Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

Losers Game C2Star

Equity · Stocks · Started Aug 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-8.7%
Max Drawdown
85.4%
Trades
143
Win Trades
38.5%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
45.3%

About this strategy

Strategy is trying to build portfolio to avoid "losing" stocks from SP500. In the long run this gives significant effect

NOTES:
1. Recommended start account 50k
2. Is not designed to use leverage
3. If you start using system, enter any existing open positions, because some positions can be opened for few weeks.
4. All signal provided automatically by software, no manual trades entered
5. IRA compatible, stocks long side only.

Event-driven

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20201.6-0.71.727.55.137.6
2021-0.112.97.516.70.66.77.29.4-14.520.8-1.9-0.579.5
2022-4.6-3.12.8-16.6-11.6-28.514.60.0-10.2-1.18.6-15.4-53.2
2023-29.98.422.3-1.9-0.0-5.80.35.6-0.17.5-3.4-5.6-11.0
2024-0.80.4-5.8-0.2-0.9-4.0-0.91.3-2.9-2.8-7.45.4-17.6
2025-4.18.15.07.5-2.1-7.9-11.4-5.93.81.95.4-8.5-10.3
2026-4.2-6.72.2-3.1-18.4-24.921.10.19.74.3-24.8

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/14/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age75 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades143
# Profitable55
% Profitable38.5%
Avg trade duration236.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown85.4%
drawdown periodJan 03, 2022 - June 25, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)-8.7%
Avg win$692
Avg loss$540

Ratios

W:L ratio0.82
Sharpe Ratio-0.03
Sortino Ratio-0.04
Calmar Ratio-0.18

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.23
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life128.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-171.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-8.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-2.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity395.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.1%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.8%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss85.0%
Chance of 30% account loss69.0%
Chance of 40% account loss48.5%
Chance of 50% account loss24.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)6.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$540
Avg Win$692
# Winners55
Sum Trade PL (losers)$47,478
Sum Trade PL (winners)$38,059
Num Months Winners35
# Losers88
% Winners38.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1055

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table75

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)340371.81
Avg Position Time (hrs)5672.86
Avg Trade Length236.40
Last Trade Ago252

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.06
Daily leverage (max)5.51

Regression

Alpha-0.03
Beta0.63
Treynor Index-0.01

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.34
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-5.85
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2.11
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.73
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.76
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.39

