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Aggressive Futures

Futures · Futures · Started Apr 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
40.2%
Max Drawdown
23.9%
Trades
2106
Win Trades
56.0%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
13.0%

About this strategy

Aggressive Futures is a trend and counter trend trading system currently only focusing on NQ, ES, and YM. This is an aggressive strategy.

Targets and stops are used in each trade.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures. Assume you will lose money. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201715.120.99.71.610.10.5-1.04.411.197.1
2018-0.9-6.42.40.50.86.1-2.8-3.50.613.3-9.4-0.7-1.7
2019-0.73.6-5.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-2.8
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/3/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age116 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades2106
# Profitable1179
% Profitable56.0%
Avg trade duration24.4 minutes
Max peak-to-valley drawdown23.9%
drawdown periodOct 15, 2018 - Feb 07, 2019
Annual Return (Compounded)40.2%
Avg win$221
Avg loss$203

Ratios

W:L ratio1.39
Sharpe Ratio0.45
Sortino Ratio0.82
Calmar Ratio10.49

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life224.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)72.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)40.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.4%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)15.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity26.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss7.5%
Chance of 20% account loss2.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated34.7%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)383
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)837
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)825

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$203
Avg Win$221
# Winners1179
Sum Trade PL (losers)$187,754
Sum Trade PL (winners)$260,511
Num Months Winners15
# Losers927
% Winners56.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table115

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)24.35
Avg Position Time (hrs)0.41
Avg Trade Length0
Last Trade Ago2782

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index-12.27

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-10.18
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.28
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats34.57
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats50.99
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.74
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.20
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.10

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.81
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.47
df20
t3.40
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.14
Sortino ratio43.83
Upside Potential Ratio44.74
Upside part of mean0.82
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms3
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion0.81
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.01
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.73
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.78
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error19
t(b)0.98
p(b)0.36
t(a)3.25
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.28
Treynor index (mean / b)1.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.78
Mean0.74
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.62
df20
t3.60
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.93
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.30
Sortino ratio39.92
Upside Potential Ratio40.83
Upside part of mean0.76
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms3
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion0.74
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.01
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.72
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error19
t(b)1.05
p(b)0.35
t(a)3.47
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.15
Treynor index (mean / b)1.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.72
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.74
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)4.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)4.38
df477
t5.92
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.86
Sortino ratio11.59
Upside Potential Ratio17.05
Upside part of mean1.09
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms260
N negative terms218
N of observations478
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.74
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.49
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error476
t(b)0.14
p(b)0.44
t(a)5.91
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.99
Treynor index (mean / b)96.12
Jensen alpha (a)0.74
Mean0.73
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)4.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)4.36
df477
t5.90
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.84
Sortino ratio11.24
Upside Potential Ratio16.67
Upside part of mean1.08
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms260
N negative terms218
N of observations478
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.73
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.73
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error476
t(b)0.14
p(b)0.44
t(a)5.89
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.97
Treynor index (mean / b)97.10
Jensen alpha (a)0.73
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.43
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.23
df130
t2.29
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio6.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation6.03
Sortino ratio9.31
Upside Potential Ratio16.06
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms54
N negative terms77
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.03
Mean of criterion0.43
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.43
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)-0.30
p(b)0.52
t(a)2.28
p(a)0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.80
Treynor index (mean / b)-24.81
Jensen alpha (a)0.43
Mean0.42
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.21
df130
t2.29
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio6.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation6.01
Sortino ratio9.08
Upside Potential Ratio15.82
Upside part of mean0.73
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms54
N negative terms77
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.05
Mean of criterion0.42
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.42
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)-0.31
p(b)0.52
t(a)2.27
p(a)0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.78
Treynor index (mean / b)-24.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.42
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations21
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.01
Median1.04
Quartile 31.11
Maximum1.36
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.03
Mean of quarter 31.07
Mean of quarter 41.19
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.31
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations478
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low26
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high51
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.16
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low15
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high14
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.48
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.02
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations41
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high0.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.61
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.00
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-23
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)115
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.63
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)53.40
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs53.40
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal12.16
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.62
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)17.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs35.51
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal61.77
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.50
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.56
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)8.99
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs8.99
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal38.07

Trading record

Placed 1030 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@NQ H9short9Mar 1, 2019Mar 1, 2019$1,143
@NQ H9long9Mar 1, 2019Mar 1, 2019($522)
@NQ H9short21Mar 1, 2019Mar 1, 2019($3,633)
@NQ H9long3Mar 1, 2019Mar 1, 2019$186
@NQ H9long3Mar 1, 2019Mar 1, 2019$321
@NQ H9short3Mar 1, 2019Mar 1, 2019$111
@NQ H9short3Mar 1, 2019Mar 1, 2019($354)
@NQ H9long6Feb 28, 2019Feb 28, 2019($93)
@NQ H9short3Feb 28, 2019Feb 28, 2019$906
@NQ H9short3Feb 27, 2019Feb 27, 2019$786
@NQ H9short6Feb 27, 2019Feb 27, 2019($918)
@NQ H9long1Feb 26, 2019Feb 26, 2019($108)
@NQ H9short3Feb 26, 2019Feb 26, 2019$451
@NQ H9long1Feb 26, 2019Feb 26, 2019$167
@NQ H9short3Feb 26, 2019Feb 26, 2019$686
@NQ H9short1Feb 25, 2019Feb 25, 2019$27
@NQ H9short1Feb 25, 2019Feb 25, 2019$52
@NQ H9long1Feb 25, 2019Feb 25, 2019$27
@NQ H9long4Feb 25, 2019Feb 25, 2019$758
@NQ H9long6Feb 25, 2019Feb 25, 2019($1,758)
@NQ H9long1Feb 25, 2019Feb 25, 2019$67
@NQ H9long2Feb 25, 2019Feb 25, 2019$189
@NQ H9long1Feb 25, 2019Feb 25, 2019($33)
@NQ H9short1Feb 25, 2019Feb 25, 2019$27
@NQ H9short1Feb 25, 2019Feb 25, 2019$67
@NQ H9long3Feb 22, 2019Feb 22, 2019$576
@NQ H9long3Feb 22, 2019Feb 22, 2019($114)
@NQ H9long3Feb 22, 2019Feb 22, 2019$561
@NQ H9long3Feb 21, 2019Feb 21, 2019$576
@NQ H9long2Feb 21, 2019Feb 21, 2019($436)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.