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AfterEarningsQuant

Equity · Stocks · Started Oct 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
4.5%
Max Drawdown
41.3%
Trades
2230
Win Trades
51.5%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
11.9%

About this strategy

Trading System “AfterEarningsQuant”
is an automated intraday system that buys and sells stocks the day after earning releases.
Specifically , it opens positions at the start of the trading day and close them at the end.
I create this system after quantitative analysis of earnings releases the last five years.
To open a position the system takes into consideration the stock’s earning announcements, the consensus analyst estimates of the stock’s earnings and revenues, the stock’s price movement etc.

Characteristics of the system:
-Full automated intraday trading system.
-Open the positions at the start of the trading day and close them at the end.
-Both takes long and short positions.
-Trade stocks with capitalization over 250 million dollars
-Full margin can be used.
-Every stock’s position size is maximum $6,000.
-The return target is 7% per month based on the hypothetical performance of 5-year backtesting. Backtesting data is hypothetical and it has not been verified by C2

Suggested minimum investment horizon: 3-6 months

I'm available to answer any questions or concerns

Event-driven

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201710.221.5-2.031.1
2018-9.714.610.2-12.69.23.77.04.20.410.3-0.6-2.435.1
2019-10.1-14.8-7.318.612.7-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-8.8
2020-0.6-0.6-3.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-1.30.40.00.00.0-7.8
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/15/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age110 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades2230
# Profitable1148
% Profitable51.5%
Avg trade duration6.3 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown41.3%
drawdown periodNov 01, 2018 - March 13, 2019
Annual Return (Compounded)4.5%
Avg win$211
Avg loss$198

Ratios

W:L ratio1.13
Sharpe Ratio0.23
Sortino Ratio0.37
Calmar Ratio0.69

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life198.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-153.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)4.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)8.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity32.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss35.5%
Chance of 20% account loss7.5%
Chance of 30% account loss1.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.1%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$198
Avg Win$211
# Winners1148
Sum Trade PL (losers)$214,592
Sum Trade PL (winners)$242,643
Num Months Winners13
# Losers1082
% Winners51.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table109

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)380.17
Avg Position Time (hrs)6.34
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago2220

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.01
Daily leverage (max)2.95

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.01
Treynor Index0.64

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-8.52
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.08
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats56.96
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.76
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.59
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.55
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.21
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.77
df50
t1.62
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.73
Sortino ratio2.47
Upside Potential Ratio3.68
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms41
N negative terms10
N of observations51
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance-0.01
r-0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.25
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error49
t(b)-0.99
p(b)0.84
t(a)1.85
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.53
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.25
Mean0.18
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.72
df50
t1.50
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.68
Sortino ratio2.00
Upside Potential Ratio3.21
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms41
N negative terms10
N of observations51
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance-0.01
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error49
t(b)-0.93
p(b)0.82
t(a)1.70
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.46
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.31
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.18
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.25
df1132
t2.60
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.19
Sortino ratio2.14
Upside Potential Ratio6.19
Upside part of mean0.53
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms974
N negative terms159
N of observations1133
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1131
t(b)0.45
p(b)0.49
t(a)2.57
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)25.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.17
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.19
df1132
t2.47
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.13
Sortino ratio1.99
Upside Potential Ratio6.02
Upside part of mean0.53
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms974
N negative terms159
N of observations1133
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1131
t(b)0.47
p(b)0.49
t(a)2.43
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)23.06
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.32
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.25
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations51
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.32
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.24
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-21.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.50
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations1133
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low159
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high192
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.08
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30.10
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations17
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.28
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-4.16
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.64
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.26
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-735833344
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)132
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.19
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.94
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.94
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.59
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.19
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.69
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.08
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.64
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 2169 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
WB long366Sep 28, 2020Sep 28, 2020$149
SINA short300Sep 28, 2020Sep 28, 2020$15
HIBB long204Aug 28, 2020Aug 28, 2020($12)
URBN long265Mar 4, 2020Mar 4, 2020$67
CYTK short407Mar 4, 2020Mar 4, 2020($93)
ANF long475Mar 4, 2020Mar 4, 2020($62)
AMAG long718Mar 4, 2020Mar 4, 2020($41)
TAC long775Mar 4, 2020Mar 4, 2020($36)
CDLX long70Mar 4, 2020Mar 4, 2020($228)
YEXT long421Mar 4, 2020Mar 4, 2020($185)
MAXR short392Mar 4, 2020Mar 4, 2020($565)
VYGR long525Mar 4, 2020Mar 4, 2020($84)
TSE long166May 3, 2019May 3, 2019$508
CARB long283May 3, 2019May 3, 2019($399)
OR short693May 3, 2019May 3, 2019$161
CBLK long505May 3, 2019May 3, 2019$480
SRCL short122May 3, 2019May 3, 2019($363)
LOCO short530May 3, 2019May 3, 2019$260
WAIR long838May 3, 2019May 3, 2019$1,160
REGI short307May 3, 2019May 3, 2019$780
NBL short274May 3, 2019May 3, 2019$88
X long494May 3, 2019May 3, 2019$884
CC short206May 3, 2019May 3, 2019($152)
FLDM short515May 3, 2019May 3, 2019$850
GPOR long1119May 3, 2019May 3, 2019$476
PCTY short73May 3, 2019May 3, 2019($143)
ACCO long780May 2, 2019May 2, 2019($738)
BERY short119May 2, 2019May 2, 2019$112
WTI short1127May 2, 2019May 2, 2019$435
MNTA short500May 2, 2019May 2, 2019($425)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.