Collective2 Collective2
Featured Strategy Quant AI pro +16.8% Cumul. Return since Dec 2, 2024 Hypothetical

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5355p
(115194250)

Created by: O5355p O5355p
Started: 12/2017
Futures
Last trade: 2,358 days ago

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. You can subscribe to this system for free.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

1.6%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(10.9%)
Max Drawdown
50
Num Trades
62.0%
Win Trades
1.6 : 1
Profit Factor
3.6%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2017                                                                             +16.2%+16.2%
2018+6.7%+0.3%(3.7%)(1.4%)(3.2%)(0.5%)(1.5%)  -    -    -    -    -  (3.5%)
2019  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2020  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2021  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2022  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2023  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2024  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 7 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 118 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. To see live brokerage data, select Show AutoTrade Data, and click on a Live AutoTrade Indicator symbol.

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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
7/9/18 9:31 @ESU8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2773.62 7/9 11:22 2782.75 0.79%
Trade id #118822021
Max drawdown($456)
Time7/9/18 11:22
Quant open0
Worst price2782.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.79%
 ($464)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
7/6/18 10:47 @ESU8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2749.00 7/6 11:09 2755.50 0.56%
Trade id #118803126
Max drawdown($325)
Time7/6/18 11:09
Quant open0
Worst price2755.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.56%
 ($333)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/18/18 9:37 @ESU8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2763.50 6/18 16:00 2778.25 1.34%
Trade id #118479599
Max drawdown($775)
Time6/18/18 15:51
Quant open-1
Worst price2779.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.34%
 ($746)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/15/18 9:22 @ESU8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2774.50 6/15 10:16 2775.00 0.45%
Trade id #118452638
Max drawdown($262)
Time6/15/18 9:30
Quant open-1
Worst price2779.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.45%
 ($33)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/14/18 12:04 @ESU8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2788.50 6/14 12:56 2785.38 0.11%
Trade id #118438802
Max drawdown($62)
Time6/14/18 12:12
Quant open-1
Worst price2789.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.11%
 $148
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/12/18 10:18 @ESU8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2788.75 6/12 14:28 2785.25 0.45%
Trade id #118389099
Max drawdown($262)
Time6/12/18 12:03
Quant open-1
Worst price2794.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.45%
 $167
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/11/18 10:24 @ESU8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2787.38 6/11 11:06 2785.25 0.1%
Trade id #118369992
Max drawdown($56)
Time6/11/18 10:27
Quant open-1
Worst price2788.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.10%
 $98
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/7/18 10:15 @ESM8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2774.12 6/7 10:30 2771.38 0.1%
Trade id #118312117
Max drawdown($56)
Time6/7/18 10:17
Quant open-1
Worst price2775.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.10%
 $130
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/23/18 9:34 @ESM8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2712.19 5/23 14:25 2727.62 1.32%
Trade id #118066938
Max drawdown($772)
Time5/23/18 14:25
Quant open0
Worst price2727.62
Drawdown as % of equity-1.32%
 ($780)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/4/18 9:30 @ESM8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2617.23 5/4 10:27 2638.27 1.77%
Trade id #117795004
Max drawdown($1,052)
Time5/4/18 10:27
Quant open0
Worst price2638.27
Drawdown as % of equity-1.77%
 ($1,060)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/24/18 10:56 @ESM8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2672.48 4/24 11:02 2665.56 0.06%
Trade id #117638953
Max drawdown($38)
Time4/24/18 10:58
Quant open-1
Worst price2673.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.06%
 $338
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/11/18 10:32 @ESM8 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 2653.18 4/11 14:09 2644.54 1.44%
Trade id #117465937
Max drawdown($864)
Time4/11/18 14:09
Quant open0
Worst price2644.54
Drawdown as % of equity-1.44%
 ($880)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.00
4/9/18 9:31 @ESM8 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 2619.79 4/9 10:29 2627.57 0.55%
Trade id #117424736
Max drawdown($326)
Time4/9/18 9:41
Quant open1
Worst price2613.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.55%
 $381
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/3/18 9:56 @ESM8 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 2587.06 4/3 10:20 2574.17 1.06%
Trade id #117344820
Max drawdown($645)
Time4/3/18 10:20
Quant open0
Worst price2574.17
Drawdown as % of equity-1.06%
 ($653)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
3/28/18 11:24 @ESM8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2601.46 3/28 11:57 2617.01 1.27%
Trade id #117278929
Max drawdown($777)
Time3/28/18 11:57
Quant open0
Worst price2617.01
Drawdown as % of equity-1.27%
 ($785)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
3/26/18 14:24 @ESM8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2638.33 3/26 15:31 2654.76 1.32%
Trade id #117235714
Max drawdown($821)
Time3/26/18 15:31
Quant open0
Worst price2654.76
Drawdown as % of equity-1.32%
 ($829)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
3/22/18 9:40 @ESM8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2690.44 3/22 10:43 2683.11 0.63%
Trade id #117178366
Max drawdown($390)
Time3/22/18 10:15
Quant open-1
Worst price2698.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.63%
 $359
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
3/20/18 10:23 @ESM8 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 2720.00 3/20 10:34 2725.01 0.08%
Trade id #117136022
Max drawdown($50)
Time3/20/18 10:27
Quant open1
Worst price2719.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.08%
 $242
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
3/20/18 9:58 @ESM8 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 2721.68 3/20 10:13 2718.00 0.3%
Trade id #117134965
Max drawdown($184)
Time3/20/18 10:13
Quant open0
