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SPX Liquid Portfolio

Equity · Stocks · Started May 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
56
Win Trades
53.6%
Profit Factor
0.40
Win Months
38.2%

About this strategy

Coming Soon.

Hedged Equity Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20182.13.33.22.2-4.9-3.0-3.3-1.5-2.2
20193.54.7-2.8-0.62.4-8.5-2.6-8.3-5.32.1-5.6-2.0-21.6
2020-13.75.5-3.70.612.60.86.20.2-8.87.83.55.314.3
202113.210.8-9.2-2.01.2-0.30.2-5.7-0.1-1.0-3.220.522.6
2022-3.5-0.75.8-12.53.40.91.211.3-2.6-14.1-9.91.6-20.1
2023-1.9-4.4-4.4-14.8-7.03.52.74.13.98.9-2.04.9-8.6
2024-3.60.3-5.1-14.70.8-20.5-11.76.4-19.6-28.1-38.0-49.9-89.4
20259.3-135.9-105.82323.8-132.3-20.1-128.5-94.7-2754.7-115.9-40.5-39.5-233.1
2026-71.6-213.6-77.2-682.3-328.1-20.0-36.1-56.9-52.5-9.2-266.1

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/9/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$29,785
Age102 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades56
# Profitable30
% Profitable53.6%
Avg trade duration486.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodAug 21, 2025 - Oct 07, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$918
Avg loss$2,542

Ratios

W:L ratio0.37
Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Sortino Ratio-0.61
Calmar Ratio-1.00

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life189.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-329.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity—
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.9%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss20.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,542
Avg Win$918
# Winners30
Sum Trade PL (losers)$66,103
Sum Trade PL (winners)$27,537
Num Months Winners38
# Losers26
% Winners53.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct-3001

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table82

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)701034.25
Avg Position Time (hrs)11683.90
Avg Trade Length486.80
Last Trade Ago2935

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.35
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.11
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-2.22
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-15.35
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats99.52
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats26.11
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.28
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.11
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.15

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-1.10
SD0.97
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.08
df18
t-1.42
p0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.52
Sortino ratio-1.15
Upside Potential Ratio0.44
Upside part of mean0.42
Downside part of mean-1.52
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.95
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms12
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.69
Mean of criterion-1.10
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0.97
Covariance-0.05
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.97
Mean Square Error0.99
DF error17
t(b)-0.41
p(b)0.56
t(a)-1.14
p(a)0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.83
Treynor index (mean / b)5.86
Jensen alpha (a)-0.97
Mean-6.53
SD7.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.85
df18
t-1.12
p0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.73
Sortino ratio-0.89
Upside Potential Ratio0.05
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-6.92
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD7.37
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms12
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.57
Mean of criterion-6.53
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion7.32
Covariance-0.82
r-0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)-3.83
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-4.37
Mean Square Error53.48
DF error17
t(b)-1.03
p(b)0.65
t(a)-0.71
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-11.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-17.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha8.68
Treynor index (mean / b)1.70
Jensen alpha (a)-4.37
VaR(95%)0.98
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.99
VaR(95%)0.34
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.66
Mean2175.68
SD1673.61
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.30
df423
t1.65
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.84
Sortino ratio1117.75
Upside Potential Ratio1121.44
Upside part of mean2182.85
Downside part of mean-7.17
Upside SD1677.03
Downside SD1.95
N nonnegative terms184
N negative terms240
N of observations424
Mean of predictor0.70
Mean of criterion2175.68
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion1673.61
Covariance-26.73
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-192.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2309.81
Mean Square Error2802451.75
DF error422
t(b)-0.88
p(b)0.81
t(a)1.74
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-621.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta236.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-294.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4913.70
Treynor index (mean / b)-11.32
Jensen alpha (a)2309.82
Mean-6.39
SD15.46
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.41
df423
t-0.53
p0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.13
Sortino ratio-0.56
Upside Potential Ratio1.58
Upside part of mean18.18
Downside part of mean-24.57
Upside SD10.28
Downside SD11.52
N nonnegative terms184
N negative terms240
N of observations424
Mean of predictor0.63
Mean of criterion-6.39
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion15.46
Covariance-1.00
r-0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)-7.31
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.80
Mean Square Error232.13
DF error422
t(b)-3.65
p(b)1.00
t(a)-0.15
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-11.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-25.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha21.87
Treynor index (mean / b)0.87
Jensen alpha (a)-1.80
VaR(95%)0.80
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.86
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
Mean7041.81
SD2997.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.35
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.34
df130
t1.66
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.12
Sortino ratio2023.46
Upside Potential Ratio2029.07
Upside part of mean7061.35
Downside part of mean-19.54
Upside SD3017.09
Downside SD3.48
N nonnegative terms44
N negative terms87
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.35
Mean of criterion7041.81
SD of predictor0.53
SD of criterion2997.02
Covariance-104.54
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-378.65
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)7551.61
Mean Square Error9011858
DF error129
t(b)-0.76
p(b)0.54
t(a)1.76
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1370.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta612.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-953.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha16056.71
Treynor index (mean / b)-18.60
Jensen alpha (a)7551.61
Mean-20.63
SD27.85
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.74
df130
t-0.52
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.51
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.04
Sortino ratio-1.00
Upside Potential Ratio2.66
Upside part of mean55.14
Downside part of mean-75.77
Upside SD18.50
Downside SD20.72
N nonnegative terms44
N negative terms87
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.21
Mean of criterion-20.63
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion27.85
Covariance-3.19
r-0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)-11.88
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-6.28
Mean Square Error743.64
DF error129
t(b)-2.57
p(b)0.64
t(a)-0.16
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-21.00
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-83.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha70.82
Treynor index (mean / b)1.74
Jensen alpha (a)-6.28
VaR(95%)0.95
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.97
VaR(95%)0.20
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.43

