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Acadia Crude Oil

Futures · Futures · Started Feb 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
122.6%
Max Drawdown
25.7%
Trades
71
Win Trades
36.6%
Profit Factor
2.20
Win Months
7.5%

About this strategy

Acadia Crude Oil is a futures strategy that trades both long and short with WTI Crude Oil. The strategy is designed to be adaptive incorporating direction, momentum & volatility to enter positions with the intention of holding trades for up to hours at a time to maximize trade efficiency. Position sizing is also driven by volatility metrics so it aims to trade smaller during more volatile times and larger during more calm markets. Position sizing is also linked with account value to trade proportionally as equity rises or falls.

The strategy’s trading style is a “structured” approach instead of a discretionary or systematic one, meaning that it has rules to trade by but also uses human input to update parameters as required with the objective of adapting more dynamically to changing market profile. Using this type of approach intends to create a multifaceted trading edge with the goal of a positive expectancy over a large group of trades. Participants should only consider this strategy if they can commit to it for at least 6 months, are interested in the strategy concept and are not investing just because of the track record. During sideways markets the strategy may not trade for days at a time to hopefully reduce whipsaw trades.

This is a more aggressive strategy that isn’t for everyone since it will have its ups and downs and I realized a long time ago that the future is not predictable. All we can really do in the markets is get a perspective on what is presently happening, create a framework to judge it by and update that framework as required.

Acadia Crude Oil is currently trading the Full size Crude Oil contract for better market liquidity.

Commodities

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202023.3115.662.66.7-5.0-4.6-2.01.30.2-2.20.0306.5
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/12/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age81 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades71
# Profitable26
% Profitable36.6%
Avg trade duration2.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown25.7%
drawdown periodJune 07, 2020 - Oct 27, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)122.6%
Avg win$2,338
Avg loss$621

Ratios

W:L ratio2.17
Sharpe Ratio0.76
Sortino Ratio1.93
Calmar Ratio7.35

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.16
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life127.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)269.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)122.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)1.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)24.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity24.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)291
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$621
Avg Win$2,338
# Winners26
Sum Trade PL (losers)$27,956
Sum Trade PL (winners)$60,786
Num Months Winners6
# Losers45
% Winners36.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table80

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3483.50
Avg Position Time (hrs)58.06
Avg Trade Length2.40
Last Trade Ago2158

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.99
Daily leverage (max)3.06

Regression

Alpha0.07
Beta-0.20
Treynor Index-0.31

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.63
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.76
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.20
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.44
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.61

