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SwingOptionTraders

Options · Options · Started Dec 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-18.5%
Max Drawdown
91.3%
Trades
36
Win Trades
41.7%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
0.0%

About this strategy

-The System is based on moving averages and support/resistance levels. It takes the opportunity based on daily charts.
-The system trades TQQQ, IWM, VXX options mostly.Also it trades high volume ETF and Stocks.
-The number of signals are 4/5 per months only but again based on market conditions.
The system can be useful for brokerage, IRA and HSA accounts for slow steady growth.

Please note that While no system can guarantee risk-free or low-risk trading/profit, and
while unforeseen events can cause you to lose all your money, we do make an effort to control risk.
The system is just for information purpose only and the user is solely responsible for how it is used.

Covered Calls Directional Bets

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2018-1.8-1.8
2019-14.7-76.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-79.5
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/18/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age95 months
What it tradesOptions
# Trades36
# Profitable15
% Profitable41.7%
Avg trade duration2.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown91.3%
drawdown periodJan 18, 2019 - Feb 09, 2019
Annual Return (Compounded)-18.5%
Avg win$1,712
Avg loss$1,489

Ratios

W:L ratio0.82
Sharpe Ratio-0.09
Sortino Ratio-0.15
Calmar Ratio-0.67

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life201.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-280.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-18.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-9.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity1053.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options1.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss91.0%
Chance of 40% account loss72.5%
Chance of 50% account loss62.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)47.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)23.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)3.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,489
Avg Win$1,712
# Winners15
Sum Trade PL (losers)$31,273
Sum Trade PL (winners)$25,683
Num Months Winners1
# Losers21
% Winners41.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table95

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3448.65
Avg Position Time (hrs)57.48
Avg Trade Length2.40
Last Trade Ago2812

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta0.05
Treynor Index-0.37

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.17
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.21
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.12
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-8.28
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.37
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats53.80
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats26.03
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.52
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.06
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.51
SD1.64
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.29
df11
t0.31
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.25
Sortino ratio0.62
Upside Potential Ratio1.65
Upside part of mean1.35
Downside part of mean-0.84
Upside SD1.35
Downside SD0.81
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms11
N of observations12
Mean of predictor1.17
Mean of criterion0.51
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion1.64
Covariance-0.05
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.90
Mean Square Error2.93
DF error10
t(b)-0.26
p(b)0.60
t(a)0.39
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha5.97
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.53
Jensen alpha (a)0.90
Mean-0.85
SD1.95
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.44
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.40
df11
t-0.44
p0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.56
Sortino ratio-0.51
Upside Potential Ratio0.51
Upside part of mean0.85
Downside part of mean-1.70
Upside SD0.85
Downside SD1.67
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms11
N of observations12
Mean of predictor1.05
Mean of criterion-0.85
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion1.95
Covariance-0.01
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.78
Mean Square Error4.16
DF error10
t(b)-0.04
p(b)0.51
t(a)-0.29
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha5.19
Treynor index (mean / b)13.68
Jensen alpha (a)-0.78
VaR(95%)0.63
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.70
VaR(95%)0.23
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.49
Mean0.13
SD1.47
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.09
df270
t0.09
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.01
Sortino ratio0.15
Upside Potential Ratio3.35
Upside part of mean2.77
Downside part of mean-2.65
Upside SD1.21
Downside SD0.83
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms258
N of observations271
Mean of predictor1.14
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion1.47
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error2.16
DF error269
t(b)0.11
p(b)0.46
t(a)0.07
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.98
Treynor index (mean / b)5.65
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean-0.82
SD1.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.60
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.60
df270
t-0.61
p0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.33
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.33
Sortino ratio-0.80
Upside Potential Ratio2.23
Upside part of mean2.28
Downside part of mean-3.10
Upside SD0.90
Downside SD1.02
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms258
N of observations271
Mean of predictor1.04
Mean of criterion-0.82
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion1.36
Covariance0.01
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.88
Mean Square Error1.87
DF error269
t(b)0.31
p(b)0.38
t(a)-0.65
p(a)0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.79
Treynor index (mean / b)-14.03
Jensen alpha (a)-0.88
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.06
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.95
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6812700210364416
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.14709825834944e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations12
Minimum0.19
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.35
Mean of quarter 10.73
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.45
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.19
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high2.35
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations271
Minimum0.56
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.01
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low23
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.81
Quartile 10.81
Median0.81
Quartile 30.81
Maximum0.81
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.15
Quartile 30.44
Maximum0.81
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.27
Mean of quarter 40.66
Inter Quartile Range0.43
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-417291136
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)22
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.56
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.56
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.69
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.80
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.54
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.55
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.67
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.83
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.38
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
XLV1908B91 long50Jan 25, 2019Feb 9, 2019($1,835)
VZ1908B58 long210Jan 28, 2019Feb 9, 2019($1,477)
V1901B141 long204Jan 30, 2019Feb 2, 2019($3,605)
XLE1901B63.5 long140Jan 22, 2019Jan 31, 2019$224
VXXB1908B42 long30Jan 28, 2019Jan 30, 2019($2,892)
AKS1901B3 long42Jan 28, 2019Jan 29, 2019($269)
AAPL1925A160 long320Jan 16, 2019Jan 26, 2019($9,019)
AAPL1918A157.5 long50Jan 17, 2019Jan 18, 2019$630
IWM1918A145 long25Jan 16, 2019Jan 17, 2019($60)
IWM1918A144.5 long30Jan 14, 2019Jan 16, 2019$1,003
QQQ1918A162.5 long60Jan 11, 2019Jan 15, 2019$4,056
AMD1918A21 long40Jan 10, 2019Jan 14, 2019$424
QQQ1911A161.5 long40Jan 9, 2019Jan 11, 2019($2,711)
AMD1911A20 long30Jan 10, 2019Jan 11, 2019$298
QQQ1918M147 long15Jan 4, 2019Jan 9, 2019($911)
QQQ1911M155 long20Jan 4, 2019Jan 9, 2019($2,673)
QQQ1904A150 long20Jan 3, 2019Jan 4, 2019$7,392
QQQ1904M151.5 long20Jan 3, 2019Jan 3, 2019$352
QQQ1911M151.5 long8Jan 3, 2019Jan 3, 2019($162)
QQQ1911M152 long28Jan 2, 2019Jan 3, 2019$3,045
QQQ1904M153 long31Jan 2, 2019Jan 3, 2019$2,389
QQQ1831X153 long80Dec 31, 2018Jan 1, 2019($3,211)
QQQ1831L153 long5Dec 31, 2018Dec 31, 2018($47)
TQQQ1828L37.5 long20Dec 28, 2018Dec 29, 2018($914)
MU1828L32 long180Dec 28, 2018Dec 29, 2018($1,456)
QQQ1828L149 long10Dec 27, 2018Dec 28, 2018$3,106
QQQ1828X148.5 long10Dec 27, 2018Dec 27, 2018($44)
QQQ1828X148 long5Dec 27, 2018Dec 27, 2018($42)
QQQ1828X148 long5Dec 27, 2018Dec 27, 2018($17)
QQQ1831L153 long5Dec 27, 2018Dec 27, 2018($87)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.