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Steadfast Market Adapter

Equity · Stocks · Started Aug 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
7.3%
Max Drawdown
33.2%
Trades
140
Win Trades
49.3%
Profit Factor
4
Win Months
45.5%

About this strategy

System uses mostly leveraged and non-leveraged ETFs and at times Closed End Funds. The system uses proprietary technical signals based on momentum and other criteria. System will use these signals in the discretionary context of overall market conditions and ADAPT as needed, Technical set ups at times don't work and lose market correlation, system will then seek to ADAPT as needed to avoid large draw-downs. System strives for sensible money management and risk control. Stops will be used for the more liquid leveraged ETFs.

Trend-following Sector Rotation

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20180.6-0.9-0.70.03.22.1
20191.91.13.10.4-3.00.12.9-2.55.01.7-0.43.814.7
20201.4-2.25.14.54.72.83.03.7-4.30.114.91.940.4
20211.56.60.83.61.9-3.2-0.01.3-1.80.3-3.5-13.0-6.7
20220.5-3.7-4.61.9-0.2-10.17.11.4-11.60.38.6-3.8-15.2
20231.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.01.5
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.053.40.50.20.10.355.0
2026-0.20.6-0.80.20.10.0-0.40.2-1.00.60.0-0.6

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/5/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age101 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades140
# Profitable69
% Profitable49.3%
Avg trade duration50.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown33.2%
drawdown periodJune 01, 2021 - Oct 03, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)7.3%
Avg win$920
Avg loss$277

Ratios

W:L ratio3.96
Sharpe Ratio0.33
Sortino Ratio0.75
Calmar Ratio1.18

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.25
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life166.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)2.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)7.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)9.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity1.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated1.4%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$277
Avg Win$920
# Winners69
Sum Trade PL (losers)$19,661
Sum Trade PL (winners)$63,505
Num Months Winners47
# Losers71
% Winners49.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct14271

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table99

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)72399.37
Avg Position Time (hrs)1206.66
Avg Trade Length50.30
Last Trade Ago1403

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.04
Daily leverage (max)2.33

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.29
Treynor Index0.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0.85
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.35
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats10.27
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats13.61
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.19
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.24
Hold-and-Hope Ratio1.17

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.20
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.64
df23
t0.93
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.04
Sortino ratio1.08
Upside Potential Ratio2.15
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms7
N of observations24
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.08
r0.79
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.73
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error22
t(b)6.07
p(b)0
t(a)0.46
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)0.27
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.15
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.49
df23
t0.72
p0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.88
Sortino ratio0.73
Upside Potential Ratio1.77
Upside part of mean0.37
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms7
N of observations24
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.08
r0.76
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.69
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error22
t(b)5.50
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.44
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.95
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)0.22
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.18
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.66
df541
t0.95
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.02
Sortino ratio0.94
Upside Potential Ratio5.40
Upside part of mean1.01
Downside part of mean-0.83
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms224
N negative terms318
N of observations542
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.05
r0.54
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.45
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error540
t(b)14.74
p(b)0
t(a)0.65
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41
Treynor index (mean / b)0.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0.14
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.52
df541
t0.75
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.88
Sortino ratio0.71
Upside Potential Ratio5.06
Upside part of mean0.99
Downside part of mean-0.85
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms224
N negative terms318
N of observations542
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.05
r0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.44
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error540
t(b)14.22
p(b)0
t(a)0.56
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40
Treynor index (mean / b)0.32
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.33
SD0.47
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.69
df130
t0.49
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.47
Sortino ratio0.97
Upside Potential Ratio7.20
Upside part of mean2.46
Downside part of mean-2.13
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.34
N nonnegative terms65
N negative terms66
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.80
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0.47
Covariance0.14
r0.65
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.70
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.23
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error129
t(b)9.73
p(b)0.12
t(a)-0.44
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.79
Treynor index (mean / b)0.47
Jensen alpha (a)-0.23
Mean0.22
SD0.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.45
df130
t0.32
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.22
Sortino ratio0.60
Upside Potential Ratio6.70
Upside part of mean2.41
Downside part of mean-2.19
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.36
N nonnegative terms65
N negative terms66
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.70
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0.48
Covariance0.13
r0.63
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.69
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.26
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error129
t(b)9.24
p(b)0.13
t(a)-0.49
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.54
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.79
Treynor index (mean / b)0.32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.26
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations24
Minimum0.76
Quartile 11.00
Median1.01
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.25
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.84
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.53
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations542
Minimum0.85
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low41
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high58
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.89
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.88
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations131
Minimum0.85
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.71
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.80
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.06
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.26
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations27
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.21
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations8
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.32
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-313848416
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)489
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.77
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.77
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.29
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.20
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.57
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.61
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.50
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.28
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.86
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.39
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.74

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
CSQ long1000Mar 20, 2020Jan 4, 2023$5,105
DPG long1000Mar 20, 2020Jan 4, 2023$5,947
JETS long800Mar 20, 2020Jan 4, 2023$3,991
NMZ long900Mar 19, 2020Jan 4, 2023$59
BTAL long600Mar 11, 2020Mar 19, 2020$73
VXX long250Mar 13, 2020Mar 13, 2020$653
IAU long1000Mar 11, 2020Mar 12, 2020($555)
UPRO long500Mar 11, 2020Mar 12, 2020($4,170)
KBE long200Feb 20, 2020Feb 24, 2020($394)
TBF long1000Feb 18, 2020Feb 21, 2020($355)
UPRO long370Feb 18, 2020Feb 20, 2020($118)
FXY long200Feb 5, 2020Feb 18, 2020($46)
SDS long400Feb 5, 2020Feb 11, 2020($272)
UPRO long413Jan 31, 2020Jan 31, 2020($830)
SWAN long685Jan 7, 2020Jan 21, 2020$255
NTSX long660Jan 8, 2020Jan 21, 2020$398
FV long600Jan 17, 2020Jan 21, 2020($17)
UPRO long280Jan 7, 2020Jan 16, 2020$1,162
FXY long227Jan 7, 2020Jan 8, 2020($59)
FXY long230Dec 20, 2019Dec 31, 2019$115
EDV short150Dec 31, 2019Dec 31, 2019($12)
EDV long150Dec 27, 2019Dec 31, 2019($420)
AOR long415Dec 20, 2019Dec 27, 2019($91)
FTLS long465Dec 20, 2019Dec 24, 2019($28)
UPRO long450Dec 4, 2019Dec 17, 2019$2,160
WIZ long100Dec 17, 2019Dec 17, 2019($6)
WIZ long1100Dec 4, 2019Dec 17, 2019$424
BTAL long1700Nov 26, 2019Dec 2, 2019($107)
BTAL long1750Nov 13, 2019Nov 15, 2019($75)
RPV long850Nov 5, 2019Nov 12, 2019$475

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.