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Chubs 7500

Futures · Futures · Started Nov 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
56.6%
Max Drawdown
43.1%
Trades
98
Win Trades
60.2%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
8.5%

About this strategy

Chubs 7500 is a futures break-out trading strategy traded on the emini Dow Jones futures contract (YM). 10 years of research, trading and optmization has gone into this 100% automated strategy.
We almost always trade only 1 YM contract at most at any one time and we may hold this one contract overnight. Hard stoplosses are always in place to prevent large single trade losses.

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20170.910.511.5
201834.312.86.7-12.337.1-22.644.313.66.9-31.2-0.9-0.978.2
2019-0.9-0.9-0.9-0.9-0.90.00.00.00.00.00.0-4.4
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/26/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$7,500
Age108 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades98
# Profitable59
% Profitable60.2%
Avg trade duration1.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown43.1%
drawdown periodApril 09, 2018 - May 03, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)56.6%
Avg win$614
Avg loss$672

Ratios

W:L ratio1.38
Sharpe Ratio0.32
Sortino Ratio0.44
Calmar Ratio1.78

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.08
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life194.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)92.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)56.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.6%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)10.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity64.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss66.0%
Chance of 20% account loss35.0%
Chance of 30% account loss18.5%
Chance of 40% account loss5.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated47.2%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)719
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)355

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$672
Avg Win$614
# Winners59
Sum Trade PL (losers)$26,210
Sum Trade PL (winners)$36,252
Num Months Winners9
# Losers39
% Winners60.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table108

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2123.62
Avg Position Time (hrs)35.39
Avg Trade Length1.50
Last Trade Ago2906

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)9.31
Daily leverage (max)30.86

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.09
Treynor Index0.22

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.56
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.16
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats28.92
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats36.36
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.58
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.14
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.18

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.17
SD0.81
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.44
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.34
df11
t1.44
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.38
Sortino ratio3.01
Upside Potential Ratio4.69
Upside part of mean1.82
Downside part of mean-0.65
Upside SD0.75
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms3
N of observations12
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion1.17
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.81
Covariance0.05
r0.48
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.88
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.85
Mean Square Error0.56
DF error10
t(b)1.75
p(b)0.06
t(a)1.11
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta6.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.56
Treynor index (mean / b)0.41
Jensen alpha (a)0.85
Mean0.85
SD0.78
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.02
df11
t1.09
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.02
Sortino ratio1.90
Upside Potential Ratio3.56
Upside part of mean1.59
Downside part of mean-0.74
Upside SD0.64
Downside SD0.45
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms3
N of observations12
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.85
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.78
Covariance0.05
r0.50
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.86
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.56
Mean Square Error0.49
DF error10
t(b)1.85
p(b)0.05
t(a)0.78
p(a)0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta6.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.17
Treynor index (mean / b)0.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.56
VaR(95%)0.26
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.32
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
Mean0.96
SD0.53
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.80
df272
t1.84
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.72
Sortino ratio2.58
Upside Potential Ratio8.69
Upside part of mean3.23
Downside part of mean-2.27
Upside SD0.39
Downside SD0.37
N nonnegative terms201
N negative terms72
N of observations273
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.96
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.53
Covariance0.02
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.77
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.44
Mean Square Error0.27
DF error271
t(b)4.23
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.73
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.88
Treynor index (mean / b)1.25
Jensen alpha (a)0.88
Mean0.82
SD0.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.51
df272
t1.55
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.44
Sortino ratio2.10
Upside Potential Ratio8.12
Upside part of mean3.16
Downside part of mean-2.34
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms201
N negative terms72
N of observations273
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion0.82
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.54
Covariance0.02
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.78
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.74
Mean Square Error0.27
DF error271
t(b)4.28
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.45
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.75
Treynor index (mean / b)1.04
Jensen alpha (a)0.74
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.03
SD0.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.07
df130
t0.05
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.84
Sortino ratio0.09
Upside Potential Ratio5.79
Upside part of mean2.16
Downside part of mean-2.12
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.37
N nonnegative terms95
N negative terms36
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.49
Covariance0.03
r0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.84
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error129
t(b)3.90
p(b)0.30
t(a)-0.05
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.26
Treynor index (mean / b)0.04
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
Mean-0.09
SD0.50
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.18
df130
t-0.13
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.60
Sortino ratio-0.22
Upside Potential Ratio5.37
Upside part of mean2.11
Downside part of mean-2.20
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms95
N negative terms36
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion-0.09
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.50
Covariance0.03
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.86
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.14
Mean Square Error0.22
DF error129
t(b)3.94
p(b)0.30
t(a)-0.21
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.18
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.10
Jensen alpha (a)-0.14
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations12
Minimum0.72
Quartile 10.97
Median1.12
Quartile 31.21
Maximum1.44
Mean of quarter 10.78
Mean of quarter 21.05
Mean of quarter 31.15
Mean of quarter 41.40
Inter Quartile Range0.25
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-15.42
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.23
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.75
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.33
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.34
Number of observations273
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low28
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high15
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.51
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations131
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low22
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high22
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.31
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.14
Quartile 10.18
Median0.23
Quartile 30.25
Maximum0.28
Mean of quarter 10.14
Mean of quarter 20.23
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations19
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.31
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.24
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high0.31
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-10.98
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.22
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.61
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.33
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.34
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.31
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.31
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-33
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)24
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.34
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.34
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.76
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.76
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.16
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.28
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.26
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.01
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.33
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal19.91
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.27
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.30
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.37

Trading record

Placed 194 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@YM Z8long1Sep 26, 2018Oct 22, 2018($6,457)
@YM U8long2Sep 4, 2018Sep 13, 2018$1,270
@YM U8long1Aug 20, 2018Aug 27, 2018$1,752
@YM U8long1Jun 15, 2018Aug 7, 2018$2,521
@YM U8short1Jun 13, 2018Jun 15, 2018$949
@YM M8short1Jun 6, 2018Jun 13, 2018($1,158)
@YM M8long1Jun 6, 2018Jun 6, 2018$487
@YM M8long1Jun 4, 2018Jun 5, 2018$211
@YM M8long1May 23, 2018May 23, 2018$852
@YM M8long1May 22, 2018May 22, 2018($546)
@YM M8long1May 17, 2018May 18, 2018$209
@YM M8short1May 17, 2018May 17, 2018$268
@YM M8long1Apr 29, 2018May 13, 2018$2,800
@YM M8long1Apr 24, 2018Apr 27, 2018$2,018
@YM M8long1Apr 19, 2018Apr 19, 2018($561)
@YM M8short1Apr 16, 2018Apr 17, 2018($1,593)
@YM M8long1Apr 13, 2018Apr 13, 2018($554)
@YM M8long1Apr 12, 2018Apr 12, 2018($641)
@YM M8short1Apr 12, 2018Apr 12, 2018($409)
@YM M8long1Apr 11, 2018Apr 11, 2018$19
@YM M8long1Apr 9, 2018Apr 9, 2018$17
@YM M8long1Apr 2, 2018Apr 2, 2018$1,117
@YM M8short1Mar 27, 2018Mar 27, 2018$511
@YM M8long1Mar 26, 2018Mar 26, 2018$1,506
@YM M8short1Mar 26, 2018Mar 26, 2018$619
@YM M8long1Mar 23, 2018Mar 23, 2018($558)
@YM M8short1Mar 23, 2018Mar 23, 2018($590)
@YM M8short1Mar 21, 2018Mar 21, 2018($15)
@YM M8long1Mar 21, 2018Mar 21, 2018$433
@YM M8short1Mar 21, 2018Mar 21, 2018($101)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.