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Enhanced VRP

Stocks · Started Jan 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
4.0%
Max Drawdown
45.3%
Trades
134
Win Trades
37.3%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
35.1%

About this strategy

This strategy generates automated end-of-day buy/sell/hold signals for SVXY and VXX.
- Signals are generated by an automated algorithm that utilizes Volatility Risk Premium and momentum measurements as inputs.
- Trades will be placed at 3:58pm ET if our indicators detect a change in direction.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20190.45.1-5.45.7-8.93.13.7-12.30.3-27.0-4.4-0.3-37.1
2020-0.3-4.2148.89.82.5-15.47.22.0-7.7-4.11.00.1121.4
2021-11.810.612.05.23.46.7-3.17.2-0.4-5.3-4.95.925.5
2022-6.511.4-5.3-1.0-9.3-4.211.0-5.4-3.918.9-1.63.33.5
202317.74.8-25.3-0.116.77.2-0.0-1.4-4.2-0.0-1.63.510.5
2024-3.1-10.6-4.1-0.11.31.0-18.137.9-10.1-7.85.3-9.9-24.6
2025-10.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-10.2
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/31/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age94 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades134
# Profitable50
% Profitable37.3%
Avg trade duration11.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown45.4%
drawdown periodMarch 19, 2019 - March 03, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)4.0%
Avg win$5,123
Avg loss$2,794

Ratios

W:L ratio1.09
Sharpe Ratio0.17
Sortino Ratio0.29
Calmar Ratio0.20

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.09
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life181.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-148.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)4.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity82.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss89.5%
Chance of 20% account loss70.5%
Chance of 30% account loss54.0%
Chance of 40% account loss31.0%
Chance of 50% account loss16.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)8.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)2.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,794
Avg Win$5,123
# Winners50
Sum Trade PL (losers)$234,698
Sum Trade PL (winners)$256,126
Num Months Winners33
# Losers84
% Winners37.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table94

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)16340.05
Avg Position Time (hrs)272.33
Avg Trade Length11.30
Last Trade Ago638

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.82
Daily leverage (max)1.54

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.15
Treynor Index0.12

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-11.96
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.83
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats44.41
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats29.44
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.40
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.21
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.08

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.24
SD0.78
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.30
df50
t0.62
p0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.25
Sortino ratio1.01
Upside Potential Ratio2.95
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.45
Upside SD0.74
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms23
N negative terms28
N of observations51
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.78
Covariance-0.10
r-0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.97
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.70
Mean Square Error0.43
DF error49
t(b)-4.67
p(b)1.00
t(a)2.10
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.37
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.12
Jensen alpha (a)0.70
Mean0.06
SD0.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.10
df50
t0.21
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.85
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.05
Sortino ratio0.22
Upside Potential Ratio2.12
Upside part of mean0.53
Downside part of mean-0.48
Upside SD0.47
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms23
N negative terms28
N of observations51
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.54
Covariance-0.07
r-0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.22
DF error49
t(b)-4.31
p(b)1.00
t(a)1.34
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.78
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.05
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
VaR(95%)0.22
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.27
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
Mean0.12
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.33
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.33
df1117
t0.68
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.28
Sortino ratio0.51
Upside Potential Ratio7.13
Upside part of mean1.70
Downside part of mean-1.58
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms480
N negative terms638
N of observations1118
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance0.01
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error1116
t(b)4.09
p(b)0.44
t(a)0.44
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.43
Treynor index (mean / b)0.69
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.05
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.15
df1117
t0.31
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.10
Sortino ratio0.22
Upside Potential Ratio6.69
Upside part of mean1.66
Downside part of mean-1.61
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms480
N negative terms638
N of observations1118
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance0.01
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error1116
t(b)4.10
p(b)0.44
t(a)0.10
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)0.31
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.59
SD0.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.22
df130
t-0.86
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.56
Sortino ratio-1.73
Upside Potential Ratio3.53
Upside part of mean1.20
Downside part of mean-1.79
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.34
N nonnegative terms25
N negative terms106
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.89
Mean of criterion-0.59
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.48
Covariance0.03
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.44
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.98
Mean Square Error0.22
DF error129
t(b)2.96
p(b)0.34
t(a)-1.45
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.34
Jensen alpha (a)-0.98
Mean-0.71
SD0.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.45
df130
t-1.03
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.33
Sortino ratio-1.91
Upside Potential Ratio3.11
Upside part of mean1.15
Downside part of mean-1.85
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.37
N nonnegative terms25
N negative terms106
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.85
Mean of criterion-0.71
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.48
Covariance0.03
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.45
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.08
Mean Square Error0.22
DF error129
t(b)3.00
p(b)0.34
t(a)-1.60
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.58
Jensen alpha (a)-1.08
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations51
Minimum0.78
Quartile 10.94
Median1
Quartile 31.06
Maximum2.48
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 20.97
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.20
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high2.48
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.39
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations1118
Minimum0.80
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low66
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high48
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.24
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.80
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low26
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high16
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.06
Median0.20
Quartile 30.33
Maximum0.41
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.18
Mean of quarter 30.21
Mean of quarter 40.39
Inter Quartile Range0.27
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations14
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.05
Quartile 30.24
Maximum0.44
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.36
Inter Quartile Range0.22
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.06
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.41
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.43
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.42
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.43
Number of observations1
Minimum0.29
Quartile 10.29
Median0.29
Quartile 30.29
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-461698880
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)350
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.21
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.22
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.32
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.20
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.24
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.90
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.57
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.49
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.71
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-7.90

