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Futures Trading

Futures · Futures · Started Oct 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.5%
Max Drawdown
14.9%
Trades
178
Win Trades
48.3%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
11.2%

About this strategy

good day,a bit about strategy:
The strategy is completely manual.I trade solely on the basis of price and volume, inputs are based on the allocation of zones (side market) in which in my opinion locked positions of traders and the market will not return there in other words, according to certain criteria such as time, volume, speed and other allocate these zones. When there is such a zone, I enter the deal (there is a little difference whether I enter the trend or against the trend, the difference in the goals and behavior of the price, the entry pattern is the same everywhere). Stop loss is always at 1-2-2. 5 % I do not like to risk. As for the exit position, for me there are several stages 1 is the accumulation of position, provocation, etc. 2 this movement to the unloading position, the unloading is the same in several cases that the outputs of the volume, update the local borders (again, it all depends on we traded with the trend or against). I am convinced that the balance of the market is constantly changing and whatever the purpose they depend on the behavior of the price at certain levels. I do not use martingale in strategy. If You have any more questions I will be happy to answer.

Trend-following Currencies

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20187.2-3.73.46.7
2019-1.6-1.24.02.9-4.45.03.41.57.8-6.0-4.00.06.4
2020-1.64.87.8-5.06.2-4.30.00.00.00.00.00.07.3
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/28/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age98 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades178
# Profitable86
% Profitable48.3%
Avg trade duration1.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown14.9%
drawdown periodOct 04, 2019 - Dec 23, 2019
Annual Return (Compounded)2.5%
Avg win$736
Avg loss$512

Ratios

W:L ratio1.34
Sharpe Ratio0.10
Sortino Ratio0.16
Calmar Ratio0.91

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life182.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-161.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity7.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss5.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$512
Avg Win$736
# Winners86
Sum Trade PL (losers)$47,137
Sum Trade PL (winners)$63,315
Num Months Winners12
# Losers92
% Winners48.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table98

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2396.72
Avg Position Time (hrs)39.94
Avg Trade Length1.70
Last Trade Ago2339

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.91
Daily leverage (max)14.89

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0
Treynor Index0.51

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades7.44
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.48
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats14.56
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats36.80
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.54
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.08
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.13

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.12
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.02
df30
t1.68
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.26
Sortino ratio2.06
Upside Potential Ratio3.44
Upside part of mean0.19
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms24
N negative terms7
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.01
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error29
t(b)-1.06
p(b)0.85
t(a)1.97
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.55
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean0.11
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.97
df30
t1.60
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.22
Sortino ratio1.90
Upside Potential Ratio3.28
Upside part of mean0.19
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms24
N negative terms7
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.01
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error29
t(b)-1.04
p(b)0.85
t(a)1.89
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.47
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.11
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.07
df680
t1.72
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.29
Sortino ratio1.78
Upside Potential Ratio7.68
Upside part of mean0.49
Downside part of mean-0.38
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms511
N negative terms170
N of observations681
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error679
t(b)0.28
p(b)0.39
t(a)1.69
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)33.06
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.11
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.02
df680
t1.65
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.24
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.24
Sortino ratio1.68
Upside Potential Ratio7.56
Upside part of mean0.49
Downside part of mean-0.38
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms511
N negative terms170
N of observations681
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error679
t(b)0.27
p(b)0.39
t(a)1.62
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)32.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.48
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.38
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations31
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations681
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low159
Percentage of outliers low0.23
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high159
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.49
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.02
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations20
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.27
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.80
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.23
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-403903360
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)80
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.28
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.28
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.12
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.91
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.59
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.78
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 27 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@EU U0short2Jun 15, 2020Jun 15, 2020($316)
@CD U0short2Jun 15, 2020Jun 15, 2020($386)
@S N0short2Jun 10, 2020Jun 12, 2020($766)
@JY M0short2Jun 11, 2020Jun 11, 2020($541)
QCL N0short1Jun 10, 2020Jun 10, 2020($488)
@JY M0long2Jun 7, 2020Jun 8, 2020$1,778
QSI N0long1Jun 4, 2020Jun 5, 2020$42
QSI N0long1Jun 4, 2020Jun 4, 2020($8)
QSI N0long1Jun 4, 2020Jun 4, 2020($83)
@S N0short2Jun 2, 2020Jun 3, 2020($666)
@EU M0short2Jun 2, 2020Jun 2, 2020($229)
@AD M0short2Jun 2, 2020Jun 2, 2020($316)
@JY M0long2May 31, 2020Jun 2, 2020($779)
QCL N0short1May 28, 2020May 29, 2020$242
@SF M0short2May 26, 2020May 28, 2020$472
@CD M0short2May 19, 2020May 26, 2020$274
@AD M0short2May 21, 2020May 26, 2020$174
@S N0short1May 21, 2020May 25, 2020$92
QCL N0short1May 22, 2020May 22, 2020($298)
@S N0short2May 20, 2020May 21, 2020($66)
QNG M0short2May 19, 2020May 19, 2020($536)
QNG M0short2May 19, 2020May 19, 2020($896)
@S N0short2May 15, 2020May 17, 2020($191)
@CD M0long3May 14, 2020May 15, 2020$701
@S K0short2May 14, 2020May 14, 2020($41)
@S K0short2May 11, 2020May 14, 2020$1,459
@CD M0short3May 12, 2020May 14, 2020$996
QCL M0short1May 12, 2020May 13, 2020($668)
QCL M0short2May 11, 2020May 12, 2020$294
@CD M0short2May 11, 2020May 12, 2020$169

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.