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CkNN Algo V

Stocks · Started Nov 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
13.2%
Max Drawdown
30.3%
Trades
210
Win Trades
61.4%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
22.6%

About this strategy

A pattern recognition system, using multiple sets of two custom algorithms (similar to the random forest); trading ETF's such as, but not limited to, NUGT, DUST, GUSH, DRIP, TQQQ, SQQQ, UVXY, SVXY, and etc. Subscription costs for new subscribers may increase soon. Current subscribers may be "grandfathered in." (This system and summary were updated on September 28, 2020; and are subject to change without advance notice.)

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201915.98.725.9
202016.8-1.2-11.916.0-15.12.612.810.211.91.519.4-4.365.5
20213.5-12.04.2-4.016.6-4.2-2.39.36.96.84.81.432.3
20228.5-13.0-9.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-14.2
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/3/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$250,000
Age85 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades210
# Profitable129
% Profitable61.4%
Avg trade duration2.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown30.3%
drawdown periodFeb 19, 2020 - March 20, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)13.2%
Avg win$12,668
Avg loss$15,888

Ratios

W:L ratio1.27
Sharpe Ratio0.58
Sortino Ratio0.92
Calmar Ratio1.23

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.08
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life149.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-15.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)13.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)13.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity41.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss47.5%
Chance of 20% account loss20.5%
Chance of 30% account loss5.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$15,888
Avg Win$12,668
# Winners129
Sum Trade PL (losers)$1,286,932
Sum Trade PL (winners)$1,634,133
Num Months Winners19
# Losers81
% Winners61.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct143

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table84

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3962.10
Avg Position Time (hrs)66.04
Avg Trade Length2.80
Last Trade Ago1690

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.77
Daily leverage (max)2.88

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.07
Treynor Index0.47

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.09
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades14.29
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.37
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.54
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.17
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.36
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.92
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.90
df33
t1.55
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.09
Sortino ratio1.51
Upside Potential Ratio3.08
Upside part of mean0.72
Downside part of mean-0.37
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms14
N of observations34
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.36
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.01
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error32
t(b)0.41
p(b)0.34
t(a)1.32
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.82
Treynor index (mean / b)3.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
Mean0.28
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.71
df33
t1.22
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.88
Sortino ratio1.09
Upside Potential Ratio2.64
Upside part of mean0.68
Downside part of mean-0.40
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms14
N of observations34
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.01
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error32
t(b)0.61
p(b)0.27
t(a)0.96
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.73
Treynor index (mean / b)1.77
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
VaR(95%)0.15
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
Mean0.31
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.18
df748
t2.00
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.34
Sortino ratio1.86
Upside Potential Ratio8.87
Upside part of mean1.48
Downside part of mean-1.17
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms296
N negative terms453
N of observations749
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.01
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error747
t(b)2.27
p(b)0.01
t(a)1.84
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.59
Treynor index (mean / b)4.22
Jensen alpha (a)0.29
Mean0.28
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.06
df748
t1.79
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.22
Sortino ratio1.63
Upside Potential Ratio8.61
Upside part of mean1.46
Downside part of mean-1.19
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms296
N negative terms453
N of observations749
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.25
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error747
t(b)2.36
p(b)0.01
t(a)1.65
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Treynor index (mean / b)3.63
Jensen alpha (a)0.25
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.10
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.00
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6799747125870592
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.86647866126328e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations34
Minimum0.82
Quartile 10.99
Median1.05
Quartile 31.11
Maximum1.23
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.08
Mean of quarter 41.16
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.82
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.80
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.11
Number of observations749
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low53
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high52
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.20
Quartile 10.21
Median0.22
Quartile 30.25
Maximum0.28
Mean of quarter 10.20
Mean of quarter 20.22
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations28
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.27
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.14
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.22
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.98
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-415245696
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)30
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.49
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.36
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.27
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.27
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.94
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.49
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.36
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.23
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.21
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.22
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 397 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TQQQ long5000Feb 28, 2022Mar 14, 2022($57,780)
TQQQ long9000Feb 17, 2022Feb 22, 2022($40,831)
DUST long27000Feb 8, 2022Feb 16, 2022($53,416)
DRIP long10000Jan 27, 2022Feb 4, 2022($5,628)
TQQQ long7000Jan 19, 2022Jan 21, 2022($67,490)
TQQQ long7200Jan 10, 2022Jan 13, 2022$44,174
SQQQ long79000Dec 31, 2021Jan 10, 2022$93,987
DRIP long90000Dec 30, 2021Dec 31, 2021$17,995
TQQQ long2700Dec 21, 2021Dec 30, 2021$44,458
TQQQ long2900Dec 6, 2021Dec 20, 2021($27,342)
TQQQ long3000Dec 2, 2021Dec 3, 2021($36,092)
TQQQ long2600Nov 15, 2021Nov 22, 2021$40,092
TQQQ long2700Nov 11, 2021Nov 12, 2021$13,284
DUST long24000Nov 9, 2021Nov 10, 2021($26,795)
DRIP long100000Nov 8, 2021Nov 8, 2021($5,508)
NUGT long9000Nov 1, 2021Nov 4, 2021$10,503
GUSH long4000Oct 28, 2021Oct 29, 2021$5,237
TQQQ long2900Oct 27, 2021Oct 28, 2021$5,777
DRIP long90000Oct 25, 2021Oct 27, 2021$11,524
TQQQ long3100Oct 8, 2021Oct 20, 2021$48,984
DUST long17000Oct 4, 2021Oct 6, 2021($25,748)
NUGT long10000Sep 29, 2021Oct 1, 2021$11,836
NUGT long9800Sep 29, 2021Sep 29, 2021($8,138)
TQQQ long3100Sep 27, 2021Sep 28, 2021($31,440)
SQQQ long55000Sep 24, 2021Sep 27, 2021$2,352
DUST long18000Sep 21, 2021Sep 24, 2021$19,015
DUST long19000Sep 15, 2021Sep 17, 2021$37,918
NUGT long7600Sep 7, 2021Sep 15, 2021($5,725)
DUST long19000Sep 1, 2021Sep 2, 2021$6,449
NUGT long7400Aug 30, 2021Sep 1, 2021$2,252

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.