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Small Stock Portfolio

Stocks · Started Jul 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-43.5%
Max Drawdown
10.8%
Trades
19
Win Trades
42.1%
Profit Factor
2.80
Win Months
5.4%

About this strategy

Buying options on the S&P 500 is like car insurance for your investments. The vast majority of the time the person selling you the options (the insurer) will be the one reaping a net profit. XIV allows you to have the benefit and risk of being an the insurer.

I maintain three strategies on Collective2. My "Small Stock Portfolio" holds company stocks that I expect to outperform based on technical and fundamental analysis, and "Simple Volatility" trades XIV, gold, and holds cash depending on two proprietary signals. My third strategy "Stock and Volatility" holds a blend of the first two strategies and is the one I would recommend to a friend because its asset allocation gives more protection - though it does reduce overall returns.

Any of my strategies could easily experience a draw down of 50% or more and should be used with caution.
All my strategies follow what I do in several of my accounts at Interactive Brokers. All three of these strategies are led by IRA accounts. So, I do not open positions that require margin or that would make it possible for me to lose more money than I put in to the account. I do my best to make sure the money in these accounts matches the dollar amount in the simulated Collective2 account but any use of margin shown on Collective2 will actually just be a discrepancy between the simulated and actual account balance.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2017-6.01.87.812.11.68.828.0
20182.6-12.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-9.9
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/19/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age112 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades19
# Profitable8
% Profitable42.1%
Avg trade duration64.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown10.8%
drawdown periodJuly 27, 2017 - Aug 10, 2017
Cumul. Return-4.7%
Avg win$330
Avg loss$87

Ratios

W:L ratio2.76
Sharpe Ratio-0.01
Sortino Ratio-0.02
Calmar Ratio0.86

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.08
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life208.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-4.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-43.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity15.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss12.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)348
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$87
Avg Win$330
# Winners8
Sum Trade PL (losers)$956
Sum Trade PL (winners)$2,639
Num Months Winners6
# Losers11
% Winners42.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table112

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)93316.73
Avg Position Time (hrs)1555.28
Avg Trade Length64.80
Last Trade Ago3164

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.03
Treynor Index-0.01

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-2.34
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.80
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats66.26
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats25.15
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.94
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.34
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.40

RATIO STATISTICS

a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Max Equity Drawdown (num days)14
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

Trading record

Placed 62 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ZAGG long203Aug 14, 2017Feb 15, 2018$276
YRCW long263Aug 7, 2017Feb 15, 2018($361)
LGIH long126Jul 20, 2017Feb 15, 2018$845
KEM long108Aug 14, 2017Feb 15, 2018$44
CROX long268Aug 14, 2017Feb 15, 2018$238
CONN long268Jul 20, 2017Feb 15, 2018$1,051
GLD long7Aug 15, 2017Aug 15, 2017($0)
CLUB long453Aug 7, 2017Aug 15, 2017($64)
HTHIY long31Jul 31, 2017Aug 14, 2017($92)
AFLYY long194Jul 24, 2017Jul 31, 2017($111)
TLRD long220Jul 21, 2017Jul 31, 2017$139
LAKE long204Jul 20, 2017Jul 31, 2017($146)
MIXT long270Jul 20, 2017Jul 24, 2017($7)
VSH long112Jul 20, 2017Jul 24, 2017($10)
SDLP long278Jul 20, 2017Jul 21, 2017$8
SNX long1Jul 20, 2017Jul 21, 2017($1)
BIOS long527Jul 20, 2017Jul 21, 2017($8)
SORL long216Jul 20, 2017Jul 21, 2017($198)
SRT long36Jul 20, 2017Jul 21, 2017$8

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.