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spy R futures

Futures · Options · Started Apr 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
5.1%
Max Drawdown
36.4%
Trades
168
Win Trades
50.6%
Profit Factor
3.20
Win Months
6.1%

About this strategy

Greetings. If you look at the trade history, the strategy used to trade options. Specifically, we predominantly sold puts on SPY and individual stock names. The strategy has evolved into trading futures with Artificial Intelligence tool analyzing market conditions and generating signals. Trades can happen any time futures market is open. We typically hold 4 E-mini S&P 500 futures contracts, but in rare occasions when strong signals are generated, we may trade 8 contracts. If you follow us, please make sure you scale according to your risk appetite. We will never trade more than 8 contracts. Trades can be both, Long and Short. We attempt to achieve 5% monthly return over a 12-month period. The strategy's subscription fee is 69 dollars per month with a 30-day free trial.

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20172.50.80.51.0-4.2-3.2-0.6-0.2-0.2-3.8
2018-0.252.32.66.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.066.3
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/9/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age116 months
What it tradesOptions
# Trades168
# Profitable85
% Profitable50.6%
Avg trade duration25.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown36.4%
drawdown periodFeb 08, 2018 - Feb 09, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)5.1%
Avg win$570
Avg loss$180

Ratios

W:L ratio3.24
Sharpe Ratio0.23
Sortino Ratio0.61
Calmar Ratio1.52

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life225.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-170.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)5.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)5.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity4.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.1%
Percent Trades Options0.9%
Short Options - Percent Covered0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss61.0%
Chance of 20% account loss33.0%
Chance of 30% account loss9.0%
Chance of 40% account loss5.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$180
Avg Win$570
# Winners85
Sum Trade PL (losers)$14,957
Sum Trade PL (winners)$48,461
Num Months Winners7
# Losers83
% Winners50.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table115

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)36787.90
Avg Position Time (hrs)613.13
Avg Trade Length25.50
Last Trade Ago3086

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.03
Treynor Index0.34

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.40
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.10
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats4.69
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats25.21
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.66
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.11
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.29

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.26
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df25
t1.06
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.06
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.04
Sortino ratio11.01
Upside Potential Ratio12.81
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms20
N of observations26
Mean of predictor0.57
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance-0.02
r-0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.36
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error24
t(b)-0.92
p(b)0.82
t(a)1.35
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.91
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.41
Jensen alpha (a)0.36
Mean0.21
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df25
t1.07
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.06
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.05
Sortino ratio8.84
Upside Potential Ratio10.63
Upside part of mean0.25
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms20
N of observations26
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance-0.02
r-0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error24
t(b)-0.92
p(b)0.82
t(a)1.34
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.73
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.34
Jensen alpha (a)0.29
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.25
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.76
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.76
df573
t1.12
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.08
Sortino ratio2.45
Upside Potential Ratio5.20
Upside part of mean0.54
Downside part of mean-0.28
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms78
N negative terms496
N of observations574
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.01
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error572
t(b)1.06
p(b)0.14
t(a)1.02
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.68
Treynor index (mean / b)6.62
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
Mean0.21
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df573
t1.03
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.02
Sortino ratio1.94
Upside Potential Ratio4.65
Upside part of mean0.49
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms78
N negative terms496
N of observations574
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.01
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error572
t(b)1.15
p(b)0.12
t(a)0.93
p(a)0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58
Treynor index (mean / b)5.56
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.18
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.05
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6809381811257344
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)8.33168850358928e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations26
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.52
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.74
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations574
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.41
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low68
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high81
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.31
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.85
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.04
Median0.04
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.04
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations15
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.74
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-471803136
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.31
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.27
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)6.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.87
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.31
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.26
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.52
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.37
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.29
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 270 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@ES M8long8Apr 24, 2018Apr 25, 2018$5,086
@ES H8long4Feb 27, 2018Mar 5, 2018($8,332)
@ES H8long8Feb 18, 2018Feb 23, 2018$5,486
@ES H8long4Feb 15, 2018Feb 15, 2018$1,018
@ES H8long4Feb 14, 2018Feb 14, 2018$968
@ES H8long4Feb 12, 2018Feb 13, 2018$1,768
@ES H8long4Feb 12, 2018Feb 12, 2018$2,168
@ES H8long8Feb 12, 2018Feb 12, 2018$1,436
@ES H8long8Feb 8, 2018Feb 11, 2018$9,836
@ES H8long4Feb 7, 2018Feb 8, 2018$1,668
@ES H8long4Feb 7, 2018Feb 7, 2018$3,218
@ES H8long4Feb 6, 2018Feb 6, 2018$7,968
HRB1720V23 long1Aug 30, 2017Oct 23, 2017($15)
SLV1720V15 long1Sep 8, 2017Oct 23, 2017($3)
SEE1720V37 long1Sep 8, 2017Oct 23, 2017($36)
ANF1720V12 long1Sep 8, 2017Oct 23, 2017($28)
UNG1720V6 long1Aug 29, 2017Oct 23, 2017($12)
M1720V19 long1Sep 8, 2017Oct 23, 2017($23)
URBN1720V19 long1Sep 8, 2017Oct 23, 2017($40)
MAT1720V13 long1Sep 8, 2017Oct 23, 2017($10)
APC1720V35 long1Aug 29, 2017Oct 23, 2017($39)
CTL1720V16 long1Sep 8, 2017Oct 23, 2017($26)
THC1720V14 long1Sep 8, 2017Oct 19, 2017$42
WIN1720V2 long1Sep 8, 2017Oct 2, 2017$5
VIX1720I13 long3Sep 20, 2017Sep 20, 2017($47)
VIX1720I13 long3Sep 5, 2017Sep 19, 2017($512)
KR1720V18 long1Sep 8, 2017Sep 8, 2017$5
FCX1720V13 long1Sep 8, 2017Sep 8, 2017$3
DVN1720V28 long1Sep 8, 2017Sep 8, 2017$6
MRO1720V10 long1Sep 8, 2017Sep 8, 2017$3

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.