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.93
SD1.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.61
df11
t1.73
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.69
Sortino ratio14.60
Upside Potential Ratio16.04
Upside part of mean2.12
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD1.19
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms7
N of observations12
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion1.93
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion1.11
Covariance-0.19
r-0.62
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.52
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2.69
Mean Square Error0.83
DF error10
t(b)-2.52
p(b)0.98
t(a)2.80
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.84
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.77
Jensen alpha (a)2.69
Mean1.43
SD0.84
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.59
df11
t1.71
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.66
Sortino ratio10.18
Upside Potential Ratio11.60
Upside part of mean1.63
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.89
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms7
N of observations12
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion1.43
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.84
Covariance-0.15
r-0.62
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.78
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.90
Mean Square Error0.48
DF error10
t(b)-2.49
p(b)0.98
t(a)2.66
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.50
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.80
Jensen alpha (a)1.90
VaR(95%)0.24
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.31
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean1.60
SD0.72
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.21
df272
t2.26
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.14
Sortino ratio7.03
Upside Potential Ratio12.73
Upside part of mean2.89
Downside part of mean-1.29
Upside SD0.69
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms82
N negative terms191
N of observations273
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion1.60
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.72
Covariance-0.07
r-0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.60
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.23
Mean Square Error0.48
DF error271
t(b)-5.03
p(b)1
t(a)2.66
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.14
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.65
Jensen alpha (a)1.80
Mean1.37
SD0.64
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.14
df272
t2.19
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.07
Sortino ratio5.83
Upside Potential Ratio11.43
Upside part of mean2.70
Downside part of mean-1.32
Upside SD0.60
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms82
N negative terms191
N of observations273
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion1.37
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.64
Covariance-0.07
r-0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.53
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.52
Mean Square Error0.38
DF error271
t(b)-5.03
p(b)1
t(a)2.53
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.71
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.57
Jensen alpha (a)1.52
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.00
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.03
df130
t-0.02
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.75
Sortino ratio-0.04
Upside Potential Ratio5.59
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms113
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance-0.01
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)-2.16
p(b)0.62
t(a)0.34
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.49
Treynor index (mean / b)0.03
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
Mean-0.02
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.10
df130
t-0.07
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.67
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.67
Sortino ratio-0.16
Upside Potential Ratio5.45
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms113
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance-0.01
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)-2.17
p(b)0.62
t(a)0.27
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.26
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.47
Treynor index (mean / b)0.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations12
Minimum0.87
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.19
Maximum1.82
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.65
Inter Quartile Range0.21
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.81
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)4.38
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations273
Minimum0.87
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.51
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low28
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high45
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.81
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.59
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low32
Percentage of outliers low0.24
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high18
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.41
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.42
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.14
Quartile 10.14
Median0.14
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations14
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.05
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.20
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.94
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-299920096
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)142
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)3.31
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)3.31
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)24.14
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.57
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)3.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)3.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)14.81
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs21.54
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal41.69
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.10
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.69

Trading record

Placed 111 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QCL F1short1Nov 19, 2020Nov 19, 2020($88)
QCL Z0short1Nov 17, 2020Nov 17, 2020($388)
QCL Z0short1Nov 17, 2020Nov 17, 2020($148)
QCL Z0long1Nov 17, 2020Nov 17, 2020($298)
QCL Z0long1Nov 16, 2020Nov 16, 2020($18)
QCL Z0long1Nov 16, 2020Nov 16, 2020$572
QCL Z0short1Nov 13, 2020Nov 13, 2020$52
QCL Z0short1Nov 13, 2020Nov 13, 2020($138)
QCL Z0short1Nov 13, 2020Nov 13, 2020($38)
QCL Z0long1Nov 12, 2020Nov 12, 2020($468)
QCL Z0long1Nov 12, 2020Nov 12, 2020($178)
QCL Z0short1Nov 12, 2020Nov 12, 2020($248)
QCL Z0short1Nov 12, 2020Nov 12, 2020($188)
QCL Z0long1Nov 10, 2020Nov 10, 2020($8)
QCL Z0long1Nov 9, 2020Nov 9, 2020$2,292
QCL Z0short1Oct 25, 2020Nov 3, 2020$2,272
QCL Z0long1Oct 20, 2020Oct 25, 2020($2,078)
QCL Z0short1Oct 15, 2020Oct 20, 2020($1,558)
QCL X0short1Oct 15, 2020Oct 15, 2020($398)
QCL X0short1Sep 21, 2020Oct 6, 2020($368)
@QM V0short1Sep 2, 2020Sep 15, 2020$1,755
@QM V0long1Aug 25, 2020Sep 2, 2020($277)
@QM V0long1Aug 19, 2020Aug 20, 2020($421)
@QM U0long1Aug 4, 2020Aug 19, 2020$734
@QM U0short2Jul 30, 2020Aug 4, 2020($974)
@QM U0long1Jul 14, 2020Jul 24, 2020($181)
@QM Q0long1Jul 8, 2020Jul 9, 2020($496)
@QM Q0long2Jul 6, 2020Jul 7, 2020($616)
@QM Q0long2Jul 2, 2020Jul 3, 2020($287)
@QM Q0long2Jun 30, 2020Jul 1, 2020($487)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.