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Software Stars

Equity · Stocks · Started Jan 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
18.8%
Max Drawdown
90.9%
Trades
163
Win Trades
36.8%
Profit Factor
2.60
Win Months
53.3%

About this strategy

In a recent business book, a systematic review of data across industries showed that software was by far the best business industry to be in. This has to do with both minimal costs of scaling out to new users, along with network effects (example: a new user for Facebook is cheap to add vs. no matter how much Nike does, another pair of shoes still has many costs to produce).
As a result, many of the stock markets biggest winners have been software based (think Microsoft, Google, Adobe, etc). Software stars looks for new up and comers that are software based and stars in their respective domains, and are fast growing with the potential to ride the growth of their specific sector as the long terrm winner in that domain. The result is to go for the ride with these stars and hopefully benefit financially from investing in these software stars.

Sector: Technology

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201928.919.1-20.4-5.3-19.19.112.2-9.4-24.0-1.920.1-4.4-11.1
202014.4-9.2-20.142.134.429.120.67.1-10.08.640.35.3281.4
20211.06.8-26.011.8-15.331.7-2.43.31.71.77.51.313.2
2022-35.016.3-6.6-22.1-20.8-4.2-0.525.8-13.4-8.9-6.9-9.9-65.4
202322.14.30.7-0.116.715.311.6-1.7-9.1-8.614.414.3105.7
2024-1.415.8-0.4-5.810.9-4.91.314.7-4.720.210.43.672.2
20250.5-33.4-21.3-14.960.8-7.530.1-9.70.01.70.0
2026-2.910.7-23.00.0-2.30.114.410.9-5.5

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/4/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age95 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades163
# Profitable60
% Profitable36.8%
Avg trade duration135.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown90.9%
drawdown periodJune 16, 2021 - April 20, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)18.8%
Avg win$3,870
Avg loss$882

Ratios

W:L ratio2.60
Sharpe Ratio0.41
Sortino Ratio1.29
Calmar Ratio2.06

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.21
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life197.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)81.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)18.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)19.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity242.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss73.5%
Chance of 20% account loss49.0%
Chance of 30% account loss17.0%
Chance of 40% account loss3.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$882
Avg Win$3,870
# Winners60
Sum Trade PL (losers)$90,795
Sum Trade PL (winners)$232,226
Num Months Winners49
# Losers103
% Winners36.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct3518

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table94

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)195505.05
Avg Position Time (hrs)3258.42
Avg Trade Length135.80
Last Trade Ago2685

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.42
Daily leverage (max)1.94

Regression

Alpha0.15
Beta1.90
Treynor Index0.12

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.01
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.55
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats19.10
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.14
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.15
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.25
Hold-and-Hope Ratio1.53

