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Volatility Invest

Equity · Stocks · Started Apr 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.1%
Max Drawdown
20.7%
Trades
72
Win Trades
52.8%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
11.3%

About this strategy

This 100% mechanical strategy trades short VXX which holds long exposure to VIX-futures and long SVXY which is the inverse of VXX with 1/2 leverage. The goal is to profit from calm markets and reversals of volatility spikes. You can easily trade this system manually. I broadcast the signals including stops and targets for the coming week every Friday after market close. There can be periods where the system does not trade due to unfavorable market conditions. I will keep subscribers updated about the system status.

If you prefer autotrading you can find additional information about scaling here:
https://support.collective2.com/hc/en-us/articles/202933834-AutoTrade-Configuration-Scaling-Max-Auto-Stop-Loss

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2017-0.4-0.10.12.6-1.53.21.7-0.1-0.15.6
2018-0.11.7-0.12.12.9-0.42.6-0.12.4-7.40.7-14.5-11.2
201910.02.74.4-0.1-8.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.1
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/1/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age117 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades72
# Profitable38
% Profitable52.8%
Avg trade duration3.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown20.7%
drawdown periodNov 08, 2018 - Dec 27, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)0.1%
Avg win$1,050
Avg loss$1,106

Ratios

W:L ratio1.06
Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Sortino Ratio-0.33
Calmar Ratio0.07

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.16
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life220.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-223.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity16.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss41.5%
Chance of 20% account loss1.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.8%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,106
Avg Win$1,050
# Winners38
Sum Trade PL (losers)$37,593
Sum Trade PL (winners)$39,916
Num Months Winners13
# Losers34
% Winners52.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table115

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)5662.07
Avg Position Time (hrs)94.37
Avg Trade Length3.90
Last Trade Ago2706

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.53
Daily leverage (max)1.01

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.05
Treynor Index-0.09

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-14.97
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.02
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats50.93
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats23.53
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.34
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.22
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.02
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.18
df37
t0.32
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.93
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.28
Sortino ratio0.23
Upside Potential Ratio1.28
Upside part of mean0.12
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms30
N negative terms8
N of observations38
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.01
r0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error36
t(b)1.25
p(b)0.11
t(a)-0.18
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)0.26
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean0.01
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.11
df37
t0.20
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.21
Sortino ratio0.14
Upside Potential Ratio1.19
Upside part of mean0.12
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms30
N negative terms8
N of observations38
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.01
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error36
t(b)1.39
p(b)0.09
t(a)-0.29
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)0.15
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.02
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.20
df835
t0.36
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.30
Sortino ratio0.27
Upside Potential Ratio4.66
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms684
N negative terms152
N of observations836
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error834
t(b)4.91
p(b)0
t(a)-0.06
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.09
Treynor index (mean / b)0.35
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
Mean0.01
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.16
df835
t0.28
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.26
Sortino ratio0.20
Upside Potential Ratio4.57
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms684
N negative terms152
N of observations836
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error834
t(b)4.89
p(b)0
t(a)-0.09
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.09
Treynor index (mean / b)0.28
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.23
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.12
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations38
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.61
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.53
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations836
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low152
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high190
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.52
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations21
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high0.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.74
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.28
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.95
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-1068854720
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)49
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.15
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.20
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.07
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.21
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.26
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 111 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
VXX short1970May 28, 2019May 31, 2019($4,519)
SVXY long1070Mar 25, 2019Mar 29, 2019$2,412
SVXY long1040Mar 18, 2019Mar 22, 2019($2,032)
SVXY long1050Mar 11, 2019Mar 15, 2019$3,362
SVXY long1250Feb 25, 2019Mar 7, 2019($2,927)
SVXY long1050Feb 19, 2019Feb 22, 2019$2,148
SVXY long1050Feb 11, 2019Feb 15, 2019$840
SVXY long1120Jan 7, 2019Jan 11, 2019$2,473
SVXY long1100Jan 2, 2019Jan 4, 2019$2,224
SVXY long1156Dec 24, 2018Dec 27, 2018($1,677)
SVXY long1100Dec 17, 2018Dec 20, 2018($1,639)
SVXY long1100Dec 10, 2018Dec 14, 2018($88)
SVXY long1073Dec 3, 2018Dec 6, 2018($4,526)
SVXY long1095Nov 26, 2018Nov 30, 2018$2,409
SVXY long1100Nov 19, 2018Nov 20, 2018($3,043)
SVXY long1115Nov 12, 2018Nov 13, 2018($2,281)
SVXY long1110Nov 5, 2018Nov 9, 2018$2,740
SVXY long1135Oct 29, 2018Nov 2, 2018$1,241
SVXY long1100Oct 22, 2018Oct 23, 2018($2,837)
SVXY long872Oct 15, 2018Oct 19, 2018$81
SVXY long404Oct 8, 2018Oct 10, 2018($832)
SVXY long400Oct 1, 2018Oct 5, 2018($1,414)
SVXY long400Sep 24, 2018Sep 28, 2018$10
SVXY long402Sep 17, 2018Sep 21, 2018$255
SVXY long2528Sep 10, 2018Sep 14, 2018$1,129
SVXY long998Jul 9, 2018Jul 13, 2018$295
SVXY long1495Jul 3, 2018Jul 6, 2018$768
SVXY long1495Jul 2, 2018Jul 2, 2018$405
SVXY long977Jun 25, 2018Jun 25, 2018($806)
SVXY long1657Jun 11, 2018Jun 21, 2018($278)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.