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Greed and Fear ES Daily

Futures · Futures · Started Jul 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
9.9%
Max Drawdown
44.2%
Trades
115
Win Trades
48.7%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
20.5%

About this strategy

For questions, special deals, discounts, etc contact me at [email protected]

Important characteristics of the strategy:
1.) Exactly one E-mini S&P future is traded.
2.) There is *always* an automatic stop-loss order and profit-target order.
3.) There is *never* more than one trade per day to prevent impulsive or revenge trades.
4.) The position is *always* closed at the end of the trading session.

Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2017-0.3-1.010.8-6.112.56.523.0
201810.2-9.826.9-18.3-7.714.4-2.6-10.0-5.6-0.519.5-0.36.8
201927.2-0.26.16.4-7.3-0.27.1-0.2-0.29.23.2-0.259.1
2020-7.5-4.2-0.231.16.8-10.011.62.09.1-0.1-2.6-5.727.1
2021-5.9-0.1-1.48.02.02.5-2.7-2.27.4-0.1-0.1-0.16.6
20225.0-4.6-0.1-3.7-0.1-0.1-8.4-4.00.00.00.00.0-15.5
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/27/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age112 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades115
# Profitable56
% Profitable48.7%
Avg trade duration1.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown44.1%
drawdown periodMarch 13, 2018 - Oct 15, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)9.9%
Avg win$1,058
Avg loss$717

Ratios

W:L ratio1.40
Sharpe Ratio0.40
Sortino Ratio0.75
Calmar Ratio0.41

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life209.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-73.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)9.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)11.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity26.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss53.0%
Chance of 20% account loss31.5%
Chance of 30% account loss18.0%
Chance of 40% account loss2.0%
Chance of 50% account loss1.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated1.5%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$717
Avg Win$1,058
# Winners56
Sum Trade PL (losers)$42,323
Sum Trade PL (winners)$59,237
Num Months Winners23
# Losers59
% Winners48.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table112

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1438.78
Avg Position Time (hrs)23.98
Avg Trade Length1
Last Trade Ago1512

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)10.87
Daily leverage (max)15.29

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.06
Treynor Index0.41

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.32
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.37
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats4.19
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats73.58
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.34
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.06
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.19

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.14
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.56
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.56
df85
t1.50
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.29
Sortino ratio1.34
Upside Potential Ratio2.82
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms64
N of observations86
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error84
t(b)-0.40
p(b)0.66
t(a)1.55
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.98
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean0.11
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.47
df85
t1.28
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.21
Sortino ratio1.01
Upside Potential Ratio2.47
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms64
N of observations86
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error84
t(b)-0.40
p(b)0.65
t(a)1.33
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.74
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.13
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.62
df1883
t1.67
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.35
Sortino ratio1.19
Upside Potential Ratio4.96
Upside part of mean0.55
Downside part of mean-0.42
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms135
N negative terms1749
N of observations1884
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error1882
t(b)2.46
p(b)0.47
t(a)1.56
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)2.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
Mean0.11
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.53
df1883
t1.43
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.26
Sortino ratio0.97
Upside Potential Ratio4.72
Upside part of mean0.53
Downside part of mean-0.42
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms135
N negative terms1749
N of observations1884
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error1882
t(b)2.41
p(b)0.47
t(a)1.33
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)2.00
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6837631958646784
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.50109698636371e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations86
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.29
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low18
Percentage of outliers low0.21
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high19
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations1884
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low151
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high135
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.01
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.07
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.25
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.11
Mean of quarter 40.19
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.25
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.36
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations18
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.07
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.19
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high0.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.30
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.35
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-380902528
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)216
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.24
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.59
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.77
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.24
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.24
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.41
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.76
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.78
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 41 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@ES U2long1Aug 19, 2022Aug 19, 2022($958)
@ES U2long1Jul 26, 2022Jul 26, 2022($958)
@ES U2short1Jul 19, 2022Jul 19, 2022($1,008)
@ES U2long1Jul 11, 2022Jul 11, 2022($296)
@ES M2long1Apr 26, 2022Apr 26, 2022($1,008)
@ES H2long1Feb 17, 2022Feb 17, 2022($608)
@ES H2short1Feb 8, 2022Feb 8, 2022($733)
@ES H2short1Jan 27, 2022Jan 27, 2022($646)
@ES H2short1Jan 24, 2022Jan 24, 2022$2,092
@ES U1long1Sep 9, 2021Sep 9, 2021$1,992
@ES U1long1Aug 26, 2021Aug 26, 2021($558)
@ES U1long1Jul 8, 2021Jul 8, 2021($708)
@ES M1long1Jun 3, 2021Jun 3, 2021$717
@ES M1long1May 17, 2021May 17, 2021$567
@ES M1long1Apr 13, 2021Apr 14, 2021$1,992
@ES M1short1Mar 31, 2021Mar 31, 2021($308)
@ES M1long1Mar 30, 2021Mar 30, 2021$5
@ES M1long1Mar 18, 2021Mar 18, 2021($208)
@ES H1long1Mar 3, 2021Mar 3, 2021$192
@ES H1long1Jan 27, 2021Jan 27, 2021($758)
@ES H1long1Jan 25, 2021Jan 25, 2021($771)
@ES H1long1Dec 21, 2020Dec 21, 2020($658)
@ES Z0long1Dec 9, 2020Dec 9, 2020($708)
@ES Z0long1Dec 7, 2020Dec 7, 2020$242
@ES Z0short1Dec 4, 2020Dec 4, 2020($458)
@ES Z0long1Nov 30, 2020Nov 30, 2020($708)
@ES Z0long1Sep 30, 2020Sep 30, 2020$2,442
@ES U0long1Aug 21, 2020Aug 21, 2020$1,280
@ES U0long1Aug 11, 2020Aug 11, 2020($733)
@ES U0long1Jul 1, 2020Jul 2, 2020$2,742

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.