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.64
SD1.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.14
df14
t1.35
p0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.95
Sortino ratio3.38
Upside Potential Ratio5.17
Upside part of mean2.51
Downside part of mean-0.87
Upside SD1.31
Downside SD0.48
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms6
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.95
Mean of criterion1.64
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion1.36
Covariance0.19
r0.39
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.46
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.25
Mean Square Error1.68
DF error13
t(b)1.52
p(b)0.26
t(a)0.17
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.44
Treynor index (mean / b)1.12
Jensen alpha (a)0.25
Mean0.93
SD1.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.83
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.79
df14
t0.93
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.56
Sortino ratio1.59
Upside Potential Ratio3.33
Upside part of mean1.95
Downside part of mean-1.02
Upside SD0.95
Downside SD0.59
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms6
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.87
Mean of criterion0.93
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion1.12
Covariance0.18
r0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.51
Mean Square Error1.03
DF error13
t(b)2.02
p(b)0.20
t(a)-0.44
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.99
Treynor index (mean / b)0.56
Jensen alpha (a)-0.51
VaR(95%)0.37
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.44
VaR(95%)0.15
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.29
Mean5.04
SD4.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.25
df334
t1.42
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.99
Sortino ratio3.98
Upside Potential Ratio10.18
Upside part of mean12.92
Downside part of mean-7.88
Upside SD3.82
Downside SD1.27
N nonnegative terms186
N negative terms149
N of observations335
Mean of predictor0.97
Mean of criterion5.04
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion4.02
Covariance0.41
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.98
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)3.12
Mean Square Error15.39
DF error333
t(b)4.19
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.89
p(a)0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha10.00
Treynor index (mean / b)2.55
Jensen alpha (a)3.12
Mean1.05
SD2.63
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.40
df334
t0.45
p0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.13
Sortino ratio0.58
Upside Potential Ratio5.58
Upside part of mean10.20
Downside part of mean-9.15
Upside SD1.89
Downside SD1.83
N nonnegative terms186
N negative terms149
N of observations335
Mean of predictor0.87
Mean of criterion1.05
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion2.63
Covariance0.40
r0.34
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.99
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.68
Mean Square Error6.14
DF error333
t(b)6.55
p(b)0
t(a)-0.31
p(a)0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.66
Treynor index (mean / b)0.53
Jensen alpha (a)-0.68
VaR(95%)0.23
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.28
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean9.37
SD6.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.51
df130
t1.07
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.29
Sortino ratio5.53
Upside Potential Ratio12.39
Upside part of mean20.98
Downside part of mean-11.62
Upside SD5.93
Downside SD1.69
N nonnegative terms69
N negative terms62
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.33
Mean of criterion9.37
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion6.17
Covariance0.45
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.99
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)6.71
Mean Square Error37.41
DF error129
t(b)1.76
p(b)0.40
t(a)0.76
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-10.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha24.08
Treynor index (mean / b)4.70
Jensen alpha (a)6.71
Mean0.80
SD3.80
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.21
df130
t0.15
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.98
Sortino ratio0.31
Upside Potential Ratio5.71
Upside part of mean14.91
Downside part of mean-14.10
Upside SD2.74
Downside SD2.61
N nonnegative terms69
N negative terms62
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.22
Mean of criterion0.80
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion3.80
Covariance0.46
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.74
Mean Square Error13.56
DF error129
t(b)3.05
p(b)0.34
t(a)-0.33
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.74
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-12.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha8.69
Treynor index (mean / b)0.38
Jensen alpha (a)-1.74
VaR(95%)0.32
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.38
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations15
Minimum0.62
Quartile 10.91
Median1.08
Quartile 31.24
Maximum1.96
Mean of quarter 10.76
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.16
Mean of quarter 41.64
Inter Quartile Range0.33
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.96
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-12.31
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.20
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.41
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.44
Number of observations335
Minimum0.23
Quartile 10.97
Median1.00
Quartile 31.04
Maximum4.99
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.18
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low20
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.76
Number of outliers high23
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.43
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.34
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.18
Number of observations131
Minimum0.23
Quartile 10.94
Median1
Quartile 31.07
Maximum4.99
Mean of quarter 10.85
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.29
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.54
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high2.41
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.30
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.25
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.42
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.27

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.31
Quartile 10.37
Median0.44
Quartile 30.50
Maximum0.56
Mean of quarter 10.31
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.56
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.07
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.91
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.14
Mean of quarter 40.69
Inter Quartile Range0.19
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.82
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-5.24
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.49
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.49
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.05
Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.23
Median0.45
Quartile 30.68
Maximum0.91
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.91
Inter Quartile Range0.45
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-1032566912
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)308
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.77
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.54
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.74
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.74
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.48
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)2.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.87
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.06
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.72
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.65
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.99
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.24
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.36
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.36
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.26

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
CYBR long150May 2, 2019Jun 11, 2019$327
MTCH long300May 8, 2019May 17, 2019$995
TTD long100May 16, 2019May 17, 2019($1,023)
TTD long300Apr 10, 2019May 9, 2019($9,244)
ENPH long1000May 3, 2019May 6, 2019($215)
IQ long1000Apr 9, 2019Apr 24, 2019($648)
FTNT long100Apr 12, 2019Apr 17, 2019($69)
TWLO long100Apr 10, 2019Apr 17, 2019($214)
ZS long100Apr 10, 2019Apr 17, 2019($516)
COUP long200Apr 9, 2019Apr 17, 2019($768)
SQQQ long500Apr 4, 2019Apr 5, 2019($100)
MOMO long250Apr 1, 2019Apr 4, 2019($83)
IQ long1000Mar 29, 2019Apr 4, 2019($215)
TTD long50Apr 3, 2019Apr 4, 2019($696)
HUYA long2000Mar 28, 2019Apr 3, 2019($308)
TTD long100Mar 28, 2019Apr 3, 2019$1,505
SQQQ long1000Mar 27, 2019Mar 28, 2019($135)
HUYA long500Mar 26, 2019Mar 27, 2019($210)
IQ long1200Mar 26, 2019Mar 27, 2019($389)
ZS long500Mar 26, 2019Mar 27, 2019($650)
LPSN long200Mar 26, 2019Mar 27, 2019($108)
STNE long300Mar 26, 2019Mar 26, 2019($258)
IQ long1000Mar 26, 2019Mar 26, 2019($1,055)
UVXY long500Mar 25, 2019Mar 25, 2019($485)
SQQQ long2000Mar 25, 2019Mar 25, 2019($385)
SQQQ long2000Mar 25, 2019Mar 25, 2019($45)
IQ long2000Mar 22, 2019Mar 25, 2019($3,158)
SQQQ long1000Mar 22, 2019Mar 22, 2019$115
PAGS long200Mar 21, 2019Mar 22, 2019($186)
COUP long100Mar 21, 2019Mar 22, 2019($376)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.