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IBD Tiger

Equity · Stocks · Started Jan 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
10.6%
Max Drawdown
38.7%
Trades
1358
Win Trades
53.7%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
10.2%

About this strategy

Swing trading of leading growth stocks
Long only
No day trades

Sector: Technology Short-term Reversal

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20173.91.02.95.2-5.2-6.36.714.58.213.7-4.13.250.1
2018-4.0-11.3-0.9-5.48.5-9.6-8.03.63.90.00.00.0-22.5
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/2/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age119 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades1358
# Profitable729
% Profitable53.7%
Avg trade duration4.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown38.7%
drawdown periodJan 19, 2018 - Aug 09, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)10.6%
Avg win$115
Avg loss$124

Ratios

W:L ratio1.08
Sharpe Ratio0.01
Sortino Ratio0.01
Calmar Ratio0.25

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.08
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life248.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-10.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)10.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity45.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss64.5%
Chance of 20% account loss19.5%
Chance of 30% account loss3.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)39
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)39

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$124
Avg Win$115
# Winners729
Sum Trade PL (losers)$77,721
Sum Trade PL (winners)$83,956
Num Months Winners12
# Losers629
% Winners53.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct206

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table118

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)6481.03
Avg Position Time (hrs)108.02
Avg Trade Length4.50
Last Trade Ago2926

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.05
Treynor Index0.01

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-514.39
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.30
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats87.26
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats66.42
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.48
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.60
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.00

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.14
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.50
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.48
df19
t0.64
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.00
Sortino ratio0.74
Upside Potential Ratio2.40
Upside part of mean0.46
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms8
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.01
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error18
t(b)1.40
p(b)0.34
t(a)-0.18
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.49
Treynor index (mean / b)0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean0.10
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.35
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.34
df19
t0.45
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.86
Sortino ratio0.49
Upside Potential Ratio2.12
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.34
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms8
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.01
r0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.28
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.09
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error18
t(b)1.42
p(b)0.34
t(a)-0.34
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.45
Treynor index (mean / b)0.08
Jensen alpha (a)-0.09
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
Mean0.16
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df451
t0.92
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.19
Sortino ratio0.92
Upside Potential Ratio7.79
Upside part of mean1.35
Downside part of mean-1.20
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms272
N negative terms180
N of observations452
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.01
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.72
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error450
t(b)7.51
p(b)0
t(a)0.27
p(a)0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.37
Treynor index (mean / b)0.22
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
Mean0.13
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.58
df451
t0.76
p0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.07
Sortino ratio0.75
Upside Potential Ratio7.58
Upside part of mean1.34
Downside part of mean-1.21
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms272
N negative terms180
N of observations452
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.01
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.72
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error450
t(b)7.50
p(b)0
t(a)0.13
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)0.18
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.07
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.28
df130
t-0.20
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.49
Sortino ratio-0.37
Upside Potential Ratio7.09
Upside part of mean1.37
Downside part of mean-1.44
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms63
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.01
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.81
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.23
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error129
t(b)3.91
p(b)0.30
t(a)-0.68
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.44
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.09
Jensen alpha (a)-0.23
Mean-0.10
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.41
df130
t-0.29
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.37
Sortino ratio-0.53
Upside Potential Ratio6.87
Upside part of mean1.36
Downside part of mean-1.46
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms63
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion-0.10
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.01
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.82
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.26
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error129
t(b)3.94
p(b)0.30
t(a)-0.77
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.42
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.13
Jensen alpha (a)-0.26
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations20
Minimum0.82
Quartile 10.97
Median1.03
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.82
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.01
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.25
Number of observations452
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low22
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.29
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.32
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.06
Median0.11
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.31
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.11
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.31
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations20
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.47
Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.05
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-39
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)202
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.35
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.35
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.71
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.15
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.40
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.97
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.02
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.10
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.47
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.68
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.05

Trading record

Placed 768 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
NFLX long8Sep 27, 2018Sep 28, 2018$7
ALRM long76Sep 26, 2018Sep 28, 2018$26
ABMD long11Sep 19, 2018Sep 28, 2018$697
GRUB long40Sep 14, 2018Sep 28, 2018($203)
WWE long65Sep 7, 2018Sep 28, 2018$569
VEEV long52Sep 7, 2018Sep 28, 2018$216
FIVE long39Sep 7, 2018Sep 28, 2018($169)
PAYC long36Sep 7, 2018Sep 28, 2018($38)
VNOM long221Sep 5, 2018Sep 28, 2018$513
MTCH short2Sep 26, 2018Sep 27, 2018($0)
HQY short1Sep 26, 2018Sep 27, 2018($0)
NOW long21Sep 13, 2018Sep 27, 2018($47)
FTNT long62Sep 7, 2018Sep 27, 2018$180
HQY long29Sep 24, 2018Sep 26, 2018$42
MTCH long24Sep 25, 2018Sep 26, 2018$48
ALRM short1Sep 25, 2018Sep 26, 2018($1)
MTCH short2Sep 24, 2018Sep 25, 2018($5)
ALRM long72Sep 20, 2018Sep 25, 2018($29)
HQY short1Sep 20, 2018Sep 24, 2018$1
MTCH long91Sep 17, 2018Sep 24, 2018($470)
HQY long58Sep 14, 2018Sep 20, 2018($35)
ABMD short1Sep 18, 2018Sep 19, 2018($8)
ABMD long13Sep 7, 2018Sep 18, 2018($218)
MTCH short1Sep 14, 2018Sep 17, 2018$1
MTCH long71Sep 11, 2018Sep 14, 2018$347
GRUB long39Sep 7, 2018Sep 13, 2018$56
TTD long20Sep 7, 2018Sep 11, 2018$17
ALGN long13Aug 31, 2018Sep 6, 2018($178)
VEEV long29Aug 27, 2018Sep 6, 2018($2)
TREX long33Aug 24, 2018Aug 27, 2018($67)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.