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Index1

Equity · Futures · Started Jun 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-35.4%
Max Drawdown
98.0%
Trades
20
Win Trades
75.0%
Profit Factor
0.30
Win Months
0.0%

About this strategy

Index Trading

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-93.80.00.00.00.00.00.0-93.8
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/9/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age77 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades20
# Profitable15
% Profitable75.0%
Avg trade duration6.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown98.0%
drawdown periodJune 11, 2020 - June 16, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)-35.4%
Avg win$2,758
Avg loss$26,621

Ratios

W:L ratio0.31
Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Sortino Ratio-0.63
Calmar Ratio-1.01

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life138.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-237.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-35.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.4%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-32.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity2152.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$26,621
Avg Win$2,758
# Winners15
Sum Trade PL (losers)$133,106
Sum Trade PL (winners)$41,371
Num Months Winners0
# Losers5
% Winners75.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table77

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)402.63
Avg Position Time (hrs)6.71
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago2308

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)54.59
Daily leverage (max)205.67

Regression

Alpha-0.08
Beta-0.15
Treynor Index0.55

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades1.09
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.66
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades3.87
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-1.94
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.22
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.84
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.08
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.52

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-1.14
SD1.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.03
df9
t-1.03
p0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.17
Sortino ratio-1.12
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-1.14
Upside SD0
Downside SD1.02
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms10
N of observations10
Mean of predictor1.11
Mean of criterion-1.14
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion1.01
Covariance0.11
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.77
Mean Square Error1.09
DF error8
t(b)0.72
p(b)0.25
t(a)-1.23
p(a)0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.55
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.01
Jensen alpha (a)-1.77
Mean-3.15
SD2.85
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.01
df9
t-1.01
p0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.19
Sortino ratio-1.10
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-3.15
Upside SD0
Downside SD2.85
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms10
N of observations10
Mean of predictor0.99
Mean of criterion-3.15
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion2.85
Covariance0.27
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.58
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-4.71
Mean Square Error8.63
DF error8
t(b)0.67
p(b)0.26
t(a)-1.18
p(a)0.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta7.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-13.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.45
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.99
Jensen alpha (a)-4.71
VaR(95%)0.80
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.85
VaR(95%)0.33
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.69
Mean-1.82
SD1.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.61
df221
t-1.49
p0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.52
Sortino ratio-1.63
Upside Potential Ratio0.29
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-2.14
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD1.11
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms219
N of observations222
Mean of predictor1.10
Mean of criterion-1.82
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion1.12
Covariance-0.02
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.68
Mean Square Error1.26
DF error220
t(b)-0.73
p(b)0.77
t(a)-1.36
p(a)0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.76
Treynor index (mean / b)14.16
Jensen alpha (a)-1.68
Mean-3.09
SD1.92
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.61
df221
t-1.49
p0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.53
Sortino ratio-1.62
Upside Potential Ratio0.16
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-3.40
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD1.92
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms219
N of observations222
Mean of predictor1.00
Mean of criterion-3.09
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion1.92
Covariance-0.04
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.89
Mean Square Error3.68
DF error220
t(b)-0.67
p(b)0.75
t(a)-1.37
p(a)0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-7.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.26
Treynor index (mean / b)15.44
Jensen alpha (a)-2.89
VaR(95%)0.19
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.23
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.05
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.92
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6821995593334784
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.3319165525259e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations10
Minimum0.07
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.69
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.07
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations222
Minimum0.23
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.55
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.80
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.85
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.93
Median0.93
Quartile 30.93
Maximum0.93
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.94
Median0.94
Quartile 30.94
Maximum0.94
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-465842016
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)5
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.96
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.03
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.12
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.95
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.01
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-4.23
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 44 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@MES U0long12Jun 16, 2020Jun 17, 2020($362)
@MES U0short95Jun 15, 2020Jun 16, 2020($53,837)
@MES U0long200Jun 12, 2020Jun 15, 2020($63,543)
@MES U0long220Jun 12, 2020Jun 12, 2020($15,956)
@MES M0short140Jun 11, 2020Jun 11, 2020$7,595
@MES M0short20Jun 11, 2020Jun 11, 2020$26
@MES M0long20Jun 11, 2020Jun 11, 2020$26
@ES M0short10Jun 10, 2020Jun 10, 2020$3,170
@NQ M0short10Jun 10, 2020Jun 10, 2020$2,120
@NQ M0short18Jun 10, 2020Jun 10, 2020$3,786
@ES M0long10Jun 10, 2020Jun 10, 2020$795
@MNQ M0short80Jun 10, 2020Jun 10, 2020$2,575
@MES M0short15Jun 9, 2020Jun 10, 2020$503
@MES M0short50Jun 9, 2020Jun 9, 2020$1,334
@ES M0short12Jun 9, 2020Jun 9, 2020$2,729
@ES M0short23Jun 9, 2020Jun 9, 2020$1,954
SPXS long1000Jun 9, 2020Jun 9, 2020($45)
@ES M0short40Jun 9, 2020Jun 9, 2020$12,305
@MNQ M0short20Jun 9, 2020Jun 9, 2020$381
@MES M0short20Jun 9, 2020Jun 9, 2020$676

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.