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Fission Fund

Equity · Stocks · Started May 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-4.2%
Max Drawdown
56.5%
Trades
88
Win Trades
63.6%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
2.0%

About this strategy

A proprietary stock and options strategy developed 100% by me. I was a nuclear engineer for most of my life, and put my analytical and quant skills to work in the market, developing an amazing system I use to find momentum in stocks before it happens. With over a decade of time in the market, it is tried and true and finally ready for public use. This strategy uses technical and fundamental analysis to find only high probability trades, with a high win ratio and aggressive return expectation.

Momentum Event-driven

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201838.7-27.7-7.52.3-27.10.00.00.0-30.7
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/5/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age103 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades88
# Profitable56
% Profitable63.6%
Avg trade duration36.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown56.5%
drawdown periodJune 20, 2018 - Sept 13, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)-4.2%
Avg win$1,021
Avg loss$2,239

Ratios

W:L ratio0.80
Sharpe Ratio-0.37
Sortino Ratio-0.40
Calmar Ratio-0.44

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life177.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-213.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-4.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-3.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity129.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss75.0%
Chance of 20% account loss33.5%
Chance of 30% account loss8.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,239
Avg Win$1,021
# Winners56
Sum Trade PL (losers)$71,657
Sum Trade PL (winners)$57,196
Num Months Winners2
# Losers32
% Winners63.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table103

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)52785.98
Avg Position Time (hrs)879.77
Avg Trade Length36.70
Last Trade Ago3051

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index5.99

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.16
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-60.06
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.16
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats9.46
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats18.45
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.50
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.06
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.08

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.14
SD0.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.23
df13
t-0.26
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.59
Sortino ratio-0.37
Upside Potential Ratio1.07
Upside part of mean0.42
Downside part of mean-0.56
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms12
N of observations14
Mean of predictor1.02
Mean of criterion-0.14
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0.59
Covariance0.04
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.31
Mean Square Error0.37
DF error12
t(b)0.48
p(b)0.43
t(a)-0.47
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.14
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.88
Jensen alpha (a)-0.31
Mean-0.31
SD0.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.49
df13
t-0.56
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.34
Sortino ratio-0.67
Upside Potential Ratio0.76
Upside part of mean0.35
Downside part of mean-0.65
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.46
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms12
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.88
Mean of criterion-0.31
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0.59
Covariance0.05
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.51
Mean Square Error0.36
DF error12
t(b)0.66
p(b)0.41
t(a)-0.80
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.88
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.30
Jensen alpha (a)-0.51
VaR(95%)0.26
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.31
VaR(95%)0.15
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.29
Mean-0.24
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.74
df307
t-0.80
p0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.07
Sortino ratio-0.82
Upside Potential Ratio1.98
Upside part of mean0.59
Downside part of mean-0.83
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms258
N of observations308
Mean of predictor0.96
Mean of criterion-0.24
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.25
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error306
t(b)0.13
p(b)0.45
t(a)-0.81
p(a)0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)-41.93
Jensen alpha (a)-0.25
Mean-0.30
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.87
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.86
df307
t-0.94
p0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.95
Sortino ratio-0.94
Upside Potential Ratio1.80
Upside part of mean0.58
Downside part of mean-0.88
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.32
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms258
N of observations308
Mean of predictor0.87
Mean of criterion-0.30
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.31
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error306
t(b)0.12
p(b)0.45
t(a)-0.94
p(a)0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)-52.41
Jensen alpha (a)-0.31
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.69
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.57
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6732702686380032
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.2216901751698e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations14
Minimum0.69
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.46
Mean of quarter 10.84
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.12
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.21
Mean of outliers low0.79
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.28
Number of observations308
Minimum0.82
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low41
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high51
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.32
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.65
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.50
Quartile 10.50
Median0.50
Quartile 30.50
Maximum0.50
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.54
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.54
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-890945920
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)85
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.24
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.24
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.48
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.78
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.24
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.24
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.44
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.85
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.38
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 143 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
DFBG long5000Jun 27, 2018Jun 27, 2018($463)
CLDC long15000Jun 27, 2018Jun 27, 2018($9,955)
PED long3000Jun 27, 2018Jun 27, 2018($386)
XERS long1000Jun 21, 2018Jun 27, 2018$555
SPHS long1000Jun 26, 2018Jun 27, 2018($375)
DFBG long2000Jun 27, 2018Jun 27, 2018$52
CLDC long5000Jun 27, 2018Jun 27, 2018$6,855
CPAH long2000Jun 26, 2018Jun 26, 2018($971)
ABIL long500Jun 26, 2018Jun 26, 2018($530)
CLDC long5000Jun 26, 2018Jun 26, 2018$3,416
XBIO long3000Jun 26, 2018Jun 26, 2018($3,380)
CNDT short2000Jun 22, 2018Jun 25, 2018$1,489
CLPS long500Jun 19, 2018Jun 25, 2018$963
MYSZ long10000Jun 21, 2018Jun 25, 2018($2,505)
CADC long4000Jun 22, 2018Jun 22, 2018($14,105)
SBOT long4000Jun 21, 2018Jun 21, 2018($2,016)
SRPT long250Jun 20, 2018Jun 20, 2018$621
WWE long300Jun 19, 2018Jun 20, 2018$648
IQ long1000Jun 19, 2018Jun 20, 2018$748
I long2000Jun 20, 2018Jun 20, 2018$1,608
ASTC long3000Jun 19, 2018Jun 19, 2018($1,956)
SOGO long1000Jun 15, 2018Jun 18, 2018$699
AGMH long500Jun 15, 2018Jun 15, 2018($2,376)
DBX long500Jun 15, 2018Jun 15, 2018$1,099
GOOS long500Jun 15, 2018Jun 15, 2018$662
HUYA long500Jun 15, 2018Jun 15, 2018$1,327
CLPS long1000Jun 15, 2018Jun 15, 2018$454
ZS long500Jun 7, 2018Jun 11, 2018$950
HEAR long1000Jun 7, 2018Jun 8, 2018$2,357
AXON long5000Jun 7, 2018Jun 7, 2018$2,091

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.