Trading record

Placed 36 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SVIX long2876Jan 17, 2025Jan 27, 2025($5,383)
VIXY long1757Jan 16, 2025Jan 17, 2025$171
SVIX long3255Jan 2, 2025Jan 10, 2025($4,058)
VIXY long1746Dec 30, 2024Jan 2, 2025$2,631
SVIX long2929Dec 24, 2024Dec 27, 2024($4,076)
VIXY long1930Dec 23, 2024Dec 24, 2024($5,139)
SVIX long2792Nov 13, 2024Nov 15, 2024($4,221)
VIXY long1846Nov 11, 2024Nov 13, 2024($1,869)
SVIX long2548Sep 13, 2024Nov 11, 2024$1,881
VIXY long5796Sep 12, 2024Sep 13, 2024($990)
SVIX long1786Aug 19, 2024Sep 12, 2024($9,328)
VIXY long5203Aug 15, 2024Aug 19, 2024($1,358)
SVIX long2466Aug 9, 2024Aug 15, 2024$19,920
VIXY long4692Aug 1, 2024Aug 6, 2024$16,886
SVIX long1336Jul 31, 2024Aug 1, 2024($4,788)
VIXY long4964Jul 30, 2024Jul 31, 2024($1,643)
SVIX long1659Jul 29, 2024Jul 30, 2024($1,929)
VIXY long5914Jul 24, 2024Jul 29, 2024($5,032)
SVIX long1588May 9, 2024Jul 24, 2024($3,896)
VIXY long5597May 7, 2024May 9, 2024($1,068)
SVIX long1616May 6, 2024May 7, 2024$140
VIXY long5429May 3, 2024May 6, 2024($1,797)
SVIX long1742Mar 1, 2024Mar 5, 2024($3,559)
VIXY long5322Feb 28, 2024Mar 1, 2024($1,016)
SVIX long1788Feb 26, 2024Feb 28, 2024($59)
VIXY long5293Feb 22, 2024Feb 26, 2024($3,551)
SVIX long1949Feb 21, 2024Feb 22, 2024$1,515
VIXY long5079Feb 20, 2024Feb 21, 2024($868)
SVIX long1899Feb 9, 2024Feb 13, 2024($3,784)
VIXY long5616Feb 7, 2024Feb 9, 2024$107

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.