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2 and 3

Forex · Started Nov 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-15.4%
Max Drawdown
59.5%
Trades
24
Win Trades
91.7%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
2.8%

About this strategy

This system reflects the same logic utilized in the system "Freedom Forex" but is far more aggressive and enters higher probability trades.

I will be giving the first month for free to all new subscribers - if you are interested, please contact me for your coupon code. I want to make your first month's payment for you. If there are no entries and subsequent exits, your test period will be extended. Thereafter, I will be charging 38% of all monthly profits this system generates.

System will be rescaled after each "trade cycle" when all trades have closed.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2017-6.431.322.9
2018-18.982.110.9-23.8-26.4-23.90.00.00.00.00.00.0-30.1
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/28/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,378
Age108 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades24
# Profitable22
% Profitable91.7%
Avg trade duration8.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown59.5%
drawdown periodMarch 23, 2018 - June 19, 2018
Cumul. Return-15.0%
Avg win$1,195
Avg loss$13,995

Ratios

W:L ratio0.94
Sharpe Ratio0.01
Sortino Ratio0.01
Calmar Ratio-0.07

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life190.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-19.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-15.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-0.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity140.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss98.5%
Chance of 20% account loss91.5%
Chance of 30% account loss84.5%
Chance of 40% account loss63.0%
Chance of 50% account loss45.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)28.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)12.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.5%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)427
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)351

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$13,995
Avg Win$1,195
# Winners22
Sum Trade PL (losers)$27,990
Sum Trade PL (winners)$26,290
Num Months Winners3
# Losers2
% Winners91.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table107

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)12080.23
Avg Position Time (hrs)201.34
Avg Trade Length8.40
Last Trade Ago3042

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.04
Treynor Index-0.01

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.13
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat1.20
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades1.09
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.05
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-44.94
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.32
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats91.34
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats14.14
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.05
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.74
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.55
SD1.42
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.35
df8
t0.34
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.92
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.62
Sortino ratio0.94
Upside Potential Ratio3.12
Upside part of mean1.82
Downside part of mean-1.27
Upside SD1.21
Downside SD0.58
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms6
N of observations9
Mean of predictor0.00
Mean of criterion0.55
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion1.42
Covariance-0.12
r-0.51
b (slope, estimate of beta)-4.28
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.55
Mean Square Error1.71
DF error7
t(b)-1.55
p(b)0.92
t(a)0.37
p(a)0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-10.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.13
Jensen alpha (a)0.55
Mean-0.12
SD1.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.09
df8
t-0.09
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.17
Sortino ratio-0.18
Upside Potential Ratio1.98
Upside part of mean1.36
Downside part of mean-1.48
Upside SD0.85
Downside SD0.68
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms6
N of observations9
Mean of predictor-0.01
Mean of criterion-0.12
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion1.16
Covariance-0.10
r-0.53
b (slope, estimate of beta)-3.63
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.16
Mean Square Error1.11
DF error7
t(b)-1.66
p(b)0.93
t(a)-0.13
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-8.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.71
Treynor index (mean / b)0.03
Jensen alpha (a)-0.16
VaR(95%)0.43
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.50
VaR(95%)0.29
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.45
Mean0.27
SD0.88
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.31
df200
t0.27
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.55
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.93
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.55
Sortino ratio0.43
Upside Potential Ratio6.26
Upside part of mean3.93
Downside part of mean-3.66
Upside SD0.61
Downside SD0.63
N nonnegative terms77
N negative terms124
N of observations201
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion0.27
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.88
Covariance-0.02
r-0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.77
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.76
DF error199
t(b)-2.11
p(b)0.59
t(a)0.31
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.27
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.30
Mean-0.12
SD0.89
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.13
df200
t-0.12
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.11
Sortino ratio-0.17
Upside Potential Ratio5.53
Upside part of mean3.76
Downside part of mean-3.88
Upside SD0.57
Downside SD0.68
N nonnegative terms77
N negative terms124
N of observations201
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion-0.12
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.89
Covariance-0.02
r-0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.74
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.78
DF error199
t(b)-2.01
p(b)0.59
t(a)-0.10
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.89
Treynor index (mean / b)0.16
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean-1.19
SD0.84
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.40
df130
t-1.00
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.38
Sortino ratio-1.83
Upside Potential Ratio4.53
Upside part of mean2.95
Downside part of mean-4.13
Upside SD0.53
Downside SD0.65
N nonnegative terms30
N negative terms101
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.01
Mean of criterion-1.19
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.84
Covariance-0.01
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.19
Mean Square Error0.71
DF error129
t(b)-0.44
p(b)0.52
t(a)-1.00
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.17
Treynor index (mean / b)6.25
Jensen alpha (a)-1.19
Mean-1.55
SD0.86
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.80
df130
t-1.28
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.98
Sortino ratio-2.22
Upside Potential Ratio4.04
Upside part of mean2.81
Downside part of mean-4.36
Upside SD0.50
Downside SD0.70
N nonnegative terms30
N negative terms101
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.02
Mean of criterion-1.55
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.86
Covariance-0.01
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.55
Mean Square Error0.74
DF error129
t(b)-0.43
p(b)0.52
t(a)-1.28
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.05
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.85
Treynor index (mean / b)8.21
Jensen alpha (a)-1.55
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.69
Quartile 10.74
Median1
Quartile 31.10
Maximum2.02
Mean of quarter 10.72
Mean of quarter 20.96
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.64
Inter Quartile Range0.36
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high2.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.82
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.31
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.32
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.66
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.33
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.50
Number of observations201
Minimum0.77
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.23
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low24
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high23
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.72
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations131
Minimum0.83
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low26
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high24
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.21
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.28
Quartile 10.34
Median0.41
Quartile 30.47
Maximum0.54
Mean of quarter 10.28
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.54
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations8
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.05
Quartile 30.15
Maximum0.55
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.45
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.45
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.55
Quartile 10.55
Median0.55
Quartile 30.55
Maximum0.55
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-58
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)88
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.16
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.16
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.18
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.16
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.19
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.80
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.78
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.43
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-7.20

