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Edge Analytics

Equity · Options · Started Feb 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-28.7%
Max Drawdown
92.7%
Trades
117
Win Trades
62.4%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
40.7%

About this strategy

A mixed, Quantamental strategy. We own a data analysis company that actively takes positions in the public and private markets.

Technical: Quantitative trend-following strategy, with statistical determinations of trend continuations, reversals, probabilities, and hedging levels
Fundamental: Quantitative selection of highly correlated quarterly TTM values to price action, combined with regression analysis to develop a standard deviation of price target for risk determination.

Collective2 is a means of displaying how we implement our custom analytics into these positions for developing a track record.

Trend-following Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-33.2-5.226.916.0-22.124.516.7-7.32.2-10.821.18.0
20217.3-19.1-42.5-8.4-24.6-2.9-14.8-2.25.013.0-6.5-2.4-69.8
2022-16.1-12.830.1-10.8-5.8-22.38.7-5.0-15.66.47.0-7.1-42.7
202316.8-7.5-13.95.5-6.2-0.910.4-15.9-5.6-11.4-1.512.5-21.4
2024-12.28.7-2.3-8.4-9.10.517.08.2-3.42.56.9-7.4-3.1
202512.3-10.8-20.0-3.411.2-1.3-6.0-1.9-3.11.6-18.36.2-33.0
2026-0.58.019.1-2.6-3.31.50.9-13.01.40.69.5

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/18/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age81 months
What it tradesStocks, Options
# Trades117
# Profitable73
% Profitable62.4%
Avg trade duration60.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown92.7%
drawdown periodFeb 10, 2021 - Nov 28, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)-28.7%
Avg win$838
Avg loss$1,865

Ratios

W:L ratio0.75
Sharpe Ratio-0.38
Sortino Ratio-0.50
Calmar Ratio-0.65

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.24
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life127.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-218.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-28.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-22.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity1073.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.1%
Percent Trades Options0.6%
Short Options - Percent Covered10.9%
Percent Trades Stocks0.2%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)62.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)30.5%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,865
Avg Win$838
# Winners73
Sum Trade PL (losers)$82,054
Sum Trade PL (winners)$61,145
Num Months Winners33
# Losers44
% Winners62.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct416

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table81

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)87634.47
Avg Position Time (hrs)1460.57
Avg Trade Length60.90
Last Trade Ago1367

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.41
Daily leverage (max)19.19

Regression

Alpha-0.08
Beta0.63
Treynor Index-0.10

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.12
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.26
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.93
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.01
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.69
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.14
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.26

