Elite Vol Trader
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- 1.5%
- Max Drawdown
- 25.4%
- Trades
- 86
- Win Trades
- 43.0%
- Profit Factor
- 1.10
- Win Months
- 1.7%
About this strategy
**You get access to both of our strategies for just $99/month.
We seek to capture the risk premiums (Roll-Yield/Contango) present in the VIX term structure, without taking undue risk. While we make quick adjustments to changes in the VIX term structure, we maintain a long-term perspective and accept that short-term drawdowns will inevitably happen from time-to-time.
Key Characteristics
1) No Overnight Positions
2) Utilize Intraday Stop-Losses
3) Strategically Alter Allocations to Manage Drawdowns
4) Execute Trades using Market-on-Open and Market-on-Close orders (for auto-traders, MOC orders will be replicated by placing a market order at 15:59 ET)
5) Long Only Trades in Volatility ETN’s
To accommodate varying risk tolerances, we offer two different strategies – one with higher potential reward, and one with lower expected drawdowns.
Elite Vol Trader:
Offers higher potential reward in exchange for higher potential short-term drawdowns. Will often (but not always) use leverage – so allocations can be over 100% on an intraday basis. Returns tend to be more volatile than our Conservative Vol Trader strategy. Our benchmark is an XIV Buy and Hold approach.
Conservative Vol Trader:
Offers potential for lower short-term drawdowns in exchange for lower expected returns. Does not use leverage – so allocations will never be over 100% on an intraday basis. Returns tend to be less volatile than our Elite Vol Trader strategy. Our benchmark is an S&P 500 Buy and Hold approach.
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | -1.2 | 10.6 | -3.8 | -5.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | ||
| 2018 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2019 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2020 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2021 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 3/6/2017 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $25,000 |
| Age | 117 months |
| What it trades | Stocks |
| # Trades | 86 |
| # Profitable | 37 |
| % Profitable | 43.0% |
| Avg trade duration | 6.7 hours |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | 25.4% |
| drawdown period | May 17, 2017 - June 27, 2017 |
| Cumul. Return | 0.6% |
| Avg win | $672 |
| Avg loss | $464 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 1.09 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.22 |
| Sortino Ratio | -0.37 |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.26 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | -0.02 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 219.1% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | -3.0% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | 1.5% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant) | 0.0% |
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | 0.9% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | 19.5% |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 1.0% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 1.0% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 53.0% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 12.5% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 1.0% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 1.2% |
|---|
Popularity
| Popularity (Today) | 451 |
|---|---|
| Popularity (Last 6 weeks) | 867 |
| Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale) | 651 |
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 0 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $464 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $672 |
| # Winners | 37 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $22,722 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $24,850 |
| Num Months Winners | 2 |
| # Losers | 49 |
| % Winners | 43.0% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 0 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 116 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 400.27 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 6.67 |
| Avg Trade Length | 0.30 |
| Last Trade Ago | 3392 |
Regression
| Alpha | 0 |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.01 |
| Treynor Index | 0.62 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.02 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0.02 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.03 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0.01 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | 18.78 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | -1.04 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 59.56 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 31.17 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 0.36 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.37 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | 0.05 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| Mean | 0.33 |
|---|---|
| SD | 0.22 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 1.49 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 1.07 |
| df | 3 |
| t | 0.86 |
| p | 0.23 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -2.20 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 4.96 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -2.43 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 4.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 9.53 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 11.79 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.41 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.08 |
| Upside SD | 0.21 |
| Downside SD | 0.03 |
| N nonnegative terms | 2 |
| N negative terms | 2 |
| N of observations | 4 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.04 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.33 |
| SD of predictor | 0.04 |
| SD of criterion | 0.22 |
| Covariance | 0.01 |
| r | 0.74 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 3.74 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.16 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.03 |
| DF error | 2 |
| t(b) | 1.57 |
| p(b) | 0.13 |
| t(a) | 0.49 |
| p(a) | 0.34 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -6.50 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 13.97 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -1.27 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 1.60 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.09 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.16 |
| Mean | 0.31 |
| SD | 0.21 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 1.46 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 1.06 |
| df | 3 |
| t | 0.85 |
| p | 0.23 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -2.21 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 4.93 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -2.44 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 4.56 |
| Sortino ratio | 8.84 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 11.10 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.39 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.08 |
| Upside SD | 0.20 |
| Downside SD | 0.03 |
| N nonnegative terms | 2 |
| N negative terms | 2 |
| N of observations | 4 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.04 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.31 |
| SD of predictor | 0.04 |
| SD of criterion | 0.21 |
| Covariance | 0.01 |
| r | 0.74 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 3.55 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.15 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.03 |
| DF error | 2 |
| t(b) | 1.57 |
| p(b) | 0.13 |
| t(a) | 0.49 |
| p(a) | 0.34 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -6.19 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 13.30 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -1.20 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 1.51 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.09 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.15 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.07 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.09 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.02 |
| Mean | 0.24 |
| SD | 0.32 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.77 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.76 |
