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5355b

Futures · Started Feb 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.3%
Max Drawdown
4.6%
Trades
39
Win Trades
71.8%
Profit Factor
2.20
Win Months
3.8%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20183.50.711.4-2.31.4-2.40.00.00.00.00.012.2
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/14/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age105 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades39
# Profitable28
% Profitable71.8%
Avg trade duration1.2 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown4.6%
drawdown periodApril 12, 2018 - July 02, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)1.3%
Avg win$431
Avg loss$493

Ratios

W:L ratio2.23
Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Sortino Ratio-0.47
Calmar Ratio1.85

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life183.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-177.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity4.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$493
Avg Win$431
# Winners28
Sum Trade PL (losers)$5,418
Sum Trade PL (winners)$12,077
Num Months Winners4
# Losers11
% Winners71.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table105

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)70.78
Avg Position Time (hrs)1.18
Avg Trade Length0
Last Trade Ago3024

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0
Treynor Index-5.23

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.05
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.22
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats86.61
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats26.83
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.48
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.23
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.49

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.05
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.56
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.54
df19
t0.73
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.07
Sortino ratio2.60
Upside Potential Ratio4.72
Upside part of mean0.09
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms18
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance-0.00
r-0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error18
t(b)-0.61
p(b)0.57
t(a)0.91
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.43
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
Mean0.05
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.52
df19
t0.70
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.06
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.05
Sortino ratio2.39
Upside Potential Ratio4.50
Upside part of mean0.09
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms18
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance-0.00
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error18
t(b)-0.57
p(b)0.57
t(a)0.86
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.41
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.05
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.02
df445
t1.33
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.52
Sortino ratio2.15
Upside Potential Ratio5.74
Upside part of mean0.12
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms407
N of observations446
Mean of predictor0.69
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error444
t(b)-0.10
p(b)0.54
t(a)1.33
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-93.05
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.05
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.00
df445
t1.31
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.50
Sortino ratio2.09
Upside Potential Ratio5.67
Upside part of mean0.12
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms407
N of observations446
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error444
t(b)-0.07
p(b)0.53
t(a)1.31
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-130.42
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.08
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.95
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6821124788715520
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-9.54159597096944e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations20
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-3.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations446
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low16
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high39
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-12.97
VaR(95%) (moments method)-18.85
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.58
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.03
Median0.03
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.03
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.04
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-449765280
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)81
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.89
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.67
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.85
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.85
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.62
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 92 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@ES U8short2Jul 2, 2018Jul 2, 2018($1,375)
@ES U8short1Jun 29, 2018Jun 29, 2018$291
@ES U8short1Jun 28, 2018Jun 28, 2018($19)
@ES U8short1Jun 22, 2018Jun 22, 2018($31)
@ES U8short1Jun 20, 2018Jun 20, 2018$45
@NQ U8short1Jun 15, 2018Jun 15, 2018$391
@ES U8short1Jun 11, 2018Jun 11, 2018$128
@ES M8short2May 17, 2018May 17, 2018($742)
@ES M8short1May 10, 2018May 10, 2018($975)
@ES M8short1May 9, 2018May 9, 2018($257)
@ES M8short1May 8, 2018May 8, 2018$244
@ES M8short1May 7, 2018May 7, 2018$270
@ES M8short1May 2, 2018May 2, 2018$138
@ES M8long1Apr 30, 2018Apr 30, 2018$192
@ES M8long2Apr 12, 2018Apr 12, 2018($883)
@ES M8short2Apr 10, 2018Apr 10, 2018$1,004
@ES M8long1Apr 10, 2018Apr 10, 2018$137
@ES M8short2Apr 9, 2018Apr 9, 2018$615
@ES M8short2Apr 6, 2018Apr 6, 2018$2,024
@ES M8long2Apr 4, 2018Apr 4, 2018$417
@ES M8short1Apr 4, 2018Apr 4, 2018$179
@ES M8long2Apr 3, 2018Apr 3, 2018$1,982
@ES M8short1Apr 2, 2018Apr 2, 2018$311
@ES M8long1Mar 23, 2018Mar 23, 2018$70
@ES M8long1Mar 21, 2018Mar 21, 2018($540)
@ES M8long1Mar 20, 2018Mar 20, 2018($189)
@ES M8long1Mar 20, 2018Mar 20, 2018($269)
@ES M8long1Mar 20, 2018Mar 20, 2018$127
@ES M8long1Mar 16, 2018Mar 16, 2018$365
@ES M8long1Mar 15, 2018Mar 15, 2018($250)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.