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.65
SD0.61
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.02
df23
t-1.50
p0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.39
Sortino ratio-1.19
Upside Potential Ratio1.06
Upside part of mean0.58
Downside part of mean-1.22
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.54
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms14
N of observations24
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion-0.65
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.61
Covariance0.10
r0.51
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.95
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.00
Mean Square Error0.29
DF error22
t(b)2.75
p(b)0.01
t(a)-2.49
p(a)0.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.68
Jensen alpha (a)-1.00
Mean-0.87
SD0.67
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.26
df23
t-1.84
p0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.18
Sortino ratio-1.36
Upside Potential Ratio0.82
Upside part of mean0.53
Downside part of mean-1.41
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.64
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms14
N of observations24
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion-0.87
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.67
Covariance0.12
r0.53
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.21
Mean Square Error0.34
DF error22
t(b)2.96
p(b)0.00
t(a)-2.83
p(a)1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.83
Jensen alpha (a)-1.21
VaR(95%)0.32
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.38
VaR(95%)0.26
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.40
Mean-0.52
SD0.79
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.67
df543
t-0.96
p0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.69
Sortino ratio-0.88
Upside Potential Ratio6.12
Upside part of mean3.63
Downside part of mean-4.16
Upside SD0.52
Downside SD0.59
N nonnegative terms261
N negative terms283
N of observations544
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion-0.52
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.79
Covariance0.07
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.60
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.78
Mean Square Error0.58
DF error542
t(b)6.12
p(b)0
t(a)-1.47
p(a)0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.88
Jensen alpha (a)-0.78
Mean-0.85
SD0.83
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.03
df543
t-1.49
p0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.33
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.33
Sortino ratio-1.27
Upside Potential Ratio5.23
Upside part of mean3.51
Downside part of mean-4.36
Upside SD0.48
Downside SD0.67
N nonnegative terms261
N negative terms283
N of observations544
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion-0.85
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.83
Covariance0.07
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.08
Mean Square Error0.64
DF error542
t(b)5.92
p(b)0
t(a)-1.93
p(a)0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.41
Jensen alpha (a)-1.08
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean-0.69
SD0.61
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.12
df130
t-0.80
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.66
Sortino ratio-1.53
Upside Potential Ratio7.23
Upside part of mean3.24
Downside part of mean-3.93
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.45
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms74
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.29
Mean of criterion-0.69
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.61
Covariance0.09
r0.41
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.55
Mean Square Error0.31
DF error129
t(b)5.16
p(b)0.24
t(a)-1.93
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.02
Jensen alpha (a)-1.55
Mean-0.87
SD0.61
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.42
df130
t-1.01
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.36
Sortino ratio-1.88
Upside Potential Ratio6.82
Upside part of mean3.16
Downside part of mean-4.03
Upside SD0.40
Downside SD0.46
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms74
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.21
Mean of criterion-0.87
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0.61
Covariance0.09
r0.41
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.68
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.69
Mean Square Error0.31
DF error129
t(b)5.18
p(b)0.24
t(a)-2.10
p(a)0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.29
Jensen alpha (a)-1.69
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations24
Minimum0.60
Quartile 10.83
Median0.93
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.25
Mean of quarter 10.73
Mean of quarter 20.88
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.18
Inter Quartile Range0.24
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.30
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.34
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.41
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.32
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.37
Number of observations544
Minimum0.56
Quartile 10.98
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.34
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low30
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high24
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.27
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations131
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.61
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.09
Quartile 10.23
Median0.36
Quartile 30.60
Maximum0.84
Mean of quarter 10.09
Mean of quarter 20.36
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.84
Inter Quartile Range0.37
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.05
Quartile 30.37
Maximum0.87
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.18
Mean of quarter 40.73
Inter Quartile Range0.36
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.06
Median0.12
Quartile 30.28
Maximum0.44
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.12
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.44
Inter Quartile Range0.22
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-536927168
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1752
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.41
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.57
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.68
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.68
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.52
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.39
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.56
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.65
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.76
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.47
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.69
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.57
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.30
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.30
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-7.32

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AI2320A135 long2Feb 19, 2021Jan 21, 2023($11,241)
PLTR2320A27 long2Feb 19, 2021Jan 21, 2023($3,161)
COCP long1000Feb 10, 2021May 13, 2021($975)
MP long300Nov 25, 2020May 13, 2021$2,973
INUV long1000Feb 26, 2021May 13, 2021($525)
RPRX long300Feb 2, 2021Feb 19, 2021$183
TNA short100Feb 16, 2021Feb 19, 2021$167
PENN2221A90 long1Jan 21, 2021Feb 16, 2021$753
KRBN long200Feb 4, 2021Feb 16, 2021$142
VST long500Feb 2, 2021Feb 16, 2021$670
FUBO2117L30 long1Feb 2, 2021Feb 16, 2021($757)
@ES H1short1Jan 31, 2021Feb 1, 2021($1,121)
TNA short300Jan 21, 2021Jan 29, 2021$2,061
CPER long200Dec 29, 2020Jan 21, 2021$90
WORK long100Nov 25, 2020Dec 23, 2020$286
PLTR long400Nov 25, 2020Dec 23, 2020$176
SPY short200Nov 19, 2020Nov 25, 2020($2,139)
AAPL long50Oct 6, 2020Nov 19, 2020$155
SPY2018K350 short2Nov 3, 2020Nov 19, 2020$533
CHWY long50Oct 6, 2020Nov 3, 2020$227
SPY2030J340 short2Sep 21, 2020Oct 31, 2020$699
LQD long100Sep 14, 2020Oct 6, 2020($124)
UNH2009J315 short2Sep 11, 2020Sep 21, 2020$439
CWH2016V30 short4Sep 8, 2020Sep 14, 2020$268
GLD2030U175 short3Sep 9, 2020Sep 11, 2020$2
MO short100Sep 9, 2020Sep 11, 2020$34
VXX2025I30.5 short6Sep 8, 2020Sep 10, 2020$514
SPY2028I344 short1Sep 4, 2020Sep 9, 2020$135
KR short300Sep 8, 2020Sep 8, 2020($42)
EEM2025I45.5 short2Sep 4, 2020Sep 4, 2020($1)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.