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Golden Swan

Equity · Stocks · Started Jan 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-0.2%
Max Drawdown
3.2%
Trades
34
Win Trades
14.7%
Profit Factor
0.40
Win Months
0.0%

About this strategy

All entry orders come with stop loss and take profit exit orders. Up to 50 positions can be open at the same time. Holding time of winning trade can be 1 or 2 months.

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-0.4-0.9-0.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-1.7
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/16/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age82 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades34
# Profitable5
% Profitable14.7%
Avg trade duration15.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown3.2%
drawdown periodFeb 20, 2020 - Feb 29, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)-0.2%
Avg win$98
Avg loss$43

Ratios

W:L ratio0.40
Sharpe Ratio-3.60
Sortino Ratio-4.08
Calmar Ratio-0.57

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.09
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life130.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-135.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-0.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-0.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity2.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$43
Avg Win$98
# Winners5
Sum Trade PL (losers)$1,243
Sum Trade PL (winners)$488
Num Months Winners0
# Losers29
% Winners14.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct10

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table82

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)22176
Avg Position Time (hrs)369.60
Avg Trade Length15.40
Last Trade Ago2404

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.12
Daily leverage (max)0.28

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index-2.50

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-1.74
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.79
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.22
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.97
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.57

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.04
SD0.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.03
df12
t-2.25
p0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.06
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.02
Sortino ratio-1.91
Upside Potential Ratio0.15
Upside part of mean0.00
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.00
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms12
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.80
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.54
SD of criterion0.02
Covariance0.01
r0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error11
t(b)2.24
p(b)0.02
t(a)-3.29
p(a)1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.09
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
Mean-0.04
SD0.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.02
df12
t-2.24
p0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.03
Sortino ratio-1.90
Upside Potential Ratio0.15
Upside part of mean0.00
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.00
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms12
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.65
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.54
SD of criterion0.02
Covariance0.01
r0.65
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error11
t(b)2.82
p(b)0.01
t(a)-3.61
p(a)1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.80
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.04
SD0.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.64
df297
t-3.89
p1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.78
Sortino ratio-3.96
Upside Potential Ratio1.37
Upside part of mean0.01
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms281
N of observations298
Mean of predictor0.82
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0.01
Covariance0.00
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error296
t(b)2.16
p(b)0.02
t(a)-4.13
p(a)1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-13.30
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
Mean-0.04
SD0.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.64
df297
t-3.89
p1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.78
Sortino ratio-3.95
Upside Potential Ratio1.36
Upside part of mean0.01
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms281
N of observations298
Mean of predictor0.71
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0.01
Covariance0.00
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error296
t(b)2.17
p(b)0.02
t(a)-4.10
p(a)1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-13.18
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.07
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.96
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6807532290965504
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)2.33045597387768e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations13
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations298
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low27
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high21
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.56
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.94
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.02
Median0.02
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.02
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.02
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-412580448
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)9
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.67
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.92
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.57
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.02
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-8.24
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
NFLX short2Mar 9, 2020Mar 23, 2020($41)
KOD long8Mar 2, 2020Mar 9, 2020($56)
OPRA long47Mar 3, 2020Mar 6, 2020($53)
PVG long72Feb 24, 2020Feb 28, 2020($66)
INCY long8Feb 13, 2020Feb 27, 2020($17)
DLTR long9Feb 19, 2020Feb 27, 2020($50)
CMCSA long16Feb 5, 2020Feb 27, 2020($51)
SBUX long8Feb 4, 2020Feb 26, 2020($52)
JACK long9Feb 10, 2020Feb 26, 2020($49)
XLNX long8Feb 11, 2020Feb 25, 2020($52)
QLYS long9Jan 23, 2020Feb 25, 2020($16)
CAMP long59Feb 13, 2020Feb 25, 2020($15)
ISRG long2Feb 11, 2020Feb 25, 2020($48)
HEI long5Feb 7, 2020Feb 25, 2020($46)
WBA long14Feb 5, 2020Feb 24, 2020($51)
TXN long6Feb 4, 2020Feb 24, 2020($17)
CSCO long15Feb 5, 2020Feb 24, 2020($53)
FCX long51Feb 5, 2020Feb 24, 2020($54)
WYNN long5Feb 4, 2020Feb 24, 2020($56)
BIDU long4Feb 11, 2020Feb 24, 2020($54)
GILD long15Jan 28, 2020Feb 24, 2020$134
VCRA long26Jan 24, 2020Feb 18, 2020$126
GTT long38Feb 11, 2020Feb 14, 2020($52)
NTAP long11Feb 5, 2020Feb 13, 2020($39)
LBTYK long50Feb 5, 2020Feb 10, 2020($52)
EBAY long22Feb 4, 2020Feb 7, 2020($18)
CTSH long16Jan 17, 2020Feb 6, 2020$96
TRHC long11Jan 17, 2020Feb 6, 2020$121
JCI long24Jan 31, 2020Jan 31, 2020($40)
AAL long25Jan 23, 2020Jan 27, 2020($55)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.