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Testing #2

Stocks · Started Jan 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
8.2%
Max Drawdown
10.5%
Trades
123
Win Trades
49.6%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
12.3%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20187.6-0.8-0.72.52.0-3.82.91.5-2.2-2.3-3.52.45.1
20196.83.7-1.81.9-4.94.2-1.03.0-5.71.13.3-0.39.9
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/2/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age107 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades123
# Profitable61
% Profitable49.6%
Avg trade duration2.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown10.5%
drawdown periodMay 22, 2018 - Dec 11, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)8.2%
Avg win$836
Avg loss$610

Ratios

W:L ratio1.35
Sharpe Ratio-0.03
Sortino Ratio-0.04
Calmar Ratio1.08

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.17
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life187.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-3.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)8.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity3.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss8.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)681
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)306

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$610
Avg Win$836
# Winners61
Sum Trade PL (losers)$37,823
Sum Trade PL (winners)$50,982
Num Months Winners13
# Losers62
% Winners49.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct44

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table106

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3452.72
Avg Position Time (hrs)57.54
Avg Trade Length2.40
Last Trade Ago2520

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.69
Daily leverage (max)4.02

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.05
Treynor Index-0.01

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades4.83
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.31
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats19.72
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats14.69
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.32
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.23
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.21

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.10
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.90
df22
t1.29
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.54
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.34
Sortino ratio1.74
Upside Potential Ratio3.46
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms10
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.01
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error21
t(b)2.21
p(b)0.23
t(a)1.01
p(a)0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)0.25
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
Mean0.09
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.86
df22
t1.23
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.29
Sortino ratio1.60
Upside Potential Ratio3.32
Upside part of mean0.19
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms10
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.01
r0.42
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error21
t(b)2.15
p(b)0.24
t(a)0.98
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)0.24
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.10
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.95
df510
t1.33
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.36
Sortino ratio1.47
Upside Potential Ratio8.41
Upside part of mean0.55
Downside part of mean-0.46
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms181
N negative terms330
N of observations511
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.01
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error509
t(b)10.70
p(b)0
t(a)1.13
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.34
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
Mean0.09
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.90
df510
t1.26
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.31
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.31
Sortino ratio1.38
Upside Potential Ratio8.30
Upside part of mean0.55
Downside part of mean-0.46
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms181
N negative terms330
N of observations511
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.01
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error509
t(b)10.68
p(b)0
t(a)1.10
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.32
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.03
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.43
df130
t0.30
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.34
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.20
Sortino ratio0.68
Upside Potential Ratio8.40
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.36
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms46
N negative terms85
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance0.00
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.00
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)3.38
p(b)0.32
t(a)0.01
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.00
Mean0.03
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.39
df130
t0.28
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.16
Sortino ratio0.62
Upside Potential Ratio8.33
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.37
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms46
N negative terms85
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance0.00
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)3.35
p(b)0.32
t(a)-0.00
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.17
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations23
Minimum0.96
Quartile 10.99
Median1.01
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.88
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations511
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low26
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high39
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.09
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.63
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations15
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.64
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-238560768
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)203
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.37
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.64
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.42
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.58
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.82
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.16
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.91
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.91
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.30

Trading record

Placed 11 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SSO long414Nov 22, 2019Nov 26, 2019$1,048
SSO long443Nov 11, 2019Nov 20, 2019$1,001
SSO long443Oct 30, 2019Oct 31, 2019($465)
SSO long454Oct 21, 2019Oct 28, 2019$1,317
SSO long456Oct 16, 2019Oct 18, 2019($460)
SSO long477Oct 11, 2019Oct 15, 2019$1,020
SSO long477Oct 9, 2019Oct 10, 2019$276
SSO long222Oct 7, 2019Oct 8, 2019($874)
SSO long228Sep 26, 2019Sep 27, 2019($338)
SSO long459Sep 25, 2019Sep 26, 2019($523)
SSO long450Sep 19, 2019Sep 20, 2019($549)
SSO long453Sep 17, 2019Sep 18, 2019($1,060)
SSO long463Sep 10, 2019Sep 16, 2019$250
SSO long477Sep 5, 2019Sep 9, 2019$186
SSO long477Aug 30, 2019Sep 3, 2019($1,169)
SSO long480Aug 29, 2019Aug 30, 2019$429
SSO long493Aug 26, 2019Aug 27, 2019$902
SSO long717Aug 19, 2019Aug 22, 2019($403)
SSO long472Aug 13, 2019Aug 13, 2019($117)
SSO long481Aug 7, 2019Aug 8, 2019$1,671
SSO long158Aug 1, 2019Aug 1, 2019($567)
SSO long440Jul 23, 2019Jul 30, 2019($2)
SSO long407Jul 19, 2019Jul 19, 2019($399)
SSO long761Jul 5, 2019Jul 17, 2019($739)
SSO long222Jul 5, 2019Jul 5, 2019($15)
SSO long150Jul 3, 2019Jul 5, 2019($186)
SSO long338Jun 27, 2019Jul 1, 2019$1,311
SSO long339Jun 19, 2019Jun 20, 2019$409
SSO long163Jun 13, 2019Jun 13, 2019($88)
SSO long308Jun 10, 2019Jun 11, 2019($397)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.