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View Model Analyzer

Equity · Forex · Started Jan 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-13.1%
Max Drawdown
75.2%
Trades
266
Win Trades
85.0%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
31.2%

About this strategy

This is a view model analyzer that makes orders modeled after triggering in prices and momentum built up over time in the Forex markets for different trading pairs.

Trend-following Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2019-1.26.7-0.81.4-0.8-0.5-0.8-0.8-1.6-0.80.0-1.6-1.1
2020-0.8-0.8-0.80.04.72.811.3-5.4-9.5-11.2-27.1-11.8-42.9
202110.1-3.5-4.0-10.5-8.710.70.43.10.4-9.99.40.9-4.5
2022-2.9-3.6-8.79.7-4.33.4-4.27.413.0-1.0-5.45.05.9
2023-11.16.1-1.0-1.7-1.1-11.3-1.96.4-2.79.3-7.8-13.2-28.5
20246.30.0-2.02.6-1.6-1.23.3-12.9-2.011.71.79.714.0
2025-3.00.2-4.0-16.8-6.1-7.23.73.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/31/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age94 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades266
# Profitable226
% Profitable85.0%
Avg trade duration7.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown75.2%
drawdown periodAug 12, 2020 - June 28, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)-13.1%
Avg win$35
Avg loss$197

Ratios

W:L ratio0.99
Sharpe Ratio-0.47
Sortino Ratio-0.63
Calmar Ratio0.01

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.25
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life181.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-252.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-13.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-0.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity277.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss96.0%
Chance of 30% account loss64.5%
Chance of 40% account loss37.5%
Chance of 50% account loss9.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.1%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$197
Avg Win$35
# Winners226
Sum Trade PL (losers)$7,870
Sum Trade PL (winners)$7,811
Num Months Winners30
# Losers40
% Winners85.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table94

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)11159.83
Avg Position Time (hrs)186
Avg Trade Length7.80
Last Trade Ago433

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)13.16
Daily leverage (max)45.95

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta-0.35
Treynor Index0.10

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-30.84
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)4.33
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats65.76
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats85.69
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.82
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.19
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.04
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.16
df24
t0.23
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.51
Sortino ratio0.22
Upside Potential Ratio1.76
Upside part of mean0.34
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms9
N of observations25
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error23
t(b)-0.05
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.22
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.07
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.01
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.03
df24
t0.04
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.39
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.38
Sortino ratio0.04
Upside Potential Ratio1.55
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms9
N of observations25
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error23
t(b)-0.05
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.06
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.47
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.69
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean0.05
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.17
df563
t0.25
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.50
Sortino ratio0.24
Upside Potential Ratio7.11
Upside part of mean1.42
Downside part of mean-1.37
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms351
N negative terms213
N of observations564
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance-0.02
r-0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error562
t(b)-5.66
p(b)1
t(a)0.83
p(a)0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.53
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
Mean0.01
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.03
df563
t0.04
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.36
Sortino ratio0.04
Upside Potential Ratio6.85
Upside part of mean1.40
Downside part of mean-1.39
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms351
N negative terms213
N of observations564
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance-0.02
r-0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error562
t(b)-5.57
p(b)1
t(a)0.54
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.48
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.04
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.31
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.03
df130
t0.73
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.81
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.80
Sortino ratio1.51
Upside Potential Ratio8.16
Upside part of mean1.68
Downside part of mean-1.37
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms85
N negative terms46
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.44
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance-0.04
r-0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.58
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error129
t(b)-3.39
p(b)0.68
t(a)1.38
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.40
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.69
Jensen alpha (a)0.58
Mean0.27
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.88
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.88
df130
t0.62
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.65
Sortino ratio1.26
Upside Potential Ratio7.87
Upside part of mean1.66
Downside part of mean-1.39
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms85
N negative terms46
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.33
Mean of criterion0.27
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance-0.04
r-0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.51
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error129
t(b)-3.35
p(b)0.68
t(a)1.22
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.29
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.33
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.46
Jensen alpha (a)0.51
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations25
Minimum0.82
Quartile 10.97
Median1.01
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.83
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.56
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.25
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations564
Minimum0.92
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low50
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high46
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.35
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.45
Quartile 10.45
Median0.45
Quartile 30.45
Maximum0.45
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.50
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.27
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.50
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.04
Median0.05
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-1013131328
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1781
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.05
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.01
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.03
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.21
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.29
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.31
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.17
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.32

Trading record

Placed 285 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
USD/CAD long20Nov 24, 2020Aug 21, 2025$1,290
USD/MXN long20Nov 19, 2020Jan 28, 2021$9
USD/JPY long30Nov 24, 2020Jan 10, 2021$11
EUR/USD long10Dec 4, 2020Dec 16, 2020$26
EUR/AUD long10Nov 25, 2020Nov 27, 2020$4
USD/CAD long10Nov 23, 2020Nov 23, 2020$20
USD/JPY long10Nov 23, 2020Nov 23, 2020$13
CAD/CHF long30Nov 16, 2020Nov 20, 2020$29
EUR/USD long10Nov 19, 2020Nov 19, 2020$18
GBP/USD long10Nov 16, 2020Nov 17, 2020$28
USD/CAD long10Nov 16, 2020Nov 17, 2020$16
USD/MXN long20Nov 16, 2020Nov 17, 2020$110
GBP/NZD long20Sep 16, 2020Sep 16, 2020$30
AUD/NZD long20Sep 16, 2020Sep 16, 2020$3
GBP/CAD long20Sep 15, 2020Sep 16, 2020$118
AUD/CHF long10Sep 15, 2020Sep 16, 2020$14
USD/MXN long50Aug 23, 2020Aug 24, 2020$39
USD/MXN long40Aug 23, 2020Aug 23, 2020$21
USD/MXN long30Aug 12, 2020Aug 12, 2020$17
USD/CHF long10Aug 11, 2020Aug 11, 2020$12
EUR/CAD long20Aug 6, 2020Aug 6, 2020$27
USD/MXN long50Aug 5, 2020Aug 6, 2020$243
EUR/CAD long70Aug 3, 2020Aug 5, 2020$19
GBP/USD long50Aug 3, 2020Aug 4, 2020$27
USD/MXN long20Aug 3, 2020Aug 4, 2020$91
EUR/CAD long20Aug 3, 2020Aug 3, 2020$11
EUR/CHF long20Aug 2, 2020Aug 3, 2020$19
USD/MXN long20Aug 3, 2020Aug 3, 2020$102
USD/MXN long30Jul 30, 2020Jul 31, 2020$237
USD/MXN long100Jul 30, 2020Jul 30, 2020$38

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.