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IRA Truck

Equity · Stocks · Started Feb 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
9.5%
Max Drawdown
31.0%
Trades
72
Win Trades
41.7%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
9.5%

About this strategy

IRA Truck is designed for significant gains with moderate losses. IRA Truck is algorithmically controlled to predict trends in the equities and volatility ETP markets, and on occasion diversifies by holding a significant bond portion. Average trade length is expected in the 3-30 day range, but on strong trends may stay in one direction for weeks. Of course these are estimates based on past markets only. No future performance or behavior can be guaranteed.

Before Sept 2018, IRA Truck was a discretionary stock and ETF trading strategy, and its results remain here for posterity. Subscription price will go up on July 1 2019 to $49/month.

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2018-4.0-0.41.33.31.5-1.9-1.7-0.7-6.0-5.520.13.6
20192.07.99.211.2-10.216.4-2.3-15.0-9.9-6.39.70.07.3
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/16/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age105 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades72
# Profitable30
% Profitable41.7%
Avg trade duration21.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown31.0%
drawdown periodJune 20, 2019 - Oct 30, 2019
Annual Return (Compounded)9.5%
Avg win$1,981
Avg loss$1,156

Ratios

W:L ratio1.23
Sharpe Ratio0.02
Sortino Ratio0.03
Calmar Ratio0.28

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.09
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life182.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)2.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)9.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity34.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss61.0%
Chance of 20% account loss35.0%
Chance of 30% account loss10.5%
Chance of 40% account loss1.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.6%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)713
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)513

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,156
Avg Win$1,981
# Winners30
Sum Trade PL (losers)$48,539
Sum Trade PL (winners)$59,417
Num Months Winners10
# Losers42
% Winners41.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct153

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table105

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)30177.08
Avg Position Time (hrs)502.95
Avg Trade Length21
Last Trade Ago2503

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.52
Daily leverage (max)3.83

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.05
Treynor Index0.01

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-24.23
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.76
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats17.01
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats9.62
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.23
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.23
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.08
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.26
df19
t0.35
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.78
Sortino ratio0.46
Upside Potential Ratio2.43
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.36
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms10
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.01
r0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.44
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error18
t(b)0.86
p(b)0.40
t(a)0.27
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Treynor index (mean / b)0.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.04
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.13
df19
t0.17
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.65
Sortino ratio0.21
Upside Potential Ratio2.16
Upside part of mean0.41
Downside part of mean-0.37
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms10
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.01
r0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.46
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error18
t(b)0.92
p(b)0.39
t(a)0.10
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.51
Treynor index (mean / b)0.09
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
Mean0.10
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.49
df455
t0.65
p0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.98
Sortino ratio0.73
Upside Potential Ratio8.07
Upside part of mean1.13
Downside part of mean-1.03
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms209
N negative terms247
N of observations456
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.01
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.34
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error454
t(b)5.34
p(b)0
t(a)0.53
p(a)0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)0.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.08
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.39
df455
t0.51
p0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.87
Sortino ratio0.57
Upside Potential Ratio7.89
Upside part of mean1.12
Downside part of mean-1.04
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms209
N negative terms247
N of observations456
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.01
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error454
t(b)5.43
p(b)0
t(a)0.41
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)0.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.20
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.97
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.97
df130
t-0.69
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.80
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.81
Sortino ratio-1.30
Upside Potential Ratio6.37
Upside part of mean0.99
Downside part of mean-1.19
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms51
N negative terms80
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-0.20
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.01
r0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.59
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.32
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error129
t(b)4.58
p(b)0.27
t(a)-1.19
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.34
Jensen alpha (a)-0.32
Mean-0.22
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.07
df130
t-0.76
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.71
Sortino ratio-1.41
Upside Potential Ratio6.22
Upside part of mean0.98
Downside part of mean-1.20
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms51
N negative terms80
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion-0.22
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.01
r0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.59
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.34
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error129
t(b)4.61
p(b)0.27
t(a)-1.25
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.37
Jensen alpha (a)-0.34
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations20
Minimum0.85
Quartile 10.95
Median1.00
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.13
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.87
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.16
Number of observations456
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low32
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high24
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.35
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.07
Median0.12
Quartile 30.19
Maximum0.27
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.09
Mean of quarter 30.16
Mean of quarter 40.27
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations18
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.04
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.19
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.44
Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.05
Quartile 30.17
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.29
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-262223504
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)132
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.26
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.26
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.44
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.39
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.78
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.45
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.60
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.60
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-6.58

Trading record

Placed 49 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TQQQ long700Oct 30, 2019Nov 27, 2019$5,373
TQQQ long900Sep 24, 2019Oct 2, 2019($5,846)
VXX long1500Sep 16, 2019Sep 23, 2019($905)
TQQQ long800Sep 11, 2019Sep 16, 2019($309)
RETL long1000Sep 12, 2019Sep 13, 2019($235)
SPXL long500Sep 11, 2019Sep 12, 2019$495
VXX long2000Sep 6, 2019Sep 11, 2019($2,544)
TQQQ long500Aug 28, 2019Aug 30, 2019$695
VXX long1000Aug 23, 2019Aug 28, 2019$116
TQQQ long1000Aug 19, 2019Aug 23, 2019($2,934)
VXX long2000Aug 14, 2019Aug 16, 2019($461)
TQQQ long1000Aug 13, 2019Aug 14, 2019($2,793)
VXX long1000Aug 5, 2019Aug 8, 2019($1,660)
TQQQ long750Jul 2, 2019Aug 2, 2019($2,808)
VXX long1000Jun 25, 2019Jul 11, 2019($2,839)
TQQQ long1000Jun 4, 2019Jun 25, 2019$13,207
TQQQ long1000May 29, 2019Jun 3, 2019($4,085)
VXX long2000May 23, 2019May 29, 2019$1,695
TQQQ long1000May 13, 2019May 24, 2019($2,002)
TQQQ long500May 9, 2019May 13, 2019($1,210)
VXX long1000May 7, 2019May 8, 2019($361)
TQQQ long800Apr 26, 2019May 7, 2019($3,806)
SQQQ long8500Apr 24, 2019Apr 25, 2019($643)
TQQQ long1000Apr 8, 2019Apr 24, 2019$6,065
TQQQ long900Jan 31, 2019Apr 2, 2019$11,742
SVXY long250Jan 31, 2019Apr 2, 2019$1,325
SVXY long500Jan 8, 2019Jan 23, 2019($185)
TQQQ long600Jan 8, 2019Jan 23, 2019$421
VXX long1000Dec 19, 2018Dec 28, 2018$4,755
SQQQ long600Dec 19, 2018Dec 28, 2018($215)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.