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Compound

Equity · Futures · Started Jan 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
160
Win Trades
83.8%
Profit Factor
0.40
Win Months
31.8%

About this strategy

Low correlated with S&P500 diversified methodology, trading undervalued companies with strong fundamentals, growing dividends, using efficient frontier and modern theory portfolio for long-term positions management. In addition, equity options and index futures are used to hedge portfolio or generate free cash flow.

You can find some additional information at:
https://web.tresorit.com/l#xLiAPSCC8WJKFGVYNZUsag

I did stop managing strategy on 08/22/2018

Risk Disclosure
Futures, options, and stocks margin trading contain substantial risk and are not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hedged Equity

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2018-1.14.4-5.08.29.3-2.52.810.31.6-13.33.3-9.45.8
2019-12.9-4.910.63.28.23.8-2.0-6.16.62.2-4.05.78.0
2020-35.017.0-44.735.87.0-1.7-2.30.3-25.5-0.922.17.0-43.3
202110.02.29.55.28.74.2-41.15.512.75.1-9.41.8-0.5
2022-12.3-21.4-56.90.23.4-4.118.2-29.90.1-143.60.00.0-110.7
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/30/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$250,000
Age107 months
What it tradesStocks, Futures
# Trades160
# Profitable134
% Profitable83.8%
Avg trade duration108.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodOct 08, 2022 - Oct 26, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$950
Avg loss$18,003

Ratios

W:L ratio0.44
Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Sortino Ratio-0.29
Calmar Ratio-0.97

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.09
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life166.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-273.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity—
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.6%
Percent Trades Options0.2%
Short Options - Percent Covered30.3%
Percent Trades Stocks0.2%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss30.0%
Chance of 20% account loss3.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)262
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$18,003
Avg Win$950
# Winners134
Sum Trade PL (losers)$468,077
Sum Trade PL (winners)$127,287
Num Months Winners34
# Losers26
% Winners83.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct76630

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table58

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)155606.16
Avg Position Time (hrs)2593.44
Avg Trade Length108.10
Last Trade Ago2972

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.50
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.45
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.14
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-5.94
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)16.35
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats96.06
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats95.97
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.16
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.72
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.68

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.52
SD0.78
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.66
df39
t-1.22
p0.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.43
Sortino ratio-0.71
Upside Potential Ratio0.69
Upside part of mean0.51
Downside part of mean-1.03
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.74
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms18
N of observations40
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion-0.52
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.78
Covariance0.07
r0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.92
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.83
Mean Square Error0.56
DF error38
t(b)2.10
p(b)0.02
t(a)-1.91
p(a)0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.57
Jensen alpha (a)-0.83
Mean-3.73
SD5.99
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.61
df39
t-1.14
p0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.47
Sortino ratio-0.62
Upside Potential Ratio0.08
Upside part of mean0.48
Downside part of mean-4.21
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD6.01
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms18
N of observations40
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion-3.73
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion5.99
Covariance0.19
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.85
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-4.56
Mean Square Error36.27
DF error38
t(b)0.77
p(b)0.22
t(a)-1.31
p(a)0.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta10.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-11.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.46
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.31
Jensen alpha (a)-4.56
VaR(95%)0.96
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.98
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.39
Mean-0.25
SD1.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.21
df880
t-0.39
p0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.85
Sortino ratio-0.29
Upside Potential Ratio2.82
Upside part of mean2.46
Downside part of mean-2.72
Upside SD0.80
Downside SD0.87
N nonnegative terms529
N negative terms352
N of observations881
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion-0.25
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion1.19
Covariance0.03
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.35
Mean Square Error1.41
DF error879
t(b)2.21
p(b)0.01
t(a)-0.55
p(a)0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.92
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.85
Jensen alpha (a)-0.35
Mean-3.70
SD5.92
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.62
df880
t-1.15
p0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.45
Sortino ratio-0.63
Upside Potential Ratio0.38
Upside part of mean2.25
Downside part of mean-5.94
Upside SD0.60
Downside SD5.89
N nonnegative terms529
N negative terms352
N of observations881
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion-3.70
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion5.92
Covariance-0.06
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.65
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.51
Mean Square Error35.02
DF error879
t(b)-0.97
p(b)0.83
t(a)-1.08
p(a)0.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-9.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.84
Treynor index (mean / b)5.66
Jensen alpha (a)-3.51
VaR(95%)0.46
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.53
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean-4.10
SD1.88
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.16
df130
t-1.54
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.61
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.62
Sortino ratio-2.21
Upside Potential Ratio0.77
Upside part of mean1.43
Downside part of mean-5.53
Upside SD0.39
Downside SD1.85
N nonnegative terms112
N negative terms19
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.20
Mean of criterion-4.10
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion1.88
Covariance0.05
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-4.31
Mean Square Error3.57
DF error129
t(b)0.56
p(b)0.47
t(a)-1.60
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-9.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-22.40
Jensen alpha (a)-4.31
Mean-24.72
SD15.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.62
df130
t-1.15
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.40
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.16
Sortino ratio-1.63
Upside Potential Ratio0.09
Upside part of mean1.36
Downside part of mean-26.08
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD15.18
N nonnegative terms112
N negative terms19
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.07
Mean of criterion-24.72
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion15.17
Covariance-0.44
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.76
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-22.83
Mean Square Error231.09
DF error129
t(b)-0.66
p(b)0.54
t(a)-1.05
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-7.02
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-65.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha20.08
Treynor index (mean / b)14.05
Jensen alpha (a)-22.83
VaR(95%)0.81
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.86
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations40
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.94
Median1
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.25
Mean of quarter 10.68
Mean of quarter 20.97
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.41
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.37
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.62
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.35
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.07
Number of observations881
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum2.08
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low55
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high39
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.93
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.50
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.84
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations131
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low19
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.85
Number of outliers high24
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.05
Median0.06
Quartile 30.53
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0.49
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations14
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.06
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.33
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.58
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.97
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.36
Expected Shortfall (moments method)14.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.71
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-838689728
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)18
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.30
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.98
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.98
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.00
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.30
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.98
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.94
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.83
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-2.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.16

