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Mega Capital Growth

Equity · Stocks · Started Jul 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
28.1%
Max Drawdown
57.4%
Trades
165
Win Trades
75.2%
Profit Factor
2.90
Win Months
35.5%

About this strategy

Goal of the strategy is capital growth. Please drop me a message before you subscribe with real money and keep into account that I often use the full buying power of my account. I suggest to use IB and I also want to point out that I plan to use options and options spreads every now and then. Scale your positions down according to your needs. The draw downs can be extended and the last cycle had a low of around -20% so this strategy is not for the faint-hearted or those that like to leverage their accounts. However due to technical issues of Collective2 options expiration and assignment is handled in a strange way so some of the sudden 1 day 20% drops during the day don't exist in reality.

To paying subscribers: Make sure to contact me about any open derivative positions before you take them over. These are highly time sensitive.
To non-paying subscribers: Welcome. Please be aware that I have built in a 168 hours delay.

Non-hedged Equity Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-0.53.3-1.8-9.136.36.633.3
202151.416.11.3-9.6-4.136.7-6.61.3-15.3-12.4-9.3-3.130.0
2022-8.6-16.72.7252.8-0.0-0.20.70.3-1.00.20.0-0.1175.0
20230.30.3-0.10.8-0.00.00.0-0.2-0.1-0.10.2-0.11.3
2024-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.10.10.00.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1
20250.2-0.0-0.10.0-0.00.20.3-0.10.20.3-0.1-0.20.6
20260.3-0.30.0-0.10.1-0.30.1-0.1-0.10.0-0.3

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/13/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age76 months
What it tradesStocks, Options
# Trades165
# Profitable124
% Profitable75.2%
Avg trade duration40.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown57.4%
drawdown periodAug 10, 2021 - Feb 24, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)28.1%
Avg win$2,303
Avg loss$2,440

Ratios

W:L ratio2.93
Sharpe Ratio0.36
Sortino Ratio3.21
Calmar Ratio1.84

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life142.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)227.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)28.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)28.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.3%
Short Options - Percent Covered42.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.7%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss56.0%
Chance of 20% account loss34.0%
Chance of 30% account loss12.0%
Chance of 40% account loss5.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,440
Avg Win$2,303
# Winners124
Sum Trade PL (losers)$100,034
Sum Trade PL (winners)$285,576
Num Months Winners35
# Losers41
% Winners75.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct7140

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table76

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)57542.22
Avg Position Time (hrs)959.04
Avg Trade Length40
Last Trade Ago1787

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.19
Daily leverage (max)7.37

Regression

Alpha0.14
Beta-0.35
Treynor Index-0.37

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades8
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.41
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.73
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.28
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.13