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations19
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.87
Median0.98
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.31
Mean of quarter 10.58
Mean of quarter 20.95
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.13
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.23
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.31
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.63
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.50
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.43
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.81
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.58
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations424
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1646
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 434.32
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low54
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.81
Number of outliers high41
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high87.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations131
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.95
Median0.99
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1646
Mean of quarter 10.73
Mean of quarter 20.97
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 4107.99
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.36
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high505.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.99
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.27
Expected Shortfall (moments method)25.91
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.69
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.16

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations12
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.07
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.54
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.54
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.99
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.49
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.49
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.72
Number of observations4
Minimum0.09
Quartile 10.16
Median0.18
Quartile 30.39
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.09
Mean of quarter 20.18
Mean of quarter 30.18
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.23
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-468058496
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)412
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.63
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.01
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.62
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.85
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.17
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-2.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.03

Trading record

Placed 4 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
PLPC long73Aug 27, 2018Sep 28, 2018($2)
HURC long68Sep 21, 2018Sep 24, 2018$2
NATR long645Aug 27, 2018Sep 24, 2018$72
HI long58Sep 21, 2018Sep 24, 2018($76)
PHM long110Sep 21, 2018Sep 24, 2018($25)
BBSI long76Aug 27, 2018Sep 21, 2018($992)
CBPX long156Aug 31, 2018Sep 21, 2018$64
OSIS long76Aug 27, 2018Sep 21, 2018$31
ICHR long239Aug 27, 2018Sep 21, 2018($615)
AFI long325Aug 27, 2018Sep 21, 2018$705
WCG long19Aug 27, 2018Sep 21, 2018($70)
TUSK long194Aug 27, 2018Sep 21, 2018($38)
MEDP long97Aug 31, 2018Sep 21, 2018($296)
SPY1817U288 long2Sep 10, 2018Sep 18, 2018($265)
SPY short77Aug 13, 2018Sep 10, 2018($364)
HIBB long224Aug 27, 2018Aug 31, 2018$186
FL long92Aug 27, 2018Aug 31, 2018$160
INTU long41Aug 13, 2018Aug 27, 2018($52)
VRSN long56Aug 13, 2018Aug 27, 2018$190
TRIP long158Aug 13, 2018Aug 27, 2018($175)
UAL long105Aug 13, 2018Aug 27, 2018$473
BR long66Aug 13, 2018Aug 27, 2018$271
VRSN long55.5Jul 30, 2018Aug 13, 2018$356
TRIP long140.6Jul 30, 2018Aug 13, 2018($539)
UAL long100.64Jul 23, 2018Aug 13, 2018$107
SPY short76.59Jul 2, 2018Aug 13, 2018($980)
INTU long39.96Aug 6, 2018Aug 13, 2018$208
PSX long67.34Jul 30, 2018Aug 13, 2018$124
CNC long63.27Jul 6, 2018Jul 30, 2018$119
TRIP long138.01Jul 13, 2018Jul 23, 2018$38

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.