Trading record

Placed 476 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
BPY1821U25 short50Jul 19, 2018Sep 22, 2018$32,545
BPY1821U20 short25Jul 3, 2018Sep 22, 2018$5,634
@ES U8short4Aug 19, 2018Aug 21, 2018$843
BX1831H36 short25Aug 16, 2018Aug 21, 2018($935)
BX long2581Jul 24, 2018Aug 20, 2018$1,159
BX1817H36.5 short25Jul 24, 2018Aug 16, 2018$790
@ES U8short3Aug 10, 2018Aug 15, 2018$2,626
@ES U8short2Aug 9, 2018Aug 9, 2018$734
BPY1817T20 short25Jun 26, 2018Aug 7, 2018$3,090
EQGP1817T25 short5Jul 13, 2018Aug 3, 2018$448
@ES U8short1Aug 2, 2018Aug 2, 2018($8)
@ES U8short2Jul 30, 2018Aug 2, 2018$734
EQGP1817H25 short25Jul 13, 2018Aug 1, 2018$2,090
BEP long3800Jul 23, 2018Jul 31, 2018$73
@ES U8short1Jul 26, 2018Jul 26, 2018($8)
SHLX1817T23 short12Jul 23, 2018Jul 24, 2018($17)
@YM U8short2Jul 17, 2018Jul 23, 2018$834
SHLX1820S23 short11Jul 9, 2018Jul 19, 2018$370
MPLX1817T34 short15Jul 12, 2018Jul 19, 2018$774
MPLX1820S34 short15Jul 5, 2018Jul 18, 2018$799
NS1817T22.5 short20Jun 27, 2018Jul 11, 2018$697
YPF1817T14 short34Jun 28, 2018Jul 10, 2018$1,312
ARCC long2000Jul 6, 2018Jul 9, 2018$115
NILSY long3351Jul 5, 2018Jul 6, 2018$847
WPM1820S22 short22Jun 20, 2018Jul 6, 2018$761
GILD1820S70 short7Jun 20, 2018Jul 6, 2018$725
PBR long4700Jun 28, 2018Jul 5, 2018$1,225
PBR1820G11 short47Jun 29, 2018Jul 5, 2018($160)
@ES U8long9Jun 21, 2018Jun 21, 2018$316
@YM U8long3Jun 20, 2018Jun 21, 2018($19)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.