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The Rooster Micro

Futures · Futures · Started Oct 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-8.7%
Max Drawdown
66.2%
Trades
899
Win Trades
77.3%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
3.5%

Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20196.51.511.620.7
2020-0.8-43.2-5.8-2.0-2.1-2.1-2.2-2.2-2.3-2.3-2.4-2.4-56.7
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/8/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age86 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades899
# Profitable695
% Profitable77.3%
Avg trade duration3.1 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown66.2%
drawdown periodFeb 22, 2020 - Feb 27, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)-8.7%
Avg win$34
Avg loss$118

Ratios

W:L ratio0.97
Sharpe Ratio-0.09
Sortino Ratio-0.13
Calmar Ratio-0.08

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.25
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life161.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-208.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-8.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-1.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity175.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$118
Avg Win$34
# Winners695
Sum Trade PL (losers)$24,097
Sum Trade PL (winners)$23,475
Num Months Winners3
# Losers204
% Winners77.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table86

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)184.62
Avg Position Time (hrs)3.08
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago2135

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)13.05
Daily leverage (max)41.20

Regression

Alpha-0.03
Beta0.46
Treynor Index-0.02

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades0
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.03
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.10
df21
t-0.13
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.54
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.35
Sortino ratio-0.12
Upside Potential Ratio0.96
Upside part of mean0.22
Downside part of mean-0.25
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms18
N of observations22
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.04
r0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.45
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.25
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error20
t(b)2.22
p(b)0.28
t(a)-1.13
p(a)0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.25
Mean-0.07
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.22
df21
t-0.31
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.23
Sortino ratio-0.27
Upside Potential Ratio0.80
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.28
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms18
N of observations22
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.05
r0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.58
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.32
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error20
t(b)2.72
p(b)0.24
t(a)-1.47
p(a)0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.32
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean0.07
SD0.51
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.14
df493
t0.20
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.57
Sortino ratio0.19
Upside Potential Ratio2.43
Upside part of mean0.96
Downside part of mean-0.89
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms426
N of observations494
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.51
Covariance0.05
r0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.15
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error492
t(b)6.62
p(b)0
t(a)-0.42
p(a)0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Treynor index (mean / b)0.18
Jensen alpha (a)-0.15
Mean-0.07
SD0.56
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.13
df493
t-0.17
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.30
Sortino ratio-0.15
Upside Potential Ratio1.93
Upside part of mean0.92
Downside part of mean-0.99
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.48
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms426
N of observations494
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.56
Covariance0.06
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.28
Mean Square Error0.29
DF error492
t(b)6.50
p(b)0
t(a)-0.73
p(a)0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.49
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.16
Jensen alpha (a)-0.28
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.10
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.98
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6810945716224000
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.84659898554148e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations22
Minimum0.73
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.79
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.27
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.34
Number of observations494
Minimum0.59
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low27
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high70
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.56
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.38
Quartile 10.38
Median0.38
Quartile 30.38
Maximum0.38
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.55
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.33
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.55
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.69
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.32
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.15
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.31
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-567085696
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)5
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.25
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.13
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.61
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 3170 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@MNQ H0long6Feb 27, 2020Mar 19, 2020($1,731)
@ES H0long1Mar 4, 2020Mar 4, 2020$1,042
@MYM H0long5Mar 4, 2020Mar 4, 2020$250
@MYM H0long6Feb 27, 2020Mar 2, 2020($2,647)
@MES H0long4Feb 27, 2020Feb 28, 2020($1,900)
@M2K H0long3Feb 27, 2020Feb 27, 2020($650)
@M2K H0short2Feb 27, 2020Feb 27, 2020$58
@MES H0short2Feb 27, 2020Feb 27, 2020$79
@MYM H0short2Feb 27, 2020Feb 27, 2020$54
@MES H0short2Feb 27, 2020Feb 27, 2020$99
@MYM H0short2Feb 27, 2020Feb 27, 2020$86
@MNQ H0short2Feb 27, 2020Feb 27, 2020$86
@MES H0long2Feb 27, 2020Feb 27, 2020$159
@MNQ H0long2Feb 27, 2020Feb 27, 2020$173
@MYM H0long2Feb 27, 2020Feb 27, 2020$152
@MES H0long6Feb 27, 2020Feb 27, 2020$241
@MYM H0long7Feb 27, 2020Feb 27, 2020$134
@M2K H0long4Feb 27, 2020Feb 27, 2020$153
@MNQ H0long6Feb 27, 2020Feb 27, 2020$158
@MYM H0long2Feb 27, 2020Feb 27, 2020$79
@MES H0long2Feb 27, 2020Feb 27, 2020$101
@MNQ H0long2Feb 27, 2020Feb 27, 2020$142
@MYM H0long2Feb 26, 2020Feb 26, 2020$27
@MES H0long2Feb 26, 2020Feb 26, 2020$9
@MNQ H0long3Feb 26, 2020Feb 26, 2020$96
@MYM H0short2Feb 26, 2020Feb 26, 2020$45
@MNQ H0short1Feb 26, 2020Feb 26, 2020$104
@MES H0long2Feb 26, 2020Feb 26, 2020$48
@MYM H0long2Feb 26, 2020Feb 26, 2020$51
@MNQ H0long2Feb 26, 2020Feb 26, 2020$84

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.