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NQ El Dorado

Futures · Futures · Started Mar 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
14.6%
Max Drawdown
33.3%
Trades
91
Win Trades
27.5%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
17.2%

About this strategy

Please read the document and perform your due diligence before subscribing/trading this system. The link below is to the basic system parameters, such as how much capital is required for the system, the system objectives, what is expected of the system, etc

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vSYoGW5YKvkxT294RQsqmf5GnYzBduYtYJJyBaJDd86hcitgnXKV4v-pa1Qa0TiZ3KGXV1Y0y3fXvfg/pub


Momentum Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20172.65.615.6-1.614.3-2.3-2.27.8-1.410.658.3
20183.010.6-0.85.5-4.75.8-2.94.30.5-0.46.1-0.628.4
2019-4.61.71.11.1-7.51.3-4.50.9-3.1-3.0-0.1-1.5-17.2
202011.215.2-30.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-10.9
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/28/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age116 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades91
# Profitable25
% Profitable27.5%
Avg trade duration4.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown33.3%
drawdown periodFeb 17, 2020 - March 29, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)14.6%
Avg win$11,468
Avg loss$3,440

Ratios

W:L ratio1.26
Sharpe Ratio0.22
Sortino Ratio0.32
Calmar Ratio0.44

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life231.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)40.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)14.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)5.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity47.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss24.5%
Chance of 20% account loss4.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.4%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)444
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)888
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)762

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$3,440
Avg Win$11,467
# Winners25
Sum Trade PL (losers)$227,019
Sum Trade PL (winners)$286,687
Num Months Winners20
# Losers66
% Winners27.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table116

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)6153.92
Avg Position Time (hrs)102.57
Avg Trade Length4.30
Last Trade Ago2381

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.88
Daily leverage (max)6.76

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.04
Treynor Index0.22

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.09
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades4.65
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-2.44
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats63.86
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats6.82
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.10
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.09
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.21

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.18
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.60
df34
t1.05
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.76
Sortino ratio0.95
Upside Potential Ratio2.38
Upside part of mean0.46
Downside part of mean-0.28
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms17
N of observations35
Mean of predictor0.01
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.04
r0.57
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.77
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error33
t(b)4.04
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.23
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.48
Treynor index (mean / b)0.24
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.14
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.44
df34
t0.77
p0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.59
Sortino ratio0.63
Upside Potential Ratio2.00
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms17
N of observations35
Mean of predictor-0.02
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.05
r0.64
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.80
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error33
t(b)4.82
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.10
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.44
Treynor index (mean / b)0.17
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
Mean0.14
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.74
df770
t1.28
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.40
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.89
Sortino ratio1.10
Upside Potential Ratio6.68
Upside part of mean0.87
Downside part of mean-0.73
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms216
N negative terms555
N of observations771
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error769
t(b)5.36
p(b)0
t(a)1.26
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)0.81
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
Mean0.12
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.65
df770
t1.11
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.79
Sortino ratio0.94
Upside Potential Ratio6.48
Upside part of mean0.86
Downside part of mean-0.74
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms216
N negative terms555
N of observations771
Mean of predictor0.01
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error769
t(b)5.52
p(b)0
t(a)1.12
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)0.69
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.30
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.21
df130
t-0.86
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.56
Sortino ratio-1.46
Upside Potential Ratio3.78
Upside part of mean0.78
Downside part of mean-1.09
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms103
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.22
Mean of criterion-0.30
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.02
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.28
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error129
t(b)1.88
p(b)0.40
t(a)-0.81
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.01
Jensen alpha (a)-0.28
Mean-0.33
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.33
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.32
df130
t-0.94
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.45
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.45
Sortino ratio-1.57
Upside Potential Ratio3.64
Upside part of mean0.77
Downside part of mean-1.11
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms103
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.30
Mean of criterion-0.33
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.02
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.30
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error129
t(b)2.05
p(b)0.39
t(a)-0.86
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.05
Jensen alpha (a)-0.30
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations35
Minimum0.73
Quartile 10.98
Median1.01
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.20
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.12
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.73
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.72
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.28
Number of observations771
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low153
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high161
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.30
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low26
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high28
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.32
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.27
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations17
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.05
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.31
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high0.31
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.27
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.29
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.31
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.31
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-275017152
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)41
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.67
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.79
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.15
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.54
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.95
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.93
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.28
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.26
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.86
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.47
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-8.06

Trading record

Placed 85 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@MNQ M0long4Mar 26, 2020Mar 30, 2020$700
@MNQ M0long16Mar 20, 2020Mar 20, 2020($4,999)
@NQ M0short4Mar 13, 2020Mar 13, 2020($17,912)
@NQ H0long6Mar 4, 2020Mar 5, 2020($17,628)
@NQ H0long6Mar 3, 2020Mar 3, 2020($22,548)
@NQ H0short1Mar 2, 2020Mar 2, 2020($3,178)
@NQ H0long24Jan 8, 2020Feb 20, 2020$47,768
@NQ Z9long4Dec 9, 2019Dec 10, 2019($2,352)
@NQ Z9long2Oct 9, 2019Oct 9, 2019($3,996)
@NQ Z9short2Oct 9, 2019Oct 9, 2019($1,106)
@NQ Z9short2Sep 30, 2019Sep 30, 2019($646)
@NQ Z9short2Sep 25, 2019Sep 30, 2019($806)
@NQ Z9long4Sep 18, 2019Sep 18, 2019($2,492)
@NQ Z9long4Sep 13, 2019Sep 15, 2019($3,452)
@NQ U9long4Sep 11, 2019Sep 13, 2019$1,908
@NQ U9short4Sep 10, 2019Sep 11, 2019($3,132)
@NQ U9long4Sep 4, 2019Sep 10, 2019$8,048
@NQ U9short4Sep 2, 2019Sep 3, 2019($4,812)
@NQ U9long4Aug 29, 2019Aug 30, 2019$12,228
@NQ U9long2Aug 21, 2019Aug 23, 2019($4,076)
@NQ U9long2Aug 1, 2019Aug 1, 2019($3,106)
@NQ U9short2Aug 1, 2019Aug 1, 2019($3,176)
@NQ U9long4Jul 23, 2019Jul 31, 2019($2,982)
@NQ U9long4Jul 18, 2019Jul 19, 2019($3,732)
@NQ U9short4Jul 18, 2019Jul 18, 2019($5,492)
@NQ U9long4Jul 10, 2019Jul 17, 2019$4,878
@NQ U9long4Jun 28, 2019Jul 8, 2019$3,608
@NQ U9long2Jun 28, 2019Jun 28, 2019($786)
@NQ U9short4Jun 26, 2019Jun 28, 2019($1,212)
@NQ M9long2May 16, 2019May 20, 2019($2,696)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.