| df | 95 |
| t | 0.47 |
| p | 0.32 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -2.47 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 4.01 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -2.48 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 4.00 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.30 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 11.10 |
| Upside part of mean | 2.09 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.85 |
| Upside SD | 0.25 |
| Downside SD | 0.19 |
| N nonnegative terms | 45 |
| N negative terms | 51 |
| N of observations | 96 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.07 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.24 |
| SD of predictor | 0.07 |
| SD of criterion | 0.32 |
| Covariance | -0.01 |
| r | -0.27 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -1.19 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.04 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.10 |
| DF error | 94 |
| t(b) | -2.71 |
| p(b) | 1.00 |
| t(a) | 0.64 |
| p(a) | 0.26 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -2.06 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.32 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.69 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 1.34 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.21 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.33 |
| Mean | 0.19 |
| SD | 0.32 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.62 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.61 |
| df | 95 |
| t | 0.37 |
| p | 0.35 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -2.62 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 3.85 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -2.63 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 3.85 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.02 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 10.81 |
| Upside part of mean | 2.06 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.87 |
| Upside SD | 0.25 |
| Downside SD | 0.19 |
| N nonnegative terms | 45 |
| N negative terms | 51 |
| N of observations | 96 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.07 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.19 |
| SD of predictor | 0.07 |
| SD of criterion | 0.32 |
| Covariance | -0.01 |
| r | -0.27 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -1.18 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.27 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.09 |
| DF error | 94 |
| t(b) | -2.71 |
| p(b) | 1.00 |
| t(a) | 0.54 |
| p(a) | 0.30 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -2.04 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.31 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.73 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 1.28 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.17 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.27 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.03 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.04 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.03 |
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.01 |
ORDER STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 4 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.98 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.99 |
| Median | 1.01 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.04 |
| Maximum | 1.12 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.98 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.99 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.02 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.12 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.05 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.25 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.12 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 96 |
| Minimum | 0.97 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.99 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.01 |
| Maximum | 1.07 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.98 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.99 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.03 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.02 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 2 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.02 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.06 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -0.15 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.03 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -0.31 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.02 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 2 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.01 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.01 |
| Median | 0.01 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.01 |
| Maximum | 0.02 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.02 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.01 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 4 |
| Minimum | 0.03 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.05 |
| Median | 0.06 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.11 |
| Maximum | 0.20 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.03 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.06 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.07 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.20 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.06 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.25 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.20 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 41 |
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.0% |
COMBINED STATISTICS
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.36 |
|---|---|
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.40 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 24.70 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 24.70 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 4.22 |
| j156mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j157mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.23 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.25 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 1.23 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 1.23 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 6.45 |
Trading record
Placed 67 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XIV | long | 455 | Jul 14, 2017 | Jul 14, 2017 | $733 |
| VXX | long | 3250 | Jul 13, 2017 | Jul 13, 2017 | ($428) |
| VXX | long | 3280 | Jul 12, 2017 | Jul 12, 2017 | ($530) |
| VXX | long | 3225 | Jul 11, 2017 | Jul 11, 2017 | ($231) |
| VXX | long | 3290 | Jul 10, 2017 | Jul 10, 2017 | ($1,124) |
| VXX | long | 3015 | Jul 7, 2017 | Jul 7, 2017 | ($668) |
| VXX | long | 3165 | Jul 6, 2017 | Jul 6, 2017 | $1,388 |
| VXX | long | 3200 | Jul 3, 2017 | Jul 5, 2017 | $1,115 |
| VXX | long | 3165 | Jun 30, 2017 | Jun 30, 2017 | $58 |
| VXX | long | 3085 | Jun 29, 2017 | Jun 29, 2017 | $1,846 |
| VXX | long | 3055 | Jun 28, 2017 | Jun 28, 2017 | ($463) |
| VXX | long | 2980 | Jun 27, 2017 | Jun 27, 2017 | $889 |
| VXX | long | 3000 | Jun 26, 2017 | Jun 26, 2017 | ($335) |
| VXX | long | 2990 | Jun 23, 2017 | Jun 23, 2017 | ($394) |
| VXX | long | 2950 | Jun 22, 2017 | Jun 22, 2017 | ($300) |
| VXX | long | 2980 | Jun 21, 2017 | Jun 21, 2017 | $293 |
| XIV | long | 460 | Jun 20, 2017 | Jun 20, 2017 | ($621) |
| VXX | long | 3110 | Jun 19, 2017 | Jun 19, 2017 | ($720) |
| VXX | long | 3060 | Jun 16, 2017 | Jun 16, 2017 | ($36) |
| VXX | long | 3110 | Jun 15, 2017 | Jun 15, 2017 | ($1,187) |
| VXX | long | 3220 | Jun 14, 2017 | Jun 14, 2017 | ($166) |
| VXX | long | 3220 | Jun 13, 2017 | Jun 13, 2017 | ($520) |
| VXX | long | 3140 | Jun 12, 2017 | Jun 12, 2017 | $121 |
| VXX | long | 3095 | Jun 9, 2017 | Jun 9, 2017 | $1,388 |
| VXX | long | 3110 | Jun 8, 2017 | Jun 8, 2017 | ($876) |
| VXX | long | 3100 | Jun 7, 2017 | Jun 7, 2017 | ($5) |
| VXX | long | 3040 | Jun 6, 2017 | Jun 6, 2017 | $512 |
| VXX | long | 3095 | Jun 5, 2017 | Jun 5, 2017 | ($160) |
| VXX | long | 3115 | Jun 2, 2017 | Jun 2, 2017 | ($161) |
| VXX | long | 3145 | Jun 1, 2017 | Jun 1, 2017 | ($445) |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.