Trading record

Placed 9 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GBP/USD long1000May 4, 2018Jun 19, 2018($27,005)
GBP/CHF short1360Mar 19, 2018May 4, 2018($1,191)
EUR/CAD short210Mar 5, 2018Mar 8, 2018$1,371
GBP/JPY long427.70000458Feb 28, 2018Mar 5, 2018$21
USD/CHF long209.30000305Feb 22, 2018Feb 28, 2018$1,588
USD/CHF long347.43999481Feb 9, 2018Feb 22, 2018$3,626
USD/CHF long354.99000549Feb 6, 2018Feb 7, 2018$5,207
AUD/USD short862.85003662Dec 26, 2017Feb 4, 2018$4,097
EUR/JPY long82.48000145Jan 10, 2018Jan 11, 2018$6
USD/CAD long31.71999931Jan 5, 2018Jan 10, 2018$398
USD/CHF long82.48000145Dec 29, 2017Jan 3, 2018$508
USD/JPY short31.71999931Dec 21, 2017Dec 26, 2017$1
CHF/JPY short82.48000145Dec 20, 2017Dec 21, 2017$2
USD/CAD short25.38000107Dec 19, 2017Dec 20, 2017$62
EUR/AUD long690.27999878Dec 12, 2017Dec 19, 2017$1,831
AUD/USD long131.9699955Dec 8, 2017Dec 12, 2017$574
GBP/CHF short25.38000107Dec 8, 2017Dec 8, 2017$290
CHF/JPY long411.12998962Dec 5, 2017Dec 7, 2017$7
EUR/CAD long238.560009Dec 4, 2017Dec 6, 2017$583
EUR/AUD long25.38000107Dec 5, 2017Dec 5, 2017$145
EUR/GBP long131.9699955Dec 4, 2017Dec 5, 2017$363
EUR/CHF long65.9800005Dec 1, 2017Dec 3, 2017$224
GBP/JPY short131.9699955Nov 29, 2017Dec 1, 2017$4
USD/CAD short238.560009Nov 29, 2017Dec 1, 2017$609

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.