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.24
SD1.56
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.77
df27
t1.22
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.07
Sortino ratio5.34
Upside Potential Ratio6.94
Upside part of mean1.62
Downside part of mean-0.37
Upside SD1.56
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms14
N of observations28
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion1.24
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion1.56
Covariance-0.09
r-0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.69
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.88
Mean Square Error2.38
DF error26
t(b)-1.30
p(b)0.90
t(a)1.67
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.74
Jensen alpha (a)1.88
Mean0.66
SD0.90
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.71
df27
t1.12
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.01
Sortino ratio2.57
Upside Potential Ratio4.13
Upside part of mean1.06
Downside part of mean-0.40
Upside SD0.87
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms14
N of observations28
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.66
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.90
Covariance-0.04
r-0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.82
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.95
Mean Square Error0.81
DF error26
t(b)-1.03
p(b)0.84
t(a)1.45
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.81
Jensen alpha (a)0.95
VaR(95%)0.31
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.38
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean1.21
SD1.62
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.75
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.75
df617
t1.15
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.03
Sortino ratio6.70
Upside Potential Ratio13.15
Upside part of mean2.38
Downside part of mean-1.17
Upside SD1.61
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms262
N negative terms356
N of observations618
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion1.21
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion1.62
Covariance-0.02
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.34
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.34
Mean Square Error2.61
DF error616
t(b)-1.30
p(b)0.90
t(a)1.27
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.42
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.53
Jensen alpha (a)1.34
Mean0.65
SD0.86
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.75
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.75
df617
t1.16
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.03
Sortino ratio3.52
Upside Potential Ratio9.91
Upside part of mean1.83
Downside part of mean-1.18
Upside SD0.84
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms262
N negative terms356
N of observations618
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.65
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.86
Covariance-0.01
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.70
Mean Square Error0.75
DF error616
t(b)-0.92
p(b)0.82
t(a)1.24
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.81
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.99
Jensen alpha (a)0.70
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.00
SD0.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.06
df130
t-0.04
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.72
Sortino ratio-0.12
Upside Potential Ratio8.90
Upside part of mean0.08
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms42
N negative terms89
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.36
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.02
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.00
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)-0.35
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.04
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Treynor index (mean / b)0.65
Jensen alpha (a)0.00
Mean-0.00
SD0.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.07
df130
t-0.05
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.71
Sortino ratio-0.14
Upside Potential Ratio8.88
Upside part of mean0.08
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms42
N negative terms89
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.29
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.02
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.00
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)-0.34
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.03
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)0.78
Jensen alpha (a)0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations28
Minimum0.78
Quartile 10.97
Median1.00
Quartile 31.03
Maximum3.28
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.53
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.78
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.73
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.01
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.87
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13
Number of observations618
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum3.43
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low77
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high84
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.36
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.32
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.03
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.49
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.32
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.49
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations39
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.53
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.01
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.81
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-410114880
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)198
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.70
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.99
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.01
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.61
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.68
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.97
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.84
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs8.41
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.56
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.15
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.24
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.30

Trading record

Placed 203 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ZSAN long55000May 4, 2021Apr 12, 2022$139,203
GLPGF long200Jul 27, 2021Dec 23, 2021($884)
VYGR long11000Oct 14, 2021Nov 23, 2021($11,388)
UWMC long3000Jul 15, 2021Oct 18, 2021($5,407)
ALJJ long11000Aug 24, 2021Oct 18, 2021($948)
GEO long1000Aug 30, 2021Oct 18, 2021$615
BBBY2115V23 short11Sep 21, 2021Oct 14, 2021($1,674)
BBBY long1400Jul 24, 2021Oct 6, 2021($22,459)
GEO2117I8 short10Aug 30, 2021Sep 18, 2021$193
BBBY2103I29 short13Aug 30, 2021Sep 4, 2021$732
VHC long3700Jun 30, 2021Aug 30, 2021$1,277
VERO long7000Aug 16, 2021Aug 30, 2021$1,983
BBBY2127H28.5 short13Aug 23, 2021Aug 28, 2021$316
ALJJ long13000Jul 15, 2021Aug 23, 2021($2,305)
BBBY2120T31 short12Jul 6, 2021Aug 21, 2021$4,232
UWMC2120T9 short20Jul 6, 2021Aug 21, 2021$2,586
GEO2120H7 short30Jul 19, 2021Aug 21, 2021$879
GEO long3000Jun 19, 2021Aug 21, 2021($3,010)
BBBY2123S31 short1Jul 19, 2021Jul 24, 2021$384
GEO2116G9 short20Jun 21, 2021Jul 17, 2021$986
GEO2116G8 short10Jun 22, 2021Jul 17, 2021$543
GEO2116S7 short10Jun 21, 2021Jul 17, 2021$393
ALJJ long11000Jun 14, 2021Jun 30, 2021$63
GEO2118R9 short10Jun 9, 2021Jun 19, 2021$1,243
GEO2118R8 short10Jun 9, 2021Jun 19, 2021$693
GEO short2000Jun 9, 2021Jun 9, 2021($25)
GEO long7000May 4, 2021Jun 9, 2021$24,305
VERO long6000May 4, 2021May 27, 2021$1,075
VHC long3500May 4, 2021May 26, 2021$900
GEO2121E6 short33Apr 23, 2021May 22, 2021$837

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.