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DRIVER Conservative

Futures · Futures · Started Jul 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
3.0%
Max Drawdown
17.2%
Trades
283
Win Trades
47.0%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
9.9%

About this strategy

Recommended capital $ 30,000

Smart Bull Portfolio trades major US indices such as ES, NQ, YM ...
It is an intraday trading system that consists of trading different time frames and different input conditions.
Smart Bull is a simple, proven trend system based on strong fundamental logic.
Smart Bull is based on simplicity and the associated robustness of the system (idea first).

Trend-following Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2017-0.110.1-0.77.50.91.920.8
201810.24.87.3-3.0-3.0-1.63.71.0-0.5-0.73.2-15.53.4
20194.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.04.9
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/26/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age112 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades283
# Profitable133
% Profitable47.0%
Avg trade duration3.1 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown17.2%
drawdown periodMarch 29, 2018 - Jan 04, 2019
Annual Return (Compounded)3.0%
Avg win$607
Avg loss$412

Ratios

W:L ratio1.30
Sharpe Ratio0.17
Sortino Ratio0.31
Calmar Ratio0.85

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life215.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-181.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)3.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity15.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss9.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$412
Avg Win$607
# Winners133
Sum Trade PL (losers)$61,865
Sum Trade PL (winners)$80,724
Num Months Winners11
# Losers150
% Winners47.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table111

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)186
Avg Position Time (hrs)3.10
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago2798

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)4.48
Daily leverage (max)13.83

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.02
Treynor Index0.20

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades8.11
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.01
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats28.20
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats47.01
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.36
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.06
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.10
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.69
df31
t1.15
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.90
Sortino ratio1.08
Upside Potential Ratio2.12
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms19
N of observations32
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error30
t(b)0.54
p(b)0.30
t(a)0.83
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)2.09
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.09
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.60
df31
t1.01
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.81
Sortino ratio0.90
Upside Potential Ratio1.91
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms19
N of observations32
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.01
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error30
t(b)0.77
p(b)0.22
t(a)0.63
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)1.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.10
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.91
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.91
df703
t1.50
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.11
Sortino ratio1.71
Upside Potential Ratio6.81
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms99
N negative terms605
N of observations704
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error702
t(b)1.11
p(b)0.13
t(a)1.40
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)7.45
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.09
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.87
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.87
df703
t1.42
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.06
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.06
Sortino ratio1.60
Upside Potential Ratio6.68
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms99
N negative terms605
N of observations704
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error702
t(b)1.12
p(b)0.13
t(a)1.34
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)6.92
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.08
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.95
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6819632824451072
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.10520046786202e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations32
Minimum0.85
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.85
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations704
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low121
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high99
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.07
Quartile 10.09
Median0.11
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.07
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high0.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-5.51
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.41
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.21
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-473564512
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)281
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.87
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.87
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.64
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.85
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.76
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 657 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@ES H9long1Jan 30, 2019Jan 30, 2019$955
@YM H9long1Jan 30, 2019Jan 30, 2019$212
@NQ H9long1Jan 30, 2019Jan 30, 2019($503)
@NQ H9long1Jan 25, 2019Jan 25, 2019$797
@ES H9long1Jan 25, 2019Jan 25, 2019$255
@YM H9long1Jan 25, 2019Jan 25, 2019$277
@YM H9long1Jan 18, 2019Jan 18, 2019$155
@ES H9long1Jan 18, 2019Jan 18, 2019$161
@NQ H9long1Jan 18, 2019Jan 18, 2019($228)
@ES H9long1Jan 17, 2019Jan 17, 2019$261
@YM H9long1Jan 17, 2019Jan 17, 2019($618)
@NQ H9long1Jan 17, 2019Jan 17, 2019($791)
@ES H9long1Jan 16, 2019Jan 16, 2019$30
@YM H9long1Jan 16, 2019Jan 16, 2019$62
@ES H9long1Jan 15, 2019Jan 15, 2019$192
@NQ H9long1Jan 15, 2019Jan 15, 2019$835
@YM H9long1Jan 15, 2019Jan 15, 2019($318)
@ES H9long1Jan 9, 2019Jan 9, 2019($527)
@NQ H9long1Jan 9, 2019Jan 9, 2019($493)
@YM H9long1Jan 9, 2019Jan 9, 2019($261)
@NQ H9long1Jan 8, 2019Jan 8, 2019($396)
@YM H9long1Jan 8, 2019Jan 8, 2019($818)
@ES H9long1Jan 7, 2019Jan 7, 2019($679)
@YM H9long1Jan 7, 2019Jan 7, 2019($616)
@NQ H9long1Jan 7, 2019Jan 7, 2019($336)
@ES H9long1Jan 4, 2019Jan 4, 2019$1,505
@YM H9long1Jan 4, 2019Jan 4, 2019$1,405
@NQ H9long1Jan 4, 2019Jan 4, 2019$2,575
@YM H9long1Dec 31, 2018Dec 31, 2018($641)
@ES H9long1Dec 28, 2018Dec 28, 2018($600)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.