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TheEverhum

Forex · Started Jul 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-96.2%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
218
Win Trades
94.5%
Profit Factor
0.50
Win Months
8.9%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20171.08.111.41.115.211.758.4
20181.514.94.2-4.2-5.9-4.4-8.7-14.88.9-18.9-55.1-101.8-100.6
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/20/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$36,450
Age112 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades218
# Profitable206
% Profitable94.5%
Avg trade duration4.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodDec 10, 2018 - Dec 11, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)-96.2%
Avg win$190
Avg loss$6,267

Ratios

W:L ratio0.52
Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Sortino Ratio-0.77
Calmar Ratio-0.87

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life208.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-102.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-96.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-1.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-39.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity—
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)945
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)713
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)542

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$6,267
Avg Win$190
# Winners206
Sum Trade PL (losers)$75,201
Sum Trade PL (winners)$39,109
Num Months Winners10
# Losers12
% Winners94.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table18

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)6337.95
Avg Position Time (hrs)105.63
Avg Trade Length4.40
Last Trade Ago2857

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.23
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.53
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades10.18
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-4.37
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.55
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats4.25
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats31.13
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.12
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.23

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.03
SD0.66
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.05
df15
t-0.06
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.65
Sortino ratio-0.07
Upside Potential Ratio1.65
Upside part of mean0.80
Downside part of mean-0.83
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.48
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms7
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.66
Covariance0.03
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.76
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.42
DF error14
t(b)1.30
p(b)0.34
t(a)-0.14
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.13
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.02
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
Mean-0.26
SD0.70
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.34
df15
t-0.42
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.36
Sortino ratio-0.44
Upside Potential Ratio1.25
Upside part of mean0.72
Downside part of mean-0.98
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.58
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms7
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.02
Mean of criterion-0.26
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.70
Covariance0.03
r0.36
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.29
Mean Square Error0.46
DF error14
t(b)1.45
p(b)0.32
t(a)-0.50
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.97
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.29
VaR(95%)0.30
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.35
VaR(95%)0.15
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.29
Mean1744.07
SD2059.82
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.84
df364
t1.00
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.51
Sortino ratio1161.28
Upside Potential Ratio1165.22
Upside part of mean1749.99
Downside part of mean-5.92
Upside SD2059.82
Downside SD1.50
N nonnegative terms204
N negative terms161
N of observations365
Mean of predictor0.00
Mean of criterion1744.07
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion2059.82
Covariance9.30
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)488.89
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1037.73
Mean Square Error4249997
DF error363
t(b)0.62
p(b)0.27
t(a)1.00
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1051.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2029.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1691.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha5177.68
Treynor index (mean / b)3.57
Jensen alpha (a)1742.91
Mean-2.94
SD9.86
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.30
df364
t-0.35
p0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.96
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.36
Sortino ratio-0.41
Upside Potential Ratio1.35
Upside part of mean9.75
Downside part of mean-12.69
Upside SD6.68
Downside SD7.24
N nonnegative terms204
N negative terms161
N of observations365
Mean of predictor-0.01
Mean of criterion-2.94
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion9.86
Covariance0.07
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)3.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.91
Mean Square Error97.33
DF error363
t(b)0.94
p(b)0.17
t(a)-0.35
p(a)0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta10.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-19.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha13.53
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.84
Jensen alpha (a)-2.91
VaR(95%)0.64
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.71
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
Mean4858.27
SD3438.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.40
df130
t1.00
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.18
Sortino ratio1949.06
Upside Potential Ratio1954.81
Upside part of mean4872.60
Downside part of mean-14.33
Upside SD3438.27
Downside SD2.49
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms67
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.19
Mean of criterion4858.27
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion3438.29
Covariance29.68
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)1265.94
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)5100.86
Mean Square Error11875629
DF error129
t(b)0.64
p(b)0.46
t(a)1.04
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2639.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5171.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4570.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha14772.25
Treynor index (mean / b)3.84
Jensen alpha (a)5100.86
Mean-9.27
SD16.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.56
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.56
df130
t-0.40
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.21
Sortino ratio-0.77
Upside Potential Ratio1.98
Upside part of mean23.89
Downside part of mean-33.16
Upside SD11.15
Downside SD12.08
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms67
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.20
Mean of criterion-9.27
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion16.49
Covariance0.19
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)7.88
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-7.66
Mean Square Error272.65
DF error129
t(b)0.84
p(b)0.45
t(a)-0.33
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-10.75
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta26.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-54.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha38.69
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.18
Jensen alpha (a)-7.66
VaR(95%)0.82
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.87
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.27

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations16
Minimum0.64
Quartile 10.95
Median1.02
Quartile 31.11
Maximum1.41
Mean of quarter 10.75
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.21
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.67
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.41
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-97.74
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.76
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.28
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.29
Number of observations365
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum2432.22
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 427.79
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low43
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.84
Number of outliers high31
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high79.58
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.82
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.39
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.49
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations131
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.94
Median1.00
Quartile 31.03
Maximum2432.22
Mean of quarter 10.81
Mean of quarter 20.97
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 474.81
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.36
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high348.73
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.81
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.77
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.44

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.61
Quartile 10.61
Median0.61
Quartile 30.61
Maximum0.61
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations29
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.29
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.29
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.08
Quartile 10.12
Median0.15
Quartile 30.58
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.08
Mean of quarter 20.15
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.46
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-98
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.20
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.33
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.57
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.71
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.95
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.95
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-4.43
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.33
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.98
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.14

Trading record

Placed 289 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@YM Z8long1Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018$2
@YM Z8short1Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018$7
@YM Z8long1Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018$47
@YM Z8short1Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018($53)
@YM Z8long1Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018($78)
@YM Z8short1Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018($58)
@YM Z8long1Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018($73)
@YM Z8short1Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018$22
@YM Z8long1Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018$122
@YM Z8short1Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018($233)
@YM Z8long1Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018($98)
@YM Z8short1Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018($88)
@YM Z8long1Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018($88)
@YM Z8short1Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018($188)
@YM Z8long1Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018($18)
AUD/USD short10Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018($0)
GBP/USD long1790Apr 22, 2018Dec 16, 2018($74,305)
NZD/USD long90Apr 23, 2018Jun 4, 2018$622
USD/CHF short220Apr 19, 2018May 29, 2018$1,442
USD/CAD long30Apr 10, 2018Apr 19, 2018$190
GBP/JPY short60Apr 10, 2018Apr 19, 2018$2
NZD/USD short20Apr 10, 2018Apr 16, 2018$72
USD/JPY short10Apr 5, 2018Apr 6, 2018$0
NZD/USD short10Apr 4, 2018Apr 5, 2018$15
USD/CHF short60Mar 28, 2018Mar 30, 2018$68
USD/JPY short20Mar 28, 2018Mar 29, 2018$0
EUR/USD short20Mar 26, 2018Mar 27, 2018$144
USD/JPY long20Mar 23, 2018Mar 26, 2018$0
EUR/AUD short10Mar 22, 2018Mar 22, 2018$28
GBP/USD short30Mar 21, 2018Mar 22, 2018$160

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.