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SPY Options

Equity · Options · Started Nov 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
18.4%
Max Drawdown
98.6%
Trades
15
Win Trades
73.3%
Profit Factor
2.20
Win Months
17.7%

Event-driven Pairs Trading / Relative Value

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2018-0.7-15.7-16.3
201941.72.30.72.4-0.6-0.60.0-1.2-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.642.5
2020-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.7-0.7-7.3
2021-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.7-12.882.34.5-0.4-98.1-96.9
20227086.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.321.9-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.30.08449.5
2023-0.5-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.50.0-0.5-0.30.0-3.3
2024-0.3-0.50.0-0.50.0-0.5-0.3-0.3-0.3-1.2-21.4-0.4-24.6
2025-0.3-35.5-89.8-63.1883.6183.018.549.840.066.1-7.314.4195.7
2026-8.98.3-50.525.7-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.20.0-39.2

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/23/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age96 months
C2 Rank16
What it tradesOptions
# Trades15
# Profitable11
% Profitable73.3%
Avg trade duration45.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown98.5%
drawdown periodAug 01, 2022 - March 31, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)18.4%
Avg win$13,615
Avg loss$18,417

Ratios

W:L ratio2.19
Sharpe Ratio0.37
Sortino Ratio5.13
Calmar Ratio0.89

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life196.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)82.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)18.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)21.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity64.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.8%
Short Options - Percent Covered0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.2%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss32.5%
Chance of 20% account loss3.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)575
C2 Score16
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$18,417
Avg Win$13,615
# Winners11
Sum Trade PL (losers)$73,669
Sum Trade PL (winners)$149,769
Num Months Winners17
# Losers4
% Winners73.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct11510

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table96

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)64951.38
Avg Position Time (hrs)1082.52
Avg Trade Length45.10
Last Trade Ago187

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)40.31
Daily leverage (max)1079.95

Regression

Alpha1.09
Beta2.11
Treynor Index0.55

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades1.86
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat22.09
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades5.59
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.21
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-6.20
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.85
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats31.19
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.93
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.97
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.16

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.04
SD1.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.91
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.88
df32
t1.50
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.09
Sortino ratio2.46
Upside Potential Ratio3.49
Upside part of mean1.48
Downside part of mean-0.44
Upside SD1.10
Downside SD0.42
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms21
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion1.04
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion1.15
Covariance0.05
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.58
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.81
Mean Square Error1.34
DF error31
t(b)0.79
p(b)0.22
t(a)1.07
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.36
Treynor index (mean / b)1.79
Jensen alpha (a)0.81
Mean0.52
SD0.99
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.51
df32
t0.87
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.70
Sortino ratio0.84
Upside Potential Ratio1.78
Upside part of mean1.10
Downside part of mean-0.58
Upside SD0.77
Downside SD0.62
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms21
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.52
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.99
Covariance0.04
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.58
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.99
DF error31
t(b)0.90
p(b)0.19
t(a)0.48
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.62
Treynor index (mean / b)0.89
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
VaR(95%)0.35
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.42
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.21
Mean1.33
SD1.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.98
df729
t1.65
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.16
Sortino ratio1.95
Upside Potential Ratio4.89
Upside part of mean3.35
Downside part of mean-2.01
Upside SD1.17
Downside SD0.68
N nonnegative terms115
N negative terms615
N of observations730
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion1.33
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion1.35
Covariance0.05
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.58
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.10
Mean Square Error1.81
DF error728
t(b)3.42
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.36
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.69
Treynor index (mean / b)2.32
Jensen alpha (a)1.10
Mean0.51
SD1.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.40
df729
t0.67
p0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.77
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.57
Sortino ratio0.58
Upside Potential Ratio3.21
Upside part of mean2.85
Downside part of mean-2.34
Upside SD0.92
Downside SD0.89
N nonnegative terms115
N negative terms615
N of observations730
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.51
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion1.28
Covariance0.06
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
Mean Square Error1.60
DF error728
t(b)4.02
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.38
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.78
Treynor index (mean / b)0.82
Jensen alpha (a)0.29
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean2.63
SD1.99
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.33
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.32
df130
t0.94
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.09
Sortino ratio2.23
Upside Potential Ratio7.37
Upside part of mean8.70
Downside part of mean-6.07
Upside SD1.60
Downside SD1.18
N nonnegative terms30
N negative terms101
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.69
Mean of criterion2.63
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion1.99
Covariance0.36
r0.69
b (slope, estimate of beta)5.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.91
Mean Square Error2.09
DF error129
t(b)10.79
p(b)0.10
t(a)-0.44
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta6.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.51
Jensen alpha (a)-0.91
Mean0.62
SD2.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.30
df130
t0.21
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.07
Sortino ratio0.40
Upside Potential Ratio4.96
Upside part of mean7.68
Downside part of mean-7.06
Upside SD1.36
Downside SD1.55
N nonnegative terms30
N negative terms101
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.65
Mean of criterion0.62
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion2.07
Covariance0.40
r0.72
b (slope, estimate of beta)5.53
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.00
Mean Square Error2.10
DF error129
t(b)11.65
p(b)0.09
t(a)-1.45
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.59
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta6.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-7.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.10
Treynor index (mean / b)0.11
Jensen alpha (a)-3.00
VaR(95%)0.19
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.23
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations33
Minimum0.38
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum2.12
Mean of quarter 10.87
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.50
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.71
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.56
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.30
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.56
Number of observations730
Minimum0.43
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.13
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low98
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high115
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.80
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum0.43
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.56
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.13
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low27
Percentage of outliers low0.21
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high28
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.66
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.19
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.33
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.15

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.10
Quartile 10.18
Median0.26
Quartile 30.47
Maximum0.69
Mean of quarter 10.10
Mean of quarter 20.26
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.69
Inter Quartile Range0.29
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations18
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.80
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.10
Mean of quarter 40.48
Inter Quartile Range0.21
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.72
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.76
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.49
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.51
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.56
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.72
Number of observations3
Minimum0.36
Quartile 10.37
Median0.38
Quartile 30.59
Maximum0.80
Mean of quarter 10.36
Mean of quarter 20.38
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.80
Inter Quartile Range0.22
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-432285920
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)973
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.27
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.73
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.06
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.06
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.74
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.72
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.89
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.49
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.83
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.76
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.90
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.12
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.12
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.95

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SPY long2000Aug 16, 2025Apr 7, 2026$93,295
SPY2515H610 long20Feb 7, 2025Aug 16, 2025($58,694)
SPY2429W574 long12Oct 31, 2024Nov 30, 2024($14,876)
SPY2219T411 long35Jun 7, 2022Jun 9, 2022$13,356
SPY long100Jun 7, 2022Jun 7, 2022($3)
SPY2218N478 long40Dec 29, 2021Jan 6, 2022$17,744
SPY2218B476 long40Dec 29, 2021Dec 29, 2021($176)
SPY2131L445 long20Oct 18, 2021Oct 18, 2021$2,052
SPY2119W446 long30Aug 20, 2021Sep 28, 2021$1,838
SPY2119W444 short30Aug 23, 2021Sep 7, 2021$8,688
SPY2115J444 long20Aug 12, 2021Aug 20, 2021$152
SPY2115J440 long15Aug 19, 2021Aug 20, 2021$819
SPY2115V448 long10Aug 13, 2021Aug 19, 2021$4,416
SPY long100Dec 6, 2018Apr 16, 2019$2,442
SPY1911A251 long20Dec 28, 2018Jan 9, 2019$4,652

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.