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.10
SD0.91
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.10
df13
t0.11
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.92
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.91
Sortino ratio0.14
Upside Potential Ratio1.89
Upside part of mean1.26
Downside part of mean-1.16
Upside SD0.57
Downside SD0.67
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms6
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.73
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0.91
Covariance0.09
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.59
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.33
Mean Square Error0.83
DF error12
t(b)0.89
p(b)0.38
t(a)-0.34
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.79
Treynor index (mean / b)0.16
Jensen alpha (a)-0.33
Mean-0.36
SD1.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.35
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.33
df13
t-0.37
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.48
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.14
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.49
Sortino ratio-0.41
Upside Potential Ratio1.26
Upside part of mean1.12
Downside part of mean-1.48
Upside SD0.49
Downside SD0.89
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms6
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.64
Mean of criterion-0.36
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion1.05
Covariance0.14
r0.35
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.98
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.99
Mean Square Error1.05
DF error12
t(b)1.29
p(b)0.33
t(a)-0.93
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.33
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.37
Jensen alpha (a)-0.99
VaR(95%)0.41
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.48
VaR(95%)0.20
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.40
Mean0.21
SD0.87
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.24
df314
t0.26
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.02
Sortino ratio0.34
Upside Potential Ratio7.63
Upside part of mean4.63
Downside part of mean-4.42
Upside SD0.62
Downside SD0.61
N nonnegative terms155
N negative terms160
N of observations315
Mean of predictor0.71
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.87
Covariance0.10
r0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.99
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.50
Mean Square Error0.66
DF error313
t(b)6.96
p(b)0
t(a)-0.67
p(a)0.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.97
Treynor index (mean / b)0.21
Jensen alpha (a)-0.50
Mean-0.18
SD0.88
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.20
df314
t-0.22
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.59
Sortino ratio-0.27
Upside Potential Ratio6.77
Upside part of mean4.45
Downside part of mean-4.63
Upside SD0.59
Downside SD0.66
N nonnegative terms155
N negative terms160
N of observations315
Mean of predictor0.66
Mean of criterion-0.18
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.88
Covariance0.11
r0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.85
Mean Square Error0.67
DF error313
t(b)7.11
p(b)0
t(a)-1.13
p(a)0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.63
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.17
Jensen alpha (a)-0.85
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean-0.85
SD0.86
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.98
df130
t-0.70
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.79
Sortino ratio-1.34
Upside Potential Ratio6.25
Upside part of mean3.95
Downside part of mean-4.80
Upside SD0.58
Downside SD0.63
N nonnegative terms56
N negative terms75
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.32
Mean of criterion-0.85
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.86
Covariance-0.09
r-0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.91
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.36
Mean Square Error0.66
DF error129
t(b)-3.94
p(b)0.70
t(a)0.30
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.71
Treynor index (mean / b)0.93
Jensen alpha (a)0.36
Mean-1.23
SD0.88
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.39
df130
t-0.99
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.39
Sortino ratio-1.77
Upside Potential Ratio5.47
Upside part of mean3.80
Downside part of mean-5.03
Upside SD0.54
Downside SD0.69
N nonnegative terms56
N negative terms75
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.27
Mean of criterion-1.23
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.88
Covariance-0.08
r-0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.91
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.70
DF error129
t(b)-3.79
p(b)0.70
t(a)-0.05
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.39
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.36
Treynor index (mean / b)1.35
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations14
Minimum0.48
Quartile 10.88
Median1.06
Quartile 31.18
Maximum1.40
Mean of quarter 10.68
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.10
Mean of quarter 41.28
Inter Quartile Range0.30
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.27
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.33
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.41
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.42
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.53
Number of observations315
Minimum0.72
Quartile 10.98
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.20
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low18
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high22
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.01
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations131
Minimum0.72
Quartile 10.97
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.20
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.81
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.34
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.49
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.19
Median0.38
Quartile 30.56
Maximum0.75
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.75
Inter Quartile Range0.37
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations18
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.03
Median0.04
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.77
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.24
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high0.77
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.88
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.28
Expected Shortfall (moments method)2.20
Extreme Value Index (regression method)4.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.40
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.56
Quartile 10.56
Median0.56
Quartile 30.56
Maximum0.56
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-432301856
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1634
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.28
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.29
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.38
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.38
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.60
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.18
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.59
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.30
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.90
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.70
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.26
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-6.35

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
XOM2317O115 long1Jan 13, 2023Mar 18, 2023($646)
CME2317O175 long1Jan 13, 2023Mar 18, 2023($591)
XOM2317C115 long1Jan 13, 2023Mar 18, 2023($426)
CME2317C175 long1Jan 13, 2023Mar 18, 2023($731)
@VX H3long4Jan 9, 2023Mar 10, 2023$668
SRE short6Jan 3, 2023Feb 28, 2023$1
PRU short10Jan 3, 2023Feb 21, 2023$3
MCK short2Jan 3, 2023Feb 2, 2023$3
SYY short13Jan 3, 2023Jan 31, 2023$9
PAYX short8Jan 3, 2023Jan 25, 2023$2
APA2303O45 long1Jan 13, 2023Jan 25, 2023($2)
AVB2321D165 long1Jan 13, 2023Jan 24, 2023$118
CAH2317O77.5 long1Jan 13, 2023Jan 24, 2023$18
ESS2321P220 long1Jan 13, 2023Jan 13, 2023($312)
APA2303C45 long1Jan 13, 2023Jan 13, 2023($12)
HES2317O150 long1Jan 13, 2023Jan 13, 2023($32)
CAH2317C77.5 long1Jan 13, 2023Jan 13, 2023($42)
ESS2321D220 long1Jan 13, 2023Jan 13, 2023($102)
HES2317C150 long1Jan 13, 2023Jan 13, 2023($52)
BKR2321P31 long1Jan 13, 2023Jan 13, 2023($27)
LLY2317O360 long1Jan 13, 2023Jan 13, 2023$23
FSLR2317O175 long1Jan 13, 2023Jan 13, 2023($42)
BKR2321D31 long1Jan 13, 2023Jan 13, 2023($12)
LLY2317C360 long1Jan 13, 2023Jan 13, 2023($167)
FSLR2317C175 long1Jan 13, 2023Jan 13, 2023($57)
AVB2321P165 long1Jan 13, 2023Jan 13, 2023($102)
XOM2313A112 long1Jan 13, 2023Jan 13, 2023($14)
WST long4Jan 3, 2023Jan 13, 2023$61
ALGN long4Jan 3, 2023Jan 13, 2023$111
STX long19Jan 3, 2023Jan 13, 2023$109

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.