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Aerospace Engineering

Forex · Started Aug 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
4.2%
Max Drawdown
23.0%
Trades
734
Win Trades
57.4%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
45.3%

About this strategy

Aerospace Engineering is designed to take flight and generate sustainable growth over time.
This is a momentum based, trend following, target trading system that trades based on a deep understanding of where the market is likely to change directions or continue with the trend. Strict risk management controls are maintained on every trade and all open positions, stops and limits are actively managed.

All possible combinations of only the following currency pairs are considered: USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD.

This system utilizes both day trading and swing trading methods and thus trades may be open for hours or, when appropriate, they may be held open for days or weeks. In order to mitigate risk a form of hedging is sometimes used through correlated pairs. Trade sizes and total leverage are factored into each position.

Recommendations:
Be patient with this system: there will be periods of gain and also periods of reasonable drawdown.
Be careful not to over-leverage this (or any) system and absolute minimum capital for a 1:1 scaling should not be under $25,000.

Good communication and clear understanding are paramount to consistently achieving defined goals. Reach out to me: good, clear questions or ideas are always welcomed.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-1.45.37.6-2.23.312.8
20213.30.4-7.71.00.4-1.25.66.54.1-0.94.91.118.1
20228.7-0.3-7.7-1.42.60.82.8-2.92.31.61.0-1.25.5
20232.38.6-1.4-0.6-0.8-2.2-1.6-0.24.0-5.21.31.75.3
20244.10.92.4-1.9-1.0-3.02.13.91.7-6.62.8-2.52.4
20252.22.7-2.6-8.5-0.6-8.8-0.61.10.0-0.00.00.0-14.8
20260.00.0-0.10.0-0.0-0.10.0-0.0-0.10.0-0.1

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/17/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age75 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades734
# Profitable421
% Profitable57.4%
Avg trade duration5.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown23.0%
drawdown periodSept 30, 2024 - Aug 21, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)4.2%
Avg win$274
Avg loss$303

Ratios

W:L ratio1.22
Sharpe Ratio0.20
Sortino Ratio0.29
Calmar Ratio0.41

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life129.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-100.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)4.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity26.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.3%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss40.0%
Chance of 20% account loss12.5%
Chance of 30% account loss2.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.1%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$303
Avg Win$274
# Winners421
Sum Trade PL (losers)$94,742
Sum Trade PL (winners)$115,436
Num Months Winners41
# Losers313
% Winners57.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table75

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7280.02
Avg Position Time (hrs)121.33
Avg Trade Length5.10
Last Trade Ago413

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.21
Daily leverage (max)9.97

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.04
Treynor Index0.23

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades13.89
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-4.85
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.73
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.78
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.05
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.37
df70
t0.90
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.17
Sortino ratio0.65
Upside Potential Ratio2.36
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms32
N negative terms39
N of observations71
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.00
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error69
t(b)0.88
p(b)0.19
t(a)0.65
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Treynor index (mean / b)0.47
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
Mean0.04
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.30
df70
t0.74
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.51
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.11
Sortino ratio0.50
Upside Potential Ratio2.20
Upside part of mean0.19
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms32
N negative terms39
N of observations71
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.00
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error69
t(b)0.94
p(b)0.18
t(a)0.50
p(a)0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)0.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.05
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.42
df1557
t1.02
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.22
Sortino ratio0.63
Upside Potential Ratio7.38
Upside part of mean0.60
Downside part of mean-0.55
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms628
N negative terms930
N of observations1558
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1556
t(b)1.92
p(b)0.48
t(a)0.93
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)1.43
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.04
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.36
df1557
t0.87
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.16
Sortino ratio0.53
Upside Potential Ratio7.25
Upside part of mean0.60
Downside part of mean-0.56
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms628
N negative terms930
N of observations1558
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1556
t(b)1.97
p(b)0.48
t(a)0.79
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)1.20
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.43
df130
t-1.01
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.35
Sortino ratio-2.00
Upside Potential Ratio2.00
Upside part of mean0.03
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms120
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.31
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.02
Covariance-0.00
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)-1.13
p(b)0.56
t(a)-0.84
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.93
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.44
df130
t-1.02
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.33
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.34
Sortino ratio-2.00
Upside Potential Ratio1.98
Upside part of mean0.03
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms120
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.02
Covariance-0.00
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)-1.13
p(b)0.56
t(a)-0.86
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.94
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations71
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.27
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations1558
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low99
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high121
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1222.04
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-3.59
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.25
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations10
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.04
Median0.05
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.17
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations45
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.06
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.27
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.01
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-432439968
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)690
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.45
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.61
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.94
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.41
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.75
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.84
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.23
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.44
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.74

Trading record

Placed 179 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/CHF long50Nov 12, 2024Aug 21, 2025$42
CHF/JPY short160Sep 23, 2024Jun 27, 2025($7,740)
NZD/CHF long50Oct 21, 2024Mar 4, 2025($1,395)
GBP/CHF long50Oct 21, 2024Jan 13, 2025($820)
AUD/USD long50Nov 12, 2024Dec 11, 2024($941)
EUR/CAD long110Nov 12, 2024Dec 6, 2024$72
EUR/AUD short50Oct 28, 2024Oct 29, 2024($409)
GBP/USD long50Oct 8, 2024Oct 23, 2024($748)
NZD/CAD long50Oct 9, 2024Oct 11, 2024$278
EUR/GBP long50Sep 23, 2024Oct 3, 2024$581
NZD/CHF long50Sep 13, 2024Sep 23, 2024$497
GBP/CHF long50Sep 13, 2024Sep 18, 2024$247
EUR/CHF long50Sep 3, 2024Sep 12, 2024$264
USD/CHF long50Sep 3, 2024Sep 12, 2024$268
NZD/CAD short50Aug 29, 2024Sep 3, 2024$305
CHF/JPY short50Aug 29, 2024Sep 3, 2024$189
USD/CHF long50Aug 29, 2024Aug 29, 2024$377
GBP/USD short50Aug 29, 2024Aug 29, 2024$242
EUR/USD short70Aug 19, 2024Aug 21, 2024($739)
EUR/CHF long210Jul 22, 2024Aug 15, 2024$1,153
EUR/AUD short50Jul 25, 2024Aug 4, 2024($813)
EUR/NZD short50Jul 25, 2024Aug 1, 2024$769
GBP/CAD short50Jul 16, 2024Aug 1, 2024$196
GBP/AUD short50Jul 25, 2024Aug 1, 2024$213
GBP/USD short50Jul 16, 2024Jul 25, 2024$362
CHF/JPY short100Jul 2, 2024Jul 15, 2024$1,361
EUR/USD long70Jun 13, 2024Jul 3, 2024($73)
GBP/USD long70Jun 17, 2024Jun 19, 2024$322
EUR/NZD short100Jun 17, 2024Jun 18, 2024($204)
CHF/JPY short50Jun 12, 2024Jun 13, 2024($316)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.