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USTX-SHUN

Stocks · Started Apr 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-7.8%
Max Drawdown
59.3%
Trades
156
Win Trades
55.8%
Profit Factor
0.60
Win Months
8.8%

About this strategy

Our team manages the strategies prefixed ‘USTX’ on C2. Highlights for USTX-SHUN are
- Our portfolios are comprised of (long) Stocks only, no futures or options
- Fully automated
- Uses a proprietary strategy-development and portfolio-management framework
- USTX-SHUN trades SP100 stocks plus ETFS like GLD, SLV and DBO, as well as TLT
- Rebalances every week or every two-weeks under normal (low volatility) market conditions

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20193.5-14.323.22.06.00.92.8-1.62.523.5
20203.9-8.3-43.7-16.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-55.3
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/16/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age91 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades156
# Profitable87
% Profitable55.8%
Avg trade duration14.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown59.4%
drawdown periodFeb 10, 2020 - April 09, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)-7.8%
Avg win$322
Avg loss$720

Ratios

W:L ratio0.58
Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Sortino Ratio-0.78
Calmar Ratio-0.43

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.08
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life163.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-212.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-7.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-6.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity139.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss3.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated76.5%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$720
Avg Win$322
# Winners87
Sum Trade PL (losers)$49,699
Sum Trade PL (winners)$27,972
Num Months Winners8
# Losers69
% Winners55.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct923

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table91

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)21511.53
Avg Position Time (hrs)358.53
Avg Trade Length14.90
Last Trade Ago2371

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.03
Daily leverage (max)6.02

Regression

Alpha-0.03
Beta0.05
Treynor Index-0.49

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.19
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.35
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.05
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.07
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats24.13
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.51
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.18
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.30

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.21
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.50
df21
t-0.71
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.96
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.95
Sortino ratio-0.58
Upside Potential Ratio0.62
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.44
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.37
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms15
N of observations22
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion-0.21
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance0.06
r0.34
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.31
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.40
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error20
t(b)1.62
p(b)0.33
t(a)-1.28
p(a)0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.68
Jensen alpha (a)-0.40
Mean-0.31
SD0.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.62
df21
t-0.88
p0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.84
Sortino ratio-0.69
Upside Potential Ratio0.47
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.46
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms15
N of observations22
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion-0.31
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0.48
Covariance0.10
r0.47
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.55
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error20
t(b)2.37
p(b)0.27
t(a)-1.63
p(a)0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.64
Jensen alpha (a)-0.55
VaR(95%)0.23
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.27
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.21
Mean-0.28
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.26
df483
t-1.72
p0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.18
Sortino ratio-1.53
Upside Potential Ratio2.60
Upside part of mean0.49
Downside part of mean-0.77
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms134
N negative terms350
N of observations484
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion-0.28
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.32
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error482
t(b)2.07
p(b)0.02
t(a)-1.91
p(a)0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.14
Jensen alpha (a)-0.32
Mean-0.31
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.35
df483
t-1.84
p0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.09
Sortino ratio-1.60
Upside Potential Ratio2.46
Upside part of mean0.48
Downside part of mean-0.79
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms134
N negative terms350
N of observations484
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion-0.31
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.01
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.34
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error482
t(b)2.25
p(b)0.01
t(a)-2.03
p(a)0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.05
Jensen alpha (a)-0.34
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.23
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.12
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6793160793522176
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)7.38722487842191e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations22
Minimum0.59
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 10.87
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.75
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.69
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.99
Number of observations484
Minimum0.87
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low95
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high102
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.98
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.32
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.56
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.05
Median0.10
Quartile 30.33
Maximum0.56
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.10
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.56
Inter Quartile Range0.28
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations18
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.57
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.49
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.27
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-489068160
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)59
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.44
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.44
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.92
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.43
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.58
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-8.24
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 36 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SQQQ long2500Mar 26, 2020Apr 9, 2020($8,900)
SQQQ long1500Mar 25, 2020Mar 26, 2020($110)
BA long50Mar 23, 2020Mar 24, 2020$1,119
TSLA long20Mar 23, 2020Mar 24, 2020$1,244
TQQQ long1000Mar 20, 2020Mar 23, 2020($4,735)
WDC long200Mar 18, 2020Mar 19, 2020$566
INTC long700Mar 18, 2020Mar 19, 2020$79
BA long50Mar 2, 2020Mar 18, 2020($9,887)
WDC long102Mar 2, 2020Mar 18, 2020($3,098)
SLV long15Mar 3, 2020Mar 18, 2020($76)
TSLA long20Mar 3, 2020Mar 18, 2020($7,289)
SLV long612Mar 2, 2020Mar 3, 2020$172
NKE long100Mar 2, 2020Mar 3, 2020$137
AMD long201Mar 2, 2020Mar 3, 2020$121
TSLA long20Mar 2, 2020Mar 2, 2020($204)
INTC long38Feb 25, 2020Feb 28, 2020($265)
GILD long53Feb 25, 2020Feb 28, 2020($162)
AAPL long4Feb 25, 2020Feb 28, 2020($132)
DUK long32Feb 25, 2020Feb 28, 2020($370)
NEE long52Feb 25, 2020Feb 28, 2020($1,571)
LLY long51Feb 25, 2020Feb 28, 2020($749)
BMY long12Feb 25, 2020Feb 28, 2020($69)
GE long211Feb 25, 2020Feb 28, 2020($312)
AGN long111Feb 25, 2020Feb 28, 2020($975)
SPG long34Feb 19, 2020Feb 25, 2020$57
WFC long88Feb 19, 2020Feb 25, 2020($101)
MO long148Feb 19, 2020Feb 25, 2020($247)
XOM long119Feb 19, 2020Feb 25, 2020($589)
TUR long107Feb 21, 2020Feb 25, 2020($102)
WBA long113Feb 19, 2020Feb 25, 2020($372)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.