Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

Isla Capital Global FX

Futures · Forex · Started May 2020

Trades Own Strategy BrokerTransmit

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
3.6%
Max Drawdown
19.4%
Trades
180
Win Trades
47.2%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
10.3%

About this strategy

Objective: Long-term capital growth with lowered correlation to Equities and Hedge Fund strategies

Performance: Expected to return 20%-40% per year over 3-5 years wth Sharpe >1 (backtest returns, real-world results may differ)

Rationale: Longer-term currency factors are underplayed by institutional investors who mostly focus on short-term FX trading strategies. This leads to significant opportunities for those who have patience: time arbitrage

Strategy: Trades a basket of Developed and Emerging Market currencies once a month using a Quantitative Strategy

Backtest: Over two decades to the 1990s using simple rules with no fitting, and consistently produces positive returns with drawdowns less than a year

Signals: Long-term Currency Value, Carry, and Tail-risk. Hedges based on shorter-term Momentum
Correlation: Low to Equities (0.25) and other hedge funds (-0.10)

The PM is a qualified investment professional with many years experience in quantitative strategies and hedge funds. Any questions or want to have your own customized strategy please msg and I will respond immediately (e.g. higher leverage).

[email protected]
www.isla.capital


Macro / Fundamental Currencies

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-0.31.67.06.5-7.8-0.86.97.421.0
2021-0.524.0-4.2-3.0-7.3-1.1-3.11.60.00.00.00.03.4
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.3
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/20/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$143,625
Age78 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades180
# Profitable85
% Profitable47.2%
Avg trade duration25.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown19.4%
drawdown periodMarch 03, 2021 - Aug 22, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)3.6%
Avg win$2,713
Avg loss$1,980

Ratios

W:L ratio1.23
Sharpe Ratio0.23
Sortino Ratio0.35
Calmar Ratio0.89

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.14
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life159.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-137.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)3.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity19.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss18.0%
Chance of 20% account loss1.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?185246
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,980
Avg Win$2,713
# Winners85
Sum Trade PL (losers)$188,109
Sum Trade PL (winners)$230,619
Num Months Winners8
# Losers95
% Winners47.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table78

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)36201.25
Avg Position Time (hrs)603.35
Avg Trade Length25.10
Last Trade Ago1868

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)7.57
Daily leverage (max)18.41

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.06
Treynor Index0.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.08
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades38.35
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.19
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.81
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-6.46
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.15
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.66
df19
t0.88
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.88
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.19
Sortino ratio1.67
Upside Potential Ratio3.28
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms11
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error18
t(b)-0.02
p(b)0.50
t(a)0.79
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Treynor index (mean / b)-54.97
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean0.13
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.59
df19
t0.79
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.12
Sortino ratio1.37
Upside Potential Ratio2.96
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms11
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error18
t(b)0.05
p(b)0.49
t(a)0.69
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)15.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.13
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.98
df455
t1.30
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.47
Sortino ratio1.55
Upside Potential Ratio8.22
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.56
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms160
N negative terms296
N of observations456
Mean of predictor0.57
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.01
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error454
t(b)2.97
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.96
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)2.16
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0.12
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.92
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.92
df455
t1.22
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.41
Sortino ratio1.44
Upside Potential Ratio8.09
Upside part of mean0.68
Downside part of mean-0.56
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms160
N negative terms296
N of observations456
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.01
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error454
t(b)3.01
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.90
p(a)0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)2.01
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.02
SD0.00
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-6.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-6.44
df130
t-4.58
p0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-9.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-9.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.56
Sortino ratio-13.34
Upside Potential Ratio2.79
Upside part of mean0.00
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.00
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms130
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.19
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0.00
Covariance-0.00
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)-1.02
p(b)0.56
t(a)-4.38
p(a)0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)35.99
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
Mean-0.02
SD0.00
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-6.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-6.45
df130
t-4.59
p0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-9.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-9.34
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.57
Sortino ratio-13.34
Upside Potential Ratio2.78
Upside part of mean0.00
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.00
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms130
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.07
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0.00
Covariance-0.00
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)-1.01
p(b)0.56
t(a)-4.42
p(a)0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)36.83
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations20
Minimum0.91
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.72
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13
Number of observations456
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low49
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high51
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.05
Quartile 10.08
Median0.10
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations14
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.32
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.19
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.92
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-472052256
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)172
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.08
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.58
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.89
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.74
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.96
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.32

Trading record

Placed 353 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AUD/USD short60Aug 4, 2021Aug 31, 2021$609
USD/SEK short90Aug 4, 2021Aug 31, 2021($259)
USD/JPY short30Aug 4, 2021Aug 31, 2021($109)
USD/ZAR short40Aug 4, 2021Aug 31, 2021($752)
EUR/USD short30Aug 4, 2021Aug 31, 2021$111
USD/MXN short30Aug 4, 2021Aug 31, 2021($360)
USD/CAD long70Aug 4, 2021Aug 31, 2021$290
USD/CHF long90Aug 4, 2021Aug 31, 2021$957
GBP/USD short60Aug 4, 2021Aug 31, 2021$920
USD/NOK short110Aug 4, 2021Aug 31, 2021$1,543
USD/NOK short100Jul 5, 2021Jul 30, 2021($2,150)
USD/MXN short30Jul 5, 2021Jul 30, 2021($122)
USD/SEK short110Jul 5, 2021Jul 30, 2021($227)
USD/ZAR short40Jul 5, 2021Jul 30, 2021($795)
USD/JPY long20Jul 5, 2021Jul 30, 2021($174)
USD/CHF long90Jul 5, 2021Jul 30, 2021($1,854)
GBP/USD short20Jul 5, 2021Jul 30, 2021($258)
EUR/USD short70Jul 5, 2021Jul 30, 2021($259)
USD/SGD long10Jul 5, 2021Jul 30, 2021$49
USD/CAD long20Jul 5, 2021Jul 30, 2021$132
USD/CHF long100Jun 2, 2021Jun 30, 2021$3,196
EUR/USD short70Jun 2, 2021Jun 30, 2021$2,505
NZD/USD long80Jun 2, 2021Jun 30, 2021($2,155)
USD/SGD short60Jun 2, 2021Jun 30, 2021($1,046)
USD/JPY short10Jun 2, 2021Jun 30, 2021($67)
USD/SEK short50Jun 2, 2021Jun 30, 2021($1,239)
USD/NOK short50Jun 2, 2021Jun 30, 2021($1,399)
GBP/USD short40Jun 2, 2021Jun 30, 2021$1,247
AUD/USD long140Jun 2, 2021Jun 30, 2021($3,521)
USD/CAD long50Jun 2, 2021Jun 30, 2021$1,231

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.