p(b)0.21
t(a)-1.76
p(a)0.95
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.93
Jensen alpha (a)-0.23
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
Mean-0.16
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.80
df299
t-1.93
p0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.04
Sortino ratio-1.89
Upside Potential Ratio1.49
Upside part of mean0.12
Downside part of mean-0.28
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms33
N negative terms267
N of observations300
Mean of predictor0.74
Mean of criterion-0.16
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.16
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error298
t(b)-0.19
p(b)0.57
t(a)-1.89
p(a)0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)58.13
Jensen alpha (a)-0.16
Mean-0.16
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.81
df299
t-1.94
p0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.03
Sortino ratio-1.90
Upside Potential Ratio1.45
Upside part of mean0.12
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms33
N negative terms267
N of observations300
Mean of predictor0.68
Mean of criterion-0.16
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.16
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error298
t(b)-0.20
p(b)0.58
t(a)-1.90
p(a)0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)54.16
Jensen alpha (a)-0.16
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.00
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.89
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6819660741738496
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.28962519649433e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations13
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.23
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations300
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low28
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high33
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.82
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.33
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.14
Quartile 10.14
Median0.14
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.05
Median0.09
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-396853056
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)69
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.93
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.69
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.70
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.70
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-10.52
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MITK long20Oct 19, 2020Nov 13, 2020($0)
GEVO short252Oct 19, 2020Nov 13, 2020$52
CCL short17Oct 19, 2020Nov 13, 2020($26)
XSPA short371Oct 12, 2020Nov 13, 2020$133
APM short292Oct 12, 2020Nov 13, 2020$208
GPMT short139Oct 5, 2020Nov 13, 2020($44)
HUSA short357Oct 12, 2020Nov 6, 2020$175
NOG short105Oct 12, 2020Nov 6, 2020$250
NCLH short47Oct 12, 2020Nov 6, 2020$30
SONN short199Oct 12, 2020Nov 6, 2020$86
CPE short162Oct 12, 2020Nov 6, 2020($63)
VVI short21Oct 5, 2020Oct 30, 2020$58
SGMO long46Oct 5, 2020Oct 30, 2020$40
SVMK long24Oct 12, 2020Oct 29, 2020($56)
PBYI long126Oct 5, 2020Oct 29, 2020($125)
SESN long211Oct 19, 2020Oct 29, 2020($29)
AHT short564Oct 5, 2020Oct 22, 2020($105)
TOMZ long140Oct 5, 2020Oct 21, 2020($136)
MBIO long83Oct 19, 2020Oct 21, 2020($29)
MEIP long257Oct 12, 2020Oct 21, 2020($86)
CEI short249Oct 19, 2020Oct 21, 2020($29)
MARA short112Oct 19, 2020Oct 20, 2020($28)
PLAY short17Oct 19, 2020Oct 20, 2020($32)
CKPT long96Oct 19, 2020Oct 19, 2020($28)
CNK short31Oct 19, 2020Oct 19, 2020($26)
BIMI short305Oct 12, 2020Oct 19, 2020($564)
SESN long431Oct 12, 2020Oct 13, 2020($65)
HUSA short419Oct 5, 2020Oct 6, 2020($71)
PRPO short193Oct 5, 2020Oct 6, 2020($56)
BIMI short255Oct 5, 2020Oct 5, 2020($48)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.