Worst price2718.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.30%
 ($192)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
3/16/18 10:09 @NQM8 E-MINI NASDAQ 100 STK IDX LONG 1 7067.23 3/16 16:04 7043.68 1.1%
Trade id #117092525
Max drawdown($684)
Time3/16/18 12:00
Quant open1
Worst price7033.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.10%
 ($479)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
3/14/18 9:36 @ESM8 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 2776.44 3/14 13:19 2751.80 2.09%
Trade id #117038105
Max drawdown($1,309)
Time3/14/18 12:11
Quant open1
Worst price2750.25
Drawdown as % of equity-2.09%
 ($1,240)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
3/13/18 11:30 @ESM8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2788.50 3/13 14:11 2778.33 0.04%
Trade id #117019622
Max drawdown($25)
Time3/13/18 11:32
Quant open-1
Worst price2789.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
 $501
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
3/12/18 9:36 @ESM8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2797.00 3/12 10:54 2790.40 0.42%
Trade id #116989976
Max drawdown($262)
Time3/12/18 9:51
Quant open-1
Worst price2802.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.42%
 $322
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
3/8/18 11:32 @ESH8 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 2730.25 3/8 15:07 2738.92 0.67%
Trade id #116932633
Max drawdown($412)
Time3/8/18 13:46
Quant open1
Worst price2722.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.67%
 $425
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
3/7/18 11:16 @ESH8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2716.85 3/7 11:23 2712.31 0.07%
Trade id #116907632
Max drawdown($45)
Time3/7/18 11:18
Quant open-1
Worst price2717.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
 $219
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
3/6/18 14:46 @ESH8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2727.91 3/6 15:58 2724.44 0.21%
Trade id #116890431
Max drawdown($129)
Time3/6/18 14:50
Quant open-1
Worst price2730.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.21%
 $165
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
3/5/18 11:08 @ESH8 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2701.52 3/5 15:05 2726.70 2.03%
Trade id #116862964
Max drawdown($1,259)
Time3/5/18 15:05
Quant open0
Worst price2726.70
Drawdown as % of equity-2.03%
 ($1,267)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
3/1/18 13:02 @RTYH8 Russell 2000 CME SHORT 1 1508.09 3/1 13:47 1501.80 0.28%
Trade id #116805708
Max drawdown($175)
Time3/1/18 13:29
Quant open-1
Worst price1511.60
Drawdown as % of equity-0.28%
 $307
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
2/20/18 14:26 QNGH8 Natural Gas LONG 3 2.613 2/20 15:05 2.632 0.05%
Trade id #116621384
Max drawdown($30)
Time2/20/18 14:28
Quant open3
Worst price2.612
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
 $561
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
2/15/18 10:19 @WH8 WHEAT LONG 5 455 3/4 2/15 10:45 453 1/4 1.03%
Trade id #116530937
Max drawdown($643)
Time2/15/18 10:45
Quant open2
Worst price452 3/4
Drawdown as % of equity-1.03%
 ($683)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $40.00
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    12/5/2017
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $50,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    2569.52
  • Age
    86 months ago
  • What it trades
    Futures
  • # Trades
    50
  • # Profitable
    31
  • % Profitable
    62.00%
  • Avg trade duration
    2.4 hours
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    10.86%
  • drawdown period
    Feb 01, 2018 - July 09, 2018
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    1.6%
  • Avg win
    $627.42
  • Avg loss
    $649.89
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $57,102
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $57,102
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.58:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    -0.07
  • Sortino Ratio
    -0.14
  • Calmar Ratio
    0.807
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -117.97%
  • Correlation to SP500
    -0.01470
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    125.54%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    1.6%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    12.20%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    1.00%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.98%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.016%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    1.9%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    0
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    0
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $650
  • Avg Win
    $627
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $12,348.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    85
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $19,450.000
  • # Winners
    31
  • Num Months Winners
    3
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    19
  • % Winners
    62.0%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    146.52
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    2.44
  • Avg Trade Length
    0.1 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    2353
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    -0.00
  • Beta
    -0.00
  • Treynor Index
    0.29
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.01
  • MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    19.84
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    32.21
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.28
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.00
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.01
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    3.120
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.01
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.406
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.117
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.321
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.06035
  • SD
    0.14507
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.41602
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.39934
  • df
    19.00000
  • t
    0.53708
  • p
    0.42234
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.11322
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.93452
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.12414
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.92282
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.37576
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    3.24603
  • Upside part of mean
    0.14240
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.08205
  • Upside SD
    0.13554
  • Downside SD
    0.04387
  • N nonnegative terms
    2.00000
  • N negative terms
    18.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    20.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.47210
  • Mean of criterion
    0.06035
  • SD of predictor
    0.48892
  • SD of criterion
    0.14507
  • Covariance
    0.00016
  • r
    0.00221
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.00065
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.06004
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02221
  • DF error
    18.00000
  • t(b)
    0.00936
  • p(b)
    0.49890
  • t(a)
    0.50003
  • p(a)
    0.44148
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.14628
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.14759
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.19223
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.31232
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    92.17910
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.06004
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.05084
  • SD
    0.13702
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.37108
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.35620
  • df
    19.00000
  • t
    0.47906
  • p
    0.43059
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.15643
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.88896
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.16620
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.87860
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.14137
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    3.00088
  • Upside part of mean
    0.13368
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.08284
  • Upside SD
    0.12675
  • Downside SD
    0.04455
  • N nonnegative terms
    2.00000
  • N negative terms
    18.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    20.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.36911
  • Mean of criterion
    0.05084
  • SD of predictor
    0.43117
  • SD of criterion
    0.13702
  • Covariance
    0.00102
  • r
    0.01722
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.00547
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.04882
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01981
  • DF error
    18.00000
  • t(b)
    0.07306
  • p(b)
    0.49139
  • t(a)
    0.43409
  • p(a)
    0.44911
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.15187
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.16281
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.18748
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.28513
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    9.29253
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.04882
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.05901
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.07434
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02199
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03799
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    20.00000
  • Minimum
    0.95789
  • Quartile 1
    0.99933
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.15605
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98103
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.04840
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00067
  • Number outliers low
    5.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.25000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98103
  • Number of outliers high
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.10000
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.12099
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -6.24836
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00901
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00901
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.45287
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.02596
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.03302
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    1.00000
  • Minimum
    0.09172
  • Quartile 1
    0.09172
  • Median
    0.09172
  • Quartile 3
    0.09172
  • Maximum
    0.09172
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.08415
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.08194
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.89336
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    1.10223
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.04960
  • SD
    0.06504
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.76259
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.76133
  • df
    455.00000
  • t
    1.00605
  • p
    0.15746
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.72431
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.24865
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.72514
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.24780
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.66452
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.23816
  • Upside part of mean
    0.18588
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.13628
  • Upside SD
    0.05781
  • Downside SD
    0.02980
  • N nonnegative terms
    46.00000
  • N negative terms
    410.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    456.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.54346
  • Mean of criterion
    0.04960
  • SD of predictor
    0.41775
  • SD of criterion
    0.06504
  • Covariance
    -0.00051
  • r
    -0.01876
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.00292
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.05100
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00424
  • DF error
    454.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.39979
  • p(b)
    0.65525
  • t(a)
    1.03395
  • p(a)
    0.15085
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.01728
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.01144
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.04610
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.14847
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -16.98180
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.05119
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.04751
  • SD
    0.06441
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.73759
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.73637
  • df
    455.00000
  • t
    0.97307
  • p
    0.16552
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.74922
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.22363
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.75005
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.22279
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.58729
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.15530
  • Upside part of mean
    0.18422
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.13672
  • Upside SD
    0.05703
  • Downside SD
    0.02993
  • N nonnegative terms
    46.00000
  • N negative terms
    410.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    456.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.45090
  • Mean of criterion
    0.04751
  • SD of predictor
    0.43662
  • SD of criterion
    0.06441
  • Covariance
    -0.00048
  • r
    -0.01711
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.00252
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.04864
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00416
  • DF error
    454.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.36457
  • p(b)
    0.64220
  • t(a)
    0.99340
  • p(a)
    0.16052
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.01613
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.01108
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.04759
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.14487
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -18.82480
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.04864
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00634
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00799
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00170
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00364
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    456.00000
  • Minimum
    0.98621
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.03844
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99830
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00288
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    32.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.07018
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.99395
  • Number of outliers high
    46.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.10088
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.00714
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -9.92762
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00226
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00240
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.36318
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00170
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00420
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    4.00000
  • Minimum
    0.01023
  • Quartile 1
    0.01616
  • Median
    0.02586
  • Quartile 3
    0.04945
  • Maximum
    0.09705
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.01023
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.01814
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.03359
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.09705
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03329
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.08059
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.07833
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.80712
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.80712
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    9.79951
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.02791
  • SD
    0.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.00000
  • df
    0.00000
  • t
    0.00000
  • p
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.00000
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -16.18640
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upside part of mean
    0.00000
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.02791
  • Upside SD
    0.00000
  • Downside SD
    0.00172
  • N nonnegative terms
    0.00000
  • N negative terms
    131.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.95874
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.02791
  • SD of predictor
    0.48184
  • SD of criterion
    0.00000
  • Covariance
    0.00000
  • r
    0.00000
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.00000
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.00000
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00000
  • DF error
    0.00000
  • t(b)
    0.00000
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    0.00000
  • p(a)
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.00000
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.00000
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.00000
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.02791
  • SD
    0.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -9748420000000000.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -9692070000000000.00000
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -6893170000000000.00000
  • p
    1.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -10870200000000000.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -8513980000000000.00000
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -16.18640
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upside part of mean
    0.00000
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.02791
  • Upside SD
    0.00000
  • Downside SD
    0.00172
  • N nonnegative terms
    0.00000
  • N negative terms
    131.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.84248
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.02791
  • SD of predictor
    0.48033
  • SD of criterion
    0.00000
  • Covariance
    -0.00000
  • r
    -0.00000
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.00000
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.02791
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00000
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.00000
  • p(b)
    0.50000
  • t(a)
    -6826340000000000.00000
  • p(a)
    1.00000
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.00600
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.02791
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.02791
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    547931000000000064535807209242624.00000
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.02791
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00011
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00011
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00000
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    1.00000
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 1
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    0.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00000
  • Quartile 1
    0.00000
  • Median
    0.00000
  • Quartile 3
    0.00000
  • Maximum
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    n/a
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -425283000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    158
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.00000
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    0.00000

Strategy Description


Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2017-12-05
Suggested Minimum Capital
$60,000
# Trades
50
# Profitable
31
% Profitable
62.0%
Correlation S&P500
-0.015
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07
Sortino Ratio
-0.14
Beta
-0.00
Alpha
-0.00

Latest Activity

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subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.