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Profit Code

Futures · Started Jun 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
46
Win Trades
82.6%
Profit Factor
0.40
Win Months
2.0%

About this strategy

100% Discretionary method.
Day and swing trading.
Variety of markets traded.
Mental stops.
Up to 3 contracts.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201853.5-56.8-24.956.3-54.7-160.80.0-121.5
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/10/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age101 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades46
# Profitable38
% Profitable82.6%
Avg trade duration3.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodNov 08, 2018 - Nov 15, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$173
Avg loss$2,081

Ratios

W:L ratio0.39
Sharpe Ratio-1.86
Sortino Ratio-1.97
Calmar Ratio-1.00

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.17
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life181.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-300.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity—
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss89.0%
Chance of 50% account loss59.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)23.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)7.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,081
Avg Win$173
# Winners38
Sum Trade PL (losers)$16,651
Sum Trade PL (winners)$6,574
Num Months Winners2
# Losers8
% Winners82.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table6

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)4912.52
Avg Position Time (hrs)81.88
Avg Trade Length3.40
Last Trade Ago2884

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-5.14
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.06
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.18
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-2.89
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)3.50
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats5.15
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats74.50
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.84
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.08
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.35

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-1.14
SD0.97
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.11
df14
t-1.31
p0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.69
Sortino ratio-1.16
Upside Potential Ratio0.15
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-1.29
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.98
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms14
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.90
Mean of criterion-1.14
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion0.97
Covariance0.21
r0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.27
Mean Square Error0.74
DF error13
t(b)2.22
p(b)0.18
t(a)-2.46
p(a)0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.91
Jensen alpha (a)-2.27
Mean-7.39
SD7.73
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.96
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.90
df14
t-1.07
p0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.88
Sortino ratio-0.95
Upside Potential Ratio0.02
Upside part of mean0.14
Downside part of mean-7.53
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD7.77
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms14
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.79
Mean of criterion-7.39
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion7.73
Covariance1.70
r0.55
b (slope, estimate of beta)10.80
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-15.96
Mean Square Error44.66
DF error13
t(b)2.40
p(b)0.17
t(a)-2.29
p(a)0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta20.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-31.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.91
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.68
Jensen alpha (a)-15.96
VaR(95%)0.99
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.99
VaR(95%)0.36
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.72
Mean-1.63
SD1.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.28
df327
t-1.44
p0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.47
Sortino ratio-1.36
Upside Potential Ratio1.48
Upside part of mean1.78
Downside part of mean-3.42
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD1.20
N nonnegative terms46
N negative terms282
N of observations328
Mean of predictor0.89
Mean of criterion-1.63
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion1.27
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.64
Mean Square Error1.62
DF error326
t(b)0.02
p(b)0.49
t(a)-1.43
p(a)0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.62
Treynor index (mean / b)-430.98
Jensen alpha (a)-1.64
Mean-7.38
SD6.76
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.09
df327
t-1.22
p0.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.66
Sortino ratio-1.09
Upside Potential Ratio0.25
Upside part of mean1.71
Downside part of mean-9.09
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD6.76
N nonnegative terms46
N negative terms282
N of observations328
Mean of predictor0.79
Mean of criterion-7.38
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion6.76
Covariance0.10
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.48
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-7.76
Mean Square Error45.80
DF error326
t(b)0.58
p(b)0.28
t(a)-1.28
p(a)0.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-19.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-15.39
Jensen alpha (a)-7.76
VaR(95%)0.51
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.58
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.14
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.03
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6800725841543168
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-9.57095836127624e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations15
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 10.60
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.47
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.85
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.52
Number of observations328
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.27
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low36
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high46
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.63
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.57
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.20
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.28
Median0.52
Quartile 30.76
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.48
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-461530976
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)7
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.80
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.01
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.80
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.71
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 28 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@QM Z8long1Aug 22, 2018Nov 15, 2018($5,333)
@QM Z8short1Aug 13, 2018Aug 22, 2018($1,258)
@QM Z8long1Jul 23, 2018Aug 13, 2018($683)
@RTY U8short1Jul 25, 2018Jul 25, 2018($193)
@ES U8long1Jul 16, 2018Jul 23, 2018$80
@QM Q8long1Jul 2, 2018Jul 16, 2018($2,583)
QCL Q8long1Jul 2, 2018Jul 16, 2018($4,808)
@RTY U8long1Jul 10, 2018Jul 10, 2018$297
@NQ U8long1Jul 9, 2018Jul 9, 2018$7
@RTY U8short1Jul 2, 2018Jul 2, 2018($491)
@NQ U8short1Jul 2, 2018Jul 2, 2018($1,366)
@RTY U8short1Jun 28, 2018Jul 2, 2018$247
@NQ U8short1Jun 29, 2018Jun 29, 2018$317
@NQ U8short1Jun 28, 2018Jun 28, 2018$95
@ES U8short1Jun 28, 2018Jun 28, 2018$205
@RTY U8short1Jun 28, 2018Jun 28, 2018$212
@QM Q8short1Jun 28, 2018Jun 28, 2018$180
@NQ U8short1Jun 28, 2018Jun 28, 2018$166
@RTY U8short1Jun 28, 2018Jun 28, 2018$210
@RTY U8short1Jun 27, 2018Jun 27, 2018$107
@RTY U8short1Jun 27, 2018Jun 27, 2018$209
@RTY U8short1Jun 26, 2018Jun 27, 2018$72
@NQ U8short1Jun 26, 2018Jun 26, 2018$217
@RTY U8short1Jun 25, 2018Jun 25, 2018$97
@ES U8long1Jun 25, 2018Jun 25, 2018$242
@RTY U8long1Jun 25, 2018Jun 25, 2018$207
@ES U8short1Jun 25, 2018Jun 25, 2018$205
@NQ U8short1Jun 22, 2018Jun 22, 2018$27
@RTY U8short1Jun 22, 2018Jun 22, 2018$202
@RTY U8short1Jun 21, 2018Jun 21, 2018$57

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.