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Old strategy

Equity · Stocks · Started Jan 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
4.6%
Max Drawdown
22.2%
Trades
20
Win Trades
50.0%
Profit Factor
3
Win Months
4.3%

About this strategy

The old strategy only serves for consultation purposes. The strategy is deactivated.
Investors may consult the Market Posture and the Market Posture Plus. These strategies are active.

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201916.44.50.0-2.7-0.3-3.94.020.20.00.00.00.041.8
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/12/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age94 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades20
# Profitable10
% Profitable50.0%
Avg trade duration12.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown22.2%
drawdown periodJuly 18, 2019 - Aug 01, 2019
Annual Return (Compounded)4.6%
Avg win$675
Avg loss$225

Ratios

W:L ratio2.99
Sharpe Ratio0.27
Sortino Ratio0.52
Calmar Ratio1.61

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life200.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-155.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)4.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss30.0%
Chance of 20% account loss3.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$225
Avg Win$675
# Winners10
Sum Trade PL (losers)$2,254
Sum Trade PL (winners)$6,748
Num Months Winners5
# Losers10
% Winners50.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table94

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)17423.03
Avg Position Time (hrs)290.38
Avg Trade Length12.10
Last Trade Ago2613

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.07
Daily leverage (max)3.54

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index-0.70

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.10
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.54
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-3.86
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats82.90
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats6.21
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.58
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.35
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.65

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.23
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.01
df18
t1.33
p0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.64
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.60
Sortino ratio4.09
Upside Potential Ratio5.48
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms14
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.64
Mean of criterion0.23
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance-0.01
r-0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error17
t(b)-0.85
p(b)0.63
t(a)1.57
p(a)0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.76
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.55
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
Mean0.21
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.98
df18
t1.29
p0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.57
Sortino ratio3.60
Upside Potential Ratio4.98
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms14
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance-0.01
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error17
t(b)-0.81
p(b)0.62
t(a)1.51
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.69
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.50
Jensen alpha (a)0.29
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.21
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.09
df434
t1.41
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.61
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.61
Sortino ratio1.99
Upside Potential Ratio5.30
Upside part of mean0.57
Downside part of mean-0.36
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms385
N of observations435
Mean of predictor0.69
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error433
t(b)-0.42
p(b)0.66
t(a)1.45
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.53
Treynor index (mean / b)-18.68
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
Mean0.20
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.01
df434
t1.30
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.53
Sortino ratio1.76
Upside Potential Ratio5.03
Upside part of mean0.56
Downside part of mean-0.36
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms385
N of observations435
Mean of predictor0.63
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error433
t(b)-0.38
p(b)0.65
t(a)1.33
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)-19.25
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.13
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.02
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6803959951917056
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)5.51046957680937e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations19
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations435
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low45
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high50
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.51
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.60
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.06
Median0.06
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-34538.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-6.97
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.63
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.63
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-482400480
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)14
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.28
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.26
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.36
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.71
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.27
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.61
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.23
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.57
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 58 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
NUGT long400Jul 22, 2019Aug 7, 2019$1,754
NUGT long400Jul 16, 2019Jul 22, 2019$2,139
DUST long600Jun 28, 2019Jul 16, 2019($1,051)
DUST long700Jun 27, 2019Jun 28, 2019($159)
TQQQ long70Jun 10, 2019Jun 14, 2019($135)
NUGT long100Jun 6, 2019Jun 10, 2019($113)
DUST long350Apr 17, 2019Apr 22, 2019$350
NUGT long275Apr 9, 2019Apr 12, 2019($410)
NUGT long275Mar 29, 2019Apr 1, 2019($380)
SQQQ long200Mar 27, 2019Mar 28, 2019($23)
NUGT long275Mar 25, 2019Mar 27, 2019$54
NUGT long100Mar 12, 2019Mar 18, 2019($12)
URTY long30Mar 8, 2019Mar 18, 2019$165
HMY long250Jan 30, 2019Feb 25, 2019$23
NUGT long325Jan 15, 2019Feb 25, 2019$1,090
TQQQ long60Jan 30, 2019Feb 25, 2019$311
URTY long40Jan 30, 2019Feb 25, 2019$557
WTIU long130Jan 29, 2019Feb 25, 2019($8)
TQQQ long20Jan 24, 2019Jan 28, 2019($6)
URTY long80Jan 15, 2019Jan 28, 2019$261

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.