Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

FX Micro Futures

Futures · Forex · Started Jan 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
11.9%
Max Drawdown
21.7%
Trades
112
Win Trades
87.5%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
7.4%

About this strategy

Hello. My name is Michael. Experience in forex trading since 2006. Trading decisions on the system are made based on the analysis of intraday foreign exchange fees for futures from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group). Trade is carried out both on a trend and on turns. Trading in the system is carried out on such liquid currency pairs FOREX - GBPUSD; EURUSD; AUDUSD; USDJPY; USDCAD; USDCHF. Trading system is manual. Low trading activity of 5-10 trades per month. Maximum annual drawdown of 30%.

Currencies

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20194.04.33.1-3.73.43.8-2.57.3-3.0-8.34.7-4.67.3
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/7/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age95 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades112
# Profitable98
% Profitable87.5%
Avg trade duration1.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown21.7%
drawdown periodSept 25, 2019 - Dec 11, 2019
Cumul. Return11.3%
Avg win$52
Avg loss$277

Ratios

W:L ratio1.30
Sharpe Ratio-0.12
Sortino Ratio-0.15
Calmar Ratio0.37

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life189.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-13.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)11.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity16.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.9%
Percent Trades Futures0.1%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss18.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)693
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)889
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)749

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$277
Avg Win$52
# Winners98
Sum Trade PL (losers)$3,883
Sum Trade PL (winners)$5,056
Num Months Winners7
# Losers14
% Winners87.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table95

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2010.32
Avg Position Time (hrs)33.51
Avg Trade Length1.40
Last Trade Ago2518

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)4.48
Daily leverage (max)10.68

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.35

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.19
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades13.89
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.61
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats27.26
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats22.73
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.47
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.54
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.10
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.63
df10
t0.65
p0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.70
Sortino ratio1.03
Upside Potential Ratio2.70
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms4
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.01
r0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.60
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error9
t(b)1.69
p(b)0.06
t(a)-0.16
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)0.17
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
Mean0.09
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.60
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.56
df10
t0.58
p0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.62
Sortino ratio0.89
Upside Potential Ratio2.55
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms4
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.01
r0.48
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.59
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error9
t(b)1.63
p(b)0.07
t(a)-0.18
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)0.16
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.10
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.67
df240
t0.65
p0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.72
Sortino ratio0.86
Upside Potential Ratio6.13
Upside part of mean0.75
Downside part of mean-0.64
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms115
N negative terms126
N of observations241
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error239
t(b)1.59
p(b)0.06
t(a)0.46
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)0.81
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.09
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.59
df240
t0.57
p0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.63
Sortino ratio0.74
Upside Potential Ratio5.99
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.65
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms115
N negative terms126
N of observations241
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error239
t(b)1.58
p(b)0.06
t(a)0.39
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)0.71
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.14
df130
t-0.10
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.63
Sortino ratio-0.17
Upside Potential Ratio5.63
Upside part of mean0.83
Downside part of mean-0.86
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms67
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.00
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)1.24
p(b)0.43
t(a)-0.21
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.46
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.16
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean-0.04
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.23
df130
t-0.16
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.54
Sortino ratio-0.28
Upside Potential Ratio5.50
Upside part of mean0.83
Downside part of mean-0.87
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms67
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.00
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)1.24
p(b)0.43
t(a)-0.27
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.45
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.27
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations11
Minimum0.92
Quartile 10.99
Median1.03
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations241
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low26
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high26
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.83
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.41
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low16
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.79
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.33
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.05
Median0.07
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.38
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-281176512
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)77
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.25
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.25
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.60
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.72
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.67
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.60
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.62

Trading record

Placed 265 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@M6B Z9short34Nov 27, 2019Dec 12, 2019($561)
@M6A Z9short1Dec 3, 2019Dec 3, 2019$18
@BP Z9short1Dec 2, 2019Dec 2, 2019($14)
@M6B Z9short6Nov 26, 2019Nov 27, 2019$26
@M6B Z9short13Nov 22, 2019Nov 26, 2019$87
@M6B Z9short1Nov 22, 2019Nov 22, 2019$18
@M6A Z9short2Nov 15, 2019Nov 18, 2019$10
@M6A Z9short1Nov 12, 2019Nov 13, 2019$23
@M6A Z9short3Nov 8, 2019Nov 11, 2019$42
@M6A Z9short1Nov 8, 2019Nov 8, 2019$14
@M6A Z9short2Nov 7, 2019Nov 8, 2019$33
AUD/USD short20Nov 6, 2019Nov 6, 2019$0
AUD/USD short100Nov 4, 2019Nov 6, 2019$0
AUD/USD short100Nov 1, 2019Nov 4, 2019$130
USD/CAD long50Oct 30, 2019Oct 30, 2019$130
USD/CAD long80Oct 23, 2019Oct 29, 2019$0
USD/CHF long10Oct 21, 2019Oct 21, 2019$16
GBP/USD short140Oct 11, 2019Oct 15, 2019($989)
USD/CAD short50Oct 4, 2019Oct 7, 2019($44)
USD/CAD short60Oct 3, 2019Oct 4, 2019$82
GBP/USD long160Sep 25, 2019Oct 1, 2019($982)
EUR/USD long10Sep 24, 2019Sep 24, 2019$18
EUR/USD long30Sep 23, 2019Sep 23, 2019$29
USD/JPY short40Sep 22, 2019Sep 23, 2019$44
USD/JPY short150Sep 12, 2019Sep 20, 2019$130
USD/JPY short50Sep 12, 2019Sep 12, 2019$4
EUR/USD long60Sep 12, 2019Sep 12, 2019$70
GBP/USD short230Sep 4, 2019Sep 12, 2019$10
EUR/USD long40Sep 11, 2019Sep 12, 2019$54
GBP/USD short20Sep 2, 2019Sep 2, 2019$32

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.