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5355p

Futures · Started Dec 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.3%
Max Drawdown
10.9%
Trades
50
Win Trades
62.0%
Profit Factor
1.60
Win Months
2.8%

About this strategy


Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201716.216.2
20186.70.3-3.7-1.4-3.2-0.5-1.50.00.00.00.00.0-3.5
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/5/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age108 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades50
# Profitable31
% Profitable62.0%
Avg trade duration2.4 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown10.9%
drawdown periodFeb 01, 2018 - July 09, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)1.3%
Avg win$627
Avg loss$650

Ratios

W:L ratio1.58
Sharpe Ratio-0.17
Sortino Ratio-0.37
Calmar Ratio0.74

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life191.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-184.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity12.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$650
Avg Win$627
# Winners31
Sum Trade PL (losers)$12,348
Sum Trade PL (winners)$19,450
Num Months Winners3
# Losers19
% Winners62.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table107

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)146.52
Avg Position Time (hrs)2.44
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago3016

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0
Treynor Index0.76

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.12
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.28
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats32.21
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats19.84
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.41
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.12
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.32

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.05
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.36
df21
t0.51
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.82
Sortino ratio1.25
Upside Potential Ratio3.09
Upside part of mean0.13
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms20
N of observations22
Mean of predictor0.60
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error20
t(b)-0.05
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.49
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)-15.93
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.04
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.33
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.32
df21
t0.45
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.77
Sortino ratio1.03
Upside Potential Ratio2.86
Upside part of mean0.12
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms20
N of observations22
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error20
t(b)0.01
p(b)0.50
t(a)0.41
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)57.74
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.04
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.69
df495
t0.96
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.12
Sortino ratio1.52
Upside Potential Ratio5.98
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.03
N nonnegative terms46
N negative terms450
N of observations496
Mean of predictor0.63
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error494
t(b)-0.42
p(b)0.66
t(a)0.99
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)-15.52
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.04
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.67
df495
t0.92
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.09
Sortino ratio1.44
Upside Potential Ratio5.90
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.03
N nonnegative terms46
N negative terms450
N of observations496
Mean of predictor0.54
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error494
t(b)-0.38
p(b)0.65
t(a)0.95
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)-17.04
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.08
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.95
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6821774939389952
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.01693121753751e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations22
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.23
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations496
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low32
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high46
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-9.93
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.09
Quartile 10.09
Median0.09
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-533003840
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)158
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.81
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.04
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.74
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.74
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.35
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 118 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@ES U8short1Jul 9, 2018Jul 9, 2018($464)
@ES U8short1Jul 6, 2018Jul 6, 2018($333)
@ES U8short1Jun 18, 2018Jun 18, 2018($746)
@ES U8short1Jun 15, 2018Jun 15, 2018($33)
@ES U8short1Jun 14, 2018Jun 14, 2018$148
@ES U8short1Jun 12, 2018Jun 12, 2018$167
@ES U8short1Jun 11, 2018Jun 11, 2018$98
@ES M8short1Jun 7, 2018Jun 7, 2018$130
@ES M8short1May 23, 2018May 23, 2018($780)
@ES M8short1May 4, 2018May 4, 2018($1,060)
@ES M8short1Apr 24, 2018Apr 24, 2018$338
@ES M8long2Apr 11, 2018Apr 11, 2018($880)
@ES M8long1Apr 9, 2018Apr 9, 2018$381
@ES M8long1Apr 3, 2018Apr 3, 2018($653)
@ES M8short1Mar 28, 2018Mar 28, 2018($785)
@ES M8short1Mar 26, 2018Mar 26, 2018($829)
@ES M8short1Mar 22, 2018Mar 22, 2018$359
@ES M8long1Mar 20, 2018Mar 20, 2018$242
@ES M8long1Mar 20, 2018Mar 20, 2018($192)
@NQ M8long1Mar 16, 2018Mar 16, 2018($479)
@ES M8long1Mar 14, 2018Mar 14, 2018($1,240)
@ES M8short1Mar 13, 2018Mar 13, 2018$501
@ES M8short1Mar 12, 2018Mar 12, 2018$322
@ES H8long1Mar 8, 2018Mar 8, 2018$425
@ES H8short1Mar 7, 2018Mar 7, 2018$219
@ES H8short1Mar 6, 2018Mar 6, 2018$165
@ES H8short1Mar 5, 2018Mar 5, 2018($1,267)
@RTY H8short1Mar 1, 2018Mar 1, 2018$307
QNG H8long3Feb 20, 2018Feb 20, 2018$561
@W H8long5Feb 15, 2018Feb 